对全球大地震预测的验证与分析     

何正檀 《华南地震》1992,12(3):36-45

1980年,笔者应用地震对称迁移图象预测了全球大地震,其中包括12项主要预测意见和5项补充预测意见。近十年间,大多数预测意见已获得令人满意的效果。这说明作为一种新方法,对称迁移图象可能对地震长期预测的实践具有重要意义。  相似文献   

临汾无线遥测台网监控能力评述     

杨志刚 《山西地震》1992,(4)

根据吴开统等人提出的检验地震台网监测效能的几种方法,对临汾无线遥测台网的监控能力进行了检验,得出该遥测台网有较高观测精度的结论,找出了不足,提出了改进措施。  相似文献   

PREDICTIVE ABILITY OF REGRESSION MODELS.PART Ⅰ:STANDARD DEVIATION OF PREDICTION ERRORS (SDEP)     

GABRIELECRUCIANI  MASSIMOBARONI  SERGIOCLEMENTI  GABRIELLECOSTANTINO  DANIELARIGANELLI  BERTSKAGERBERG 《地理学报(英文版)》1992,(6)

The standard deviation of prediction errors(SDEP)is used to evaluate and compare the predictive abilityof some regression models,namely MLR,ACE and linear and non-linear PLS,the last being the bestone.The parameter is determined by a cross-validation approach as an average of several runs obtainedon forming groups in a random way.The variation in SDEP with the number of latent variables in PLSis also discussed.  相似文献   

Analysis of educational factor in regional innovation and the corresponding policy implications     

《地理学报(英文版)》2000,(1)

l Public Educational Outlay is an Important Factor influencing Regional innovationAbility in ChinaInnovation includes a series of achvitjes from ale bed of new idea to produchon design coddle tesAng,manufac~g and marketing. It is also the process of knowledge creating, ti'ansfonning and applying.Regional innovahon system is a netWork promoting innovahon formed by the interachon of differentbranches and orgalhaations in a region. Many factors act upon tile innovahon ability in a specific re…  相似文献   

四维EOF分析检验数值模式模拟气候及其变化能力研究     

赵得明  苏炳凯  汤剑平 《气象学报》2006,64(4):420-431

文章提出了一个四维经验正交函数(4D-EOF)方法,原理是三维经验正交函数(3D-EOF)与扩展经验正交函数(EEOF)简单的组合,此方法不仅提供空间水平分布特征场及其对应的月际变化特征和年际变化特征,而且还提供空间垂直结构特征。利用这个新方法分析东亚季风国际区域模式比较计划(RMIP)MM5V3模拟的1989—1998年10a积分结果———包括中国大部分区域(4941个格点,格距60km)月平均100,500,700,1000hPa4个位势高度场(模拟场)及其距平场;同时分析对应的NCAR/NCEP再分析资料(观测场),进而对比两者检验模式模拟东亚季风气候及其变化能力。对比分析结果表明:对于月平均高度场的第一特征向量场,模式能比较准确地模拟出平均气候场的分布及其垂直相当正压性的结构特征;对于月平均高度距平场第一、二特征向量场,模式对于距平场的模拟也较成功,垂直方向有明显的相当正压性特征;月平均高度场及其距平场相应的月际变化和年际变化特征也在模拟中得到较好的反映。本研究表明:4D-EOF具有综合检验数值模式模拟气候及其变化的能力,而MM5V3模拟20世纪90年代东亚气候及其变化能力是令人满意的。  相似文献   

对若干地震动包线函数的比较分析     

周锡元  杨俊卫  闫维明 《世界地震工程》2006,22(3):1-9

对已经提出的四种经常使用的包线函数模型进行了评价,认为对于评价单峰点包线函数,除了要求形式简单以外,其优劣可以用函数对峰点位置和高峰隆起程度的控制能力作为标准。借助结构动力试验中阻尼比的确定方法,提出用平稳度指数来评价单峰点包线函数平缓程度。据此对四种包线函数的平稳度进行了分析,还对某些包线函数提出了一些改进。通过分析指出如果把“金井清谱”和“Penzien谱”等模型,看作是时间域中包线,这两个模型的调节能力都很强,而且比较方便,其中“Penzien谱”模型可以用来表示具有两个峰点的包线。文中的比较分析结果可以用于地震动包线函数选择和模拟。  相似文献   

增强气候诊断及预测程序通用性的一种方法     

余卫东  董博  陈巧  常军 《气象与环境科学》2007,30(2):80-82

针对现有气候统计诊断与预测程序在通用性方面的不足，以线性趋势估计的源程序为例，介绍了在微机平台上，利用Fortran90的动态数组特性，通过增加参数控制文件增强该程序通用性的思路和方法，并利用VisualBasic语言对改进后的程序进行可视化设计，增强了程序的易用性。  相似文献   

基于自适应Kalman滤波的BP神经网络及其在高程拟合中的应用     

聂建亮  冯来平 《测绘科学与工程》2007,27(3):27-30

针对传统BP神经网络容易发散、泛化能力差等问题，采用自适应Kalman滤波方法训练神经网络的连接权。与Kalman滤波训练连接权和传统的BP算法相比，该方法提高了BP神经网络计算精度，增强了泛化能力。实测数据的计算结果证明了该方法的可行性与有效性。  相似文献   

增强气候诊断及预测程序通用性的一种方法     

余卫东  董博  陈巧  常军 《河南气象》2007,(2)

针对现有气候统计诊断与预测程序在通用性方面的不足,以线性趋势估计的源程序为例,介绍了在微机平台上,利用Fortran 90的动态数组特性,通过增加参数控制文件增强该程序通用性的思路和方法,并利用V isualBasic语言对改进后的程序进行可视化设计,增强了程序的易用性。  相似文献   

Testing the Ability of Numerical Model to Simulate Climate and Its Change With 4D-EOF Analysis     

ZHAO Deming  SU Bingkai  TANG Jianping 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2007,21(2):179-191

The four-dimensional empirical orthogonal function (4D-EOF), which in reality is a simple combination of three-dimensional EOF (3D-EOF) and extended EOF (EEOF), is put forward in this paper to test the ability of numerical model to simulate climate and its change. The 4D-E0F analysis is able to reveal not only the horizontal characteristic pattern of analyzed variable, and its corresponding annual and inter-annual variations, but also the vertical structural characteristics. The method suggested is then used to analyze the monthly mean 100-, 500-, 70G-, and 1000-hPa geopotential height fields (4941 grids and grid spacing 60 km) and their anomaly fields in 1989-1998 simulated by the MM5V3 from the RMIP (Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project for East Asia)-II, as well as their counterparts (used as the observed fields) from the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis dataset in the same period. The ability of MM5V3 in simulating East Asian climate and its change is tested by comparing the 4D-EOF analysis results of the simulated and observed datasets. The comparative analyzed results show that the horizontal pattern of the first eigenvector of the observed monthly mean geopotential height fields and its vertical equivalent barotropic feature were well simulated; the simulations of the first two eigenvectors of the observed monthly mean geopotential height anomaly fields were also successful for their horizontal abnormal distributions and significant equivalent barotropic features in the vertical were well reproduced; and furthermore, the observed characteristics, such as the variation with height, the annual and inter-annual variations of the monthly mean geopotential height/anomaly fields were also well reflected in the simulation. Therefore, the 4D-EOF is able to comprehensively test numerical model's ability of simulating the climate and its change, and the simulation ability of MM5V3 for the climate and its change in East Asia in the 1990s was satisfactory.  相似文献