Quantifying volcanic ash fall hazard to electricity infrastructure     

Mark Bebbington  Shane J. Cronin  Ian Chapman  Michael B. Turner 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

Quantifying the potential ash fall hazards from re-awakening volcanoes is a topic of great interest. While methods for calculating the probability of eruptions, and for numerical simulation of tephra dispersal and fallout exist, event records at most volcanoes that re-awaken sporadically on decadal to millennial cycles are inadequate to develop rigorous forecasts of occurrence, much less eruptive volume. Here we demonstrate a method by which eruption records from radiocarbon-dated sediment cores can be used to derive forecasting models for ash fall impacts on electrical infrastructure. Our method is illustrated by an example from the Taranaki region of New Zealand. Radiocarbon dates, expressed as years before present (B.P.), are used to define an age-depth model, classifying eruption ages (with associated errors) for a circa 1500–10 500 year B.P. record at Mt. Taranaki (New Zealand). In addition, data describing the youngest 1500 years of eruption activity is obtained from directly dated proximal deposits. Absence of trend and apparent independence in eruption intervals is consistent with a renewal model using a mix of Weibulls distributions, which was used to generate probabilistic forecasts of eruption recurrence. After establishing that interval length and tephra thickness were independent in the record, a thickness–volume relationship (from [Rhoades, D.A., Dowrick, D.J., Wilson, C.J.N., 2002. Volcanic hazard in New Zealand: Scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo volcano. Nat. Hazards, 26:147–174]) was inverted to provide a frequency–volume relationship for eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation of the thickness–volume relationship was then used to produce probable ash fall thicknesses at any chosen site. Several critical electrical infrastructure sites in the Taranaki Region were analysed. This region, being the only gas and condensate-producing area in New Zealand, is of national economic importance, with activities in and around the area depending on uninterrupted power supplies. Forecasts of critical ash thicknesses (1 mm wet and 2 mm dry) that may cause short-circuiting, surges or power shutdowns in substations show that the annual probabilities of serious impact are between ~ 0.5% and 27% over a 50 year period. It was also found that while large eruptions with high ash plumes tend to affect “expected” areas in relation to prevailing winds, the direction impacts of small ash falls are far less predictable. In the Taranaki case study, areas out of normal downwind directions, but close to the volcano, have probabilities of impact for critical thicknesses of 1–2 mm of around half to 60% of those in downwind directions and therefore should not be overlooked in hazard analysis. Through this method we are able to definitively show that the potential ash fall hazard to electrical infrastructure in this area is low in comparison to other natural threats, and provide a quantitative measure for use in risk analysis and budget prioritisation for hazard mitigation measures.  相似文献   

新疆地震台网超短波传输系统及故障分析     

王宝柱  李晓东  袁顺 《内陆地震》2008,22(4)

介绍了新疆地震台网子台供电系统中太阳能电池、太阳能充电控制器、免维护蓄电池以及稳压电源等主要设备和超短波数传系统中发射机、接收机、数字复、分接设备以及天线等设备的日常维护,对超短波数传的原理、场强的接收以及设备的一些参数,作了简单的阐述,对台站设备日常出现的问题和故障,作了简单分析,并给出了一些解决的办法。并就1次典型的台网故障现象分析及排除作了详尽的阐述。  相似文献   

Bank permeability in an Australian ephemeral dry‐land stream: variation with stage resulting from mud deposition and sediment clogging     

David L. Dunkerley 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2008,33(2):226-243

Percolation of flood waters into the bed and banks of ephemeral streams provides one of the key mechanisms responsible for transmission loss. However, there are very few published estimates of the rates at which water can enter stream‐bank sediments, and little is known about the variation in bank permeability with elevation above the bed and the resulting effects on transmission loss in floods of different magnitudes. This paper presents the results of 69 field determinations of bank infiltrability made on Fowlers Creek, an ephemeral dry‐land stream located in arid western New South Wales, Australia. Fowlers Creek carries high concentrations of suspended sediments, which are deposited as mud drapes on the bed, banks and floodplain. Results demonstrate that infiltration rates are lowest at the base of the banks, and tend to increase steadily with elevation on the bank, even above the apparent upper limit of mud drapes. In parallel, the texture of the bank sediments (assessed from samples of the uppermost 10 cm) becomes coarser with elevation above the bed. This pattern is inferred to relate to the delivery of silts and clays into pore spaces in the bank sediments by percolating flood waters. The patterns of infiltration rate and sediment texture mapped in the field are reasoned to be the product of many clogging episodes in past flood events having different peak stages. The increase in infiltration rate and mean particle size up the banks reflects lower frequencies of submergence and clogging of the upper banks by large floods, and more frequent inundation and clogging of the lower banks by sub‐bank‐full flows. The stage‐related changes in bank permeability provide a mechanism that can drive variations in transmission loss among floods having different peak stages and hydrograph shapes. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Study on forward modeling of through-casing resistivity logging     

《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2008,(Z2)

Through-casing resistivity logging (TCRL) is a new kind of logging method for formation evaluation,reservoir monitoring and saturation changes tracking. In this paper,the basic principle of TCRL is de-tailed,and the modified transmission line equation method (MTLEM) is first proposed in China. The MTLEM has been employed to simulate the responses of TCRL,on the basis of which,the effects of formation resistivity,cement and casing on the responses of TCRL are analyzed,and the signals in-duced in different formations are also calculated,which can help the design of TCRL tool and data processing and interpretation in China.  相似文献   

Calculation of reflection and transmission coefficients for qP waves incident on a planar interface between isotropic and triclinic media     

Lei Li 《Acta Geophysica》2008,56(2):518-528

In the paper by Chattopadhyay and Rajneesh (2006, “Reflection and refraction of waves at the interface of an isotropic medium over a highly anisotropic medium’, Acta Geophysica, vol. 54, no. 3, pp. 239–249), the authors proposed a process to calculate R/T (reflection and transmission) coefficients at the interface between isotropic and triclinic half-spaces, with incident qP waves in triclinic media. Unfortunately, besides several misprints, the authors made a fatal assumption that there is no transmitted SH wave generated in isotropic media, which led the successive analytical derivations and numerical calculations thoroughly wrong. In this paper, the errors are analyzed at length and corrections are given. Then an alternative approach to solve the problem is proposed and numerical results are shown and discussed.  相似文献   

A new framework for evaluating along-wind responses of a transmission tower     

Guohuan Liu  Hongnan Li 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2009,8(1):87-93

In this paper, an analytical framework to evaluate the along-wind-induced dynamic responses of a transmission tower is presented. Two analytical models and a new method are developed: (1) a higher mode generalized force spectrum (GFS) model of the transmission tower is deduced; (2) an analytical model that includes the contributions of the higher modes is further derived as a rational algebraic formula to estimate the structural displacement response; and (3) a new approach, applying load with displacement (ALD) instead of force, to solve the internal force of transmission tower is given. Unlike conventional methods, the ALD method can avoid calculating equivalent static wind loads (ESWLs). Finally, a transmission tower structure is used as a numerical example to verify the feasibility and accuracy of the ALD method.  相似文献   

地域文化景观的起源、传播与演变研究——以赣南八景为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吴水田  游细斌 《热带地理》2009,29(2)

以赣南八景文化景观为例,结合文化地理学景观理论,运用文献资料、历史还原、时空结合等研究方法,在对八景文化景观的起源与演变等文化地理过程进行分析的基础上,探讨其空间分布概貌和流行原因,阐述其传播的途径和特点,揭示了赣南八景文化的圈层式扩散、随城市空间扩展等时空演变规律,指出其在城市非物质文化遗产保护和开发方面的重要地位.  相似文献   

虚拟专用网技术在远程数据传输中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

蒋宁 《地质与资源》2007,16(3):234-236,182

野外地质调查工作者作为远程用户需要与其所在的地质调查研究机构进行数据的安全传输.应用虚拟专用网络技术可以在使用公用网络进行数据传输时保证其安全.本文讨论了虚拟专用网的分类、关键技术,通过分析某地质研究所的网络拓扑,给出了一个虚拟专用网的解决方案,对其中的基于Windows Server 2003的虚拟专用网服务器进行了详细配置.  相似文献   

高频电磁波方法在岩溶发育区土体滑坡调查中的作用   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

李大心 《地质灾害与环境保护》2000,11(2):154-156,167

覆盖在岩溶发育的灰岩上的土体 ,其滑坡形成除了受重力与土的抗剪切能力影响外 ,还往往受到基岩面起伏与岩溶所引起的土体潜蚀的影响。地质雷达和无线电波钻孔透视测量联合调查能比较好地圈定这类滑坡。  相似文献   

SiO₂ precipitation in olivine: ATEM investigation of two dunites annealed at 300 MPa in hydrous conditions     

Paul Raterron  Prame Chopra  Jean-Claude Doukhan 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2000,180(3-4):415-423

Two natural dunites were annealed at pressure P=300 MPa, temperature T=1373, 1473 and 1573 K, and fO₂ within the stability field of olivine. The starting materials contained small amounts of hydroxyls in the form of minor phases of hydrated minerals, which released an aqueous phase during the experiments. A detailed analytical transmission electron microscopy (ATEM) investigation of these materials revealed that small quantities of two types of silica-rich glass formed during heat treatment. The first type of glass, found at triple junctions as rare partially crystallized glass pockets, results from melting dehydration reactions involving the hydrous phases. The second type of glass is found as pure silica precipitates (0.1–0.5 μm in size, for a total of a few 0.1 vol%) within the olivine grains of specimens heated to ≥1473 K. From considerations of the kinetics of the precipitation at 1473 K, we interpret this silica precipitation as resulting from the condensation of olivine metallic vacancies promoted by increasing fluid fugacities during the runs. Our observations, thus, demonstrate that metastable silica can precipitate in olivine from dunites experiencing rapid changes in their thermodynamical environment.  相似文献