地震综合效应场函数及其在地震预报中的应用──（一）地震综合效应场函数及其计算方法     

罗兰格 《华北地震科学》1994,(3)

在系统地分析了目前各种测震学地震预报方法科学思路的基础上,认为测震学地震预报方法基本上可以分为两大类。一类是以已经发生的一些地震作为未来可能发生的地震的“因”,即由于已经发生的地震对区域应力场的影响,导致未来发生较强地震。这一类包括的预报方法较多,如空区、条带、ｂ值、地震迁移、相关地震等等及其由此衍生出来的各种方法。另一类是把已经发生的一些地震作为区域应力场增强的“果”,即已经发生的地震是区域应力场增强过程中的一种反映,而未来地震不一定是已经发生的地震所导致的结果。这一类包括“地震窗口”、小震群活动等方法。针对第一类方法,各种预报方法都是力图从地震三要素中提取未来地震的信息,而具体作法又都是利用地震三要素这个多维空间的某个剖面。为了从地震活动诸要素的多维空间提取综合信息,我们对每个地震加入了破裂面方位,构成了地震第四要素,并依据地震４要素建立了地震综合效应场函数。地震综合效应场函数概括了多种测震学地震预报方法的科学思路和预报经验,从而可以形成测震学的综合预报方法。  相似文献   

Densities of Huanghe River estuary and Bohai Bay waters     

陈国华  季荣  谢式南  张力军 《中国海洋湖沼学报》1994,12(2):130-135

The densities of 36 water samples from the Huanghe River estuary and Bohai Bay were determinedby a magnetic float densimcter under three temperatures from 15℃ to 25℃.All the measured densities ofsamples were greater than that of the values calculated from the International Equation of State of Seawater.The differences between the measured and calculated densities increased with the decrease of salinities.The dif-ferences appeared exponentially correlated with[Ca~(2+)]/s,[Mg~(2+)]/s and[SO_4~(2-)]/s,and had"s"type curverelationship with the alkalinity in all salinity range.But in the salinity ranging from 25.72 to 31.57,therelationships were all linear.The density difference can be estimated from the equation △ρ（10~3kg·m~(-3)）=（-2.79+236.5([Ca~(2+)]/s)/(-9.7464×10~（-3）+[Ca~(2+)]/s).It was the high alkalinity and[Ca~(2+)]/s that resulted in the measured densi-ties of seawaters being higher than the calculated densities in the Huanghe estuary and Bohai Bay.  相似文献   

Estimation of covariance matrix from geochemical data with observations below detection limits     

Chang-Jo F. Chung 《Mathematical Geology》1993,25(7):851-865

Multivariate statistical analyses have been extensively applied to geochemical measurements to analyze and aid interpretation of the data. Estimation of the covariance matrix of multivariate observations is the first task in multivariate analysis. However, geochemical data for the rare elements, especially Ag, Au, and platinum-group elements, usually contain observations the below detection limits. In particular, Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) for the rare elements produces multilevel and possibly extremely high detection limits depending on the sample weight. Traditionally, in applying multivariate analysis to such incomplete data, the observations below detection limits are first substituted, for example, each observation below the detection limit is replaced by a certain percentage of that limit, and then the standard statistical computer packages or techniques are used to obtain the analysis of the data. If a number of samples with observations below detection limits is small, or the detection limits are relatively near zero, the results may be reasonable and most geological interpretations or conclusions are probably valid. In this paper, a new method is proposed to estimate the covariance matrix from a dataset containing observations below multilevel detection limits by using the marginal maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE) method. For each pair of variables, sayY andZ whose observations containing below detection limits, the proposed method consists of three steps: (i) for each variable separately obtaining the marginal MLE for the means and the variances, , , , and forY andZ: (ii) defining new variables by and and lettingA=C+D andB=C–D, and obtaining MLE for variances, and forA andB; (iii) estimating the correlation coefficient _YZ by and the covariance _YZ by . The procedure is illustrated by using a precious metal geochemical data set from the Fox River Sill, Manitoba, Canada.  相似文献   

勘查油气田化探新方法——土壤相态烃测量法     

李生郁  徐丰孚 《物探与化探》1993,17(6):441-448

烃气测量是油气化探最主要的方法。目前应用的烃气测量方法有两类:一类是测量土壤中游离烃气如K—V指纹法、吸附丝法、物上气法及直接取土壤气测量法等。此类方法由于需特殊设备及壤气测量方法本身固有的缺陷,目前还未得到普遍应用,另一类为土壤吸附烃气法即国内外目前普遍使用的酸解烃气法、此法在多数油气田上取得好效果,但也有相当多的地区如黄土、荒漠及水网发育等特殊景观区效果不好或不显著。本文介绍一种新的烃气测量法──土壤相态烃测量法。这是用一种特殊的技术,只选择性提取由油气藏渗漏过程中保存在运移通道围岩及近地表土壤各种次生矿物结构中以"穴居"态存在的轻烃组分。"穴居"态烃为累积性的指标,不受外界温度、修水等的影响,保存较牢固,测定结果稳定。相态烃法避免了酸解烃法存在的生物成因烃、矿物同生烃及碳酸盐的干扰影响,提高了测量指标的信噪比,突出了应有的异常。本方法已在黄土厚覆盖区两个已知油气田和一个风成沙覆盖的断裂发育油田上试验获得成功,结果表明相态烃法优于酸解烃法。  相似文献   

The deposit size frequency method for estimating undiscovered uranium deposits     

Richard B. McCammon  Warren I. Finch 《Natural Resources Research》1993,2(2):106-112

The deposit size frequency (DSF) method has been developed as a generalization of the method that was used in the National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) program to estimate the uranium endowment of the United States. The DSF method overcomes difficulties encountered during the NURE program when geologists were asked to provide subjective estimates of (1) the endowed fraction of an area judged favorable (factorF) for the occurrence of undiscovered uranium deposits and (2) the tons of endowed rock per unit area (factorT) within the endowed fraction of the favorable area. Because the magnitudes of factorsF andT were unfamiliar to nearly all of the geologists, most geologists responded by estimating the number of undiscovered deposits likely to occur within the favorable area and the average size of these deposits. The DSF method combines factorsF andT into a single factor (F·T) that represents the tons of endowed rock per unit area of the undiscovered deposits within the favorable area. FactorF·T, provided by the geologist, is the estimated number of undiscovered deposits per unit area in each of a number of specified deposit-size classes. The number of deposit-size classes and the size interval of each class are based on the data collected from the deposits in known (control) areas. The DSF method affords greater latitude in making subjective estimates than the NURE method and emphasizes more of the everyday experience of exploration geologists. Using the DSF method, new assessments have been made for the young, organic-rich surficial uranium deposits in Washington and idaho and for the solution-collapse breccia pipe uranium deposits in the Grand Canyon region in Arizona and adjacent Utah.  相似文献   

Multi-level dissipation element analysis of the surface temperature of the South China Sea     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2021

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近海核电厂核素地下水释放通量的模型计算方法     

朱君  李婷  陈超  谢添  张艾明 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2021,51(1):201-211

为了定量计算陵区近海核电站排水管线泄漏情景下核素通过地下水途径向海洋环境的释放通量，以某近海核电站为例进行研究。首先，应用GOCAD软件建立三维地形地质模型，刻画地层的分布、剥蚀以及倾向等特点；然后，运用地下水数值模拟软件FEFLOW精细刻画丘陵区地下水系统的补给、径流和排泄特征；最后，以不被吸附滞留的核素³H和被吸附滞留的核素⁹⁰Sr、¹³⁷Cs为对象，通过实验测定了⁹⁰Sr、¹³⁷Cs在不同岩土介质中的分配系数，模拟计算了排水管线连续渗漏60 a后³H、⁹⁰Sr、¹³⁷Cs在地下水中的放射性分布及释放。结果表明：³H迁移速度基本与地下水流速一致，地下水中的最大放射性浓度为0.285 0 Bq/L，第20 000天时向收纳水域的释放通量达到最大值，约526 Bq/d；⁹⁰Sr吸附性能相对较弱，最大迁移距离约80 m，地下水中的最大放射性浓度为0.032 1 Bq/L；¹³⁷Cs吸附能力较强，相当长的时间内被滞留在管线附近，地下水中最大放射性浓度分别为6.840×10^-3 Bq/L，释放通量为0 Bq/d。由弥散度的不确定分析可知，弥散度越大，地下水中³H的最大放射性浓度越小，向海洋环境的释放通量越多。  相似文献   

Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Syria     

Abdallah I. Husein Malkawi  Robert Y. Liang  Jamal H. Nusairat  Azm S. Al-Homoud 《Natural Hazards》1995,12(2):139-151

Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate ₄ and the upper bound magnitudem ₁ are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures.  相似文献   

Estimation for partially observed Markov processes     

M. E. Thompson  T. N. Kaseke 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1995,9(1):33-47

Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (X_n, n 0) or (X_t, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Y_n, n 0) or (Y_t, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.  相似文献   

Fluctuation in the zooplankton community in two solar salt ponds,Aveiro, Portugal     

N. Vieira  F. Amat 《International Journal of Salt Lake Research》1995,4(4):327-333

The zooplankton of two salt ponds at Aveiro was studied to evaluate its density and diversity. Samples were collected biweekly from the salt ponds Esmolas and Tanoeiras. Samples were first separated into Holoplankton (Copepoda, nauplii,Acartia, Ostracoda and Anostraca) and Meroplankton (Mollusca, Insecta, annelidan larvae and Ichthyoplankton). The Holoplankton was mainly composed of:Acartia tonsa, Acartia sp.,Eurytemora velox, Artemia sp., and harpacticoids and calanoids. In both salt ponds, species diversity was identical, but total zooplankton density was higher in the Tanoeiras salt pond, probably because its physical and chemical characteristics allowed the development of stable communities.  相似文献