Optimization of nonconventional wells under uncertainty using statistical proxies     

Vincent Artus  Louis J. Durlofsky  Jérôme Onwunalu  Khalid Aziz 《Computational Geosciences》2006,10(4):389-404

The determination of the optimal type and placement of a nonconventional well in a heterogeneous reservoir represents a challenging optimization problem. This determination is significantly more complicated if uncertainty in the reservoir geology is included in the optimization. In this study, a genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the deployment of nonconventional wells. Geological uncertainty is accounted for by optimizing over multiple reservoir models (realizations) subject to a prescribed risk attitude. To reduce the excessive computational requirements of the base method, a new statistical proxy (which provides fast estimates of the objective function) based on cluster analysis is introduced into the optimization process. This proxy provides an estimate of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the scenario performance, which enables the quantification of proxy uncertainty. Knowledge of the proxy-based performance estimate in conjunction with the proxy CDF enables the systematic selection of the most appropriate scenarios for full simulation. Application of the overall method for the optimization of monobore and dual-lateral well placement demonstrates the performance of the hybrid optimization procedure. Specifically, it is shown that by simulating only 10% or 20% of the scenarios (as determined by application of the proxy), optimization results very close to those achieved by simulating all cases are obtained.  相似文献   

城市化过程中土地征用风险表征及对策     

骆东奇  罗光莲 《地域研究与开发》2006,25(4):103-106,116

从土地征用基本概念和基本特征着手，描述了土地征用的主要风险，其表现为土地征用权力滥用、侵害失地农民的权益、诱发集体土地黑市、诱发社会矛盾等方面。分析了产生风险的“公共利益需要”缺乏明确界定、土地征用的补偿标准偏低或滞后、土地征用及相关制度不健全或存在缺陷等主要原因。提出了控制与规避风险的对策与措施：严格限定公益性用地范围，提高征地补偿标准，扩大补偿范围，完善相关制度，严格土地征用程序。  相似文献   

Quantification of the risk associated with high levels of mercury pollution at Temirtau, Kazakhstan     

Huiwen HSIAO Susanne M. Ullrich Trevor W. Tanton 《中国地球化学学报》2006,25(B08):233-233

This research aims to establish the risks of hurnan exposure to modeling approach. The study site was located on the River Nura 1990s, an acetaldehyde production plant located in the industrial high environmental mercury levels, based on a quantitative risk in central Kazakhstan. From the 1950s until its closure in the mid city of Temirtau released mercury-containing wastewater into the river. River sediments are highly contaminated with mercury up to a distance of 25 km and beyond. In addition, a local power station released an estimated 6 million tonnes of fly-ash into the water and the mercury has become quite tightly associated with the ash deposits. River water, fish and agricultural land in the floodplain are also contaminated with mercury, yet the risks posed to the local population have not been evaluated to date. In June and July 2005, we took samples of soil, interior and exterior dust, drinking water, and food from individual households, communal areas and markets. Additionally, water and sediment samples and fish were taken from the river. Interviews were conducted with householders to establish their age and body weight, general living conditions and sources of irrigation and drinking water. A food frequency questionnaire （FFQ） was designed to investigate the frequencies of consumption of several common regional food items, including fish from the fiver and/or local market. Human hair samples were also collected to estimate the mercury bioburden and to enable the validity of the modeling approach to be established. The paper expands on the main pathways of contamination and looks at linkages between exposure pathways and mercury concentrations found in human hair. Uncertainties inherent in risk analysis as well as their influence on the relative importance of different exposure routes are also discussed.  相似文献   

A Decision Support System for the Evaluation of Eco-engineering Strategies for Slope Protection     

S. B. Mickovski  L. P. H. Van Beek 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2006,24(3):483-498

A decision support system (DSS) has been developed to assist expert and non-expert users in the evaluation and selection of eco-engineering strategies for slope protection. This DSS combines a qualitative hazard assessment of erosion and mass movements with a detailed catalogue of eco-engineering strategies for slope protection of which the suitability is evaluated in relation to the data entered. The slope decision support system (SDSS) is a knowledge based DSS in which knowledge is stored in frames containing rules that can evaluate the available information for a project, stored as project specific information (PSI) in a data file. The advantages of such a system are that it accepts incomplete information and that the qualitative nature of the information does not instil the user with a sense of unjustified exactitude. By its multidisciplinary and progressive nature, the DSS will be of value during the initial stages of an eco-engineering project when data collection and the potential of different eco-engineering strategies are considered. The accent of the output of the DSS is on the application of eco-engineering strategies for slope protection as an environmentally-friendly solution aiding sustainable development. For its acceptance within the engineering community, the DSS needs to prove its predictive capacity. Therefore, its performance has been benchmarked against successful and unsuccessful cases of slope stabilisation using eco-engineering. The target audience and the areas of application of this DSS are reviewed and the strategies for further development in this area suggested.  相似文献   

Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98     

Jochen Schwarz  Mathias Raschke  Holger Maiwald 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):259-282

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.  相似文献   

Site Effects Study in the Serravalle Village (NE Italy) by Means of Spectral Ratios Analyses Relatively to Multiple Reference Sites     

Andrea Restivo  Carla Barnaba  Alberto Michelini 《Natural Hazards》2006,39(1):31-49

The area of Serravalle, sited in the northern part of the town of Vittorio Veneto (TV), NE Italy, has been the target of a seismic microzonation campaign. 10 seismic stations have been deployed for a 7 months period to record in continuous mode. Three stations were installed on bedrock outcrops and seven on sedimentary sites with variable cover thickness. Spectral analyses have been performed on the collected data-set using the Generalized Inversion Technique (GIT, e.g. Andrews, 1986). In particular, spectral ratios have been calculated for each station relatively to the average of the three reference, bedrock sites. The spectral ratios provide quantitative estimates of the seismic motion amplifications which occur in each of the monitored sites. Two sites show high values of amplification, 5 times larger than signal amplitude at the reference sites, in correspondence of well discernible peak frequencies of 5 Hz. Results for the other stations show smaller amounts of site amplification spreading over a broad range of frequencies. Sites where the highest amplifications were recorded all lie on the left bank of the Meschio River and in areas farther away from its outlet into the plain correlating with the presence of thick layers of Quaternary deposits.  相似文献   

金沙江干热河谷区土壤侵蚀危险度评价——以云南元谋为例     

周红艺  熊东红杨忠 《山地学报》2006,24(B10):52-56

利用空间主成分分析方法，选取降水、坡度、植被、土地利用、土壤类型、人口、高程等作为评价指标，建立空间主成分评价模型Pi=0．78X1＋0．06X2＋0．05X3＋0．04X4，将研究区分为无险型、轻险型、危险型、强险型和极险型五种类型，较为准确地得到了危险度综合评价结果。因此，空间主成分分析模型，在土壤侵蚀危险程度评价方面的应用较为成功，是一种科学有效的研究方法。  相似文献   

The effects of hazard zone information on judgements about earthquake damage     

Michael Crozier  John McClure  Jessica Vercoe  Marc Wilson 《Area》2006,38(2):143-152

This study investigates the extent to which people's views on the causes and preventability of earthquake damage might be influenced by their degree of exposure to hazard as well as what information they have been given about the hazard. The results show that the provision of hazard zoning information influences judgements on preventability and causes of damage, but this effect depends on the degree of hazard faced by residents. In low hazard zones, information leads to the view that causes are manageable, whereas in high hazard zones information may induce a degree of fatalism. The use of public information in risk management needs to take into account the degree of risk faced by the recipients.  相似文献   

Arsenic, antimony and other toxic elements in the drinking water of Eastern Thessaly in Greece and its possible effects on human health     

A. Kelepertsis  D. Alexakis  K. Skordas 《Environmental Geology》2006,50(1):76-84

Twenty-six groundwater samples were collected from the Eastern Thessaly region and analysed by ICP-ES for these elements: Al, As, P, Pb, Zn, Mn, Fe, Cr, Sb, Cu, Na, Br, Cl, Si, Mg, Ag, Be, Bi, Dy, Er, Eu, Au, Ge, Ho, In, Ir, Os, Pt, Re, Rh, Ru, Lu, Hf, Hg, Tm, Zr and Nb. The objectives of the study were to assess the level of water contamination with respect to the EC and the USEPA health-based drinking water criteria. The geology of the studied area includes schists, amphibolites, marbles of Palaeozoic age, ophiolites, limestones of Triassic and Cretaceous age, Neogene and Quaternary deposits. The element ranges for groundwater samples are: Al 7–56 μg l⁻¹, As 1–125 μg l⁻¹, Br 6–60 μg l⁻¹, Cl 500–25,000 μg l⁻¹, Cr 1–6 μg l⁻¹, Cu 1–15 μg l⁻¹, Fe 10–352 μg l⁻¹, Mg 2,940–40,100 μg l⁻¹, Mn 0–8 μg l⁻¹, Na 3,650–13,740 μg l⁻¹, P 20–48 μg l⁻¹, Pb 0–7 μg l⁻¹, Sb 0–21 μg l⁻¹, Si 3,310–13,240 μg l⁻¹ and Zn 7–994 μg l⁻¹. The results of groundwater analyses from the region of Eastern Thessaly showed elevated concentrations of As and Sb. Factor analysis explained 77.8% of the total variance of the data through five factors. Concentration of Br, Cl, Mg, Na and Si is directly related to the presence of saltwater in the aquifer, so grouping of these variables in factor 1 probably reflects the seawater intrusion. Al, As and Sb are known to form complexes in the environment, so grouping of these elements in factor 2 indicates their similar geochemical behaviour in the environment. The high negative loading of Mn in factor 2 indicates the presence of manganese oxides–hydroxides in the study area. Pb and Zn are associated together in sulphide mineralisation; so grouping of these elements in factor 3 reflects the sulphide mineralization paragenesis in the Melivoia area. P and Cu are associated together in phosphate fertilizers; so grouping of these variables in factor 4 could be related to agricultural practices. Cr, Fe, Mn and Mg are associated together in iron and manganese oxides–hydroxides and the weathering products of the olivine of the ultrabasic rocks; so grouping of these elements in factor 5 reflects the lithology of the area. There is a natural contamination of groundwaters with elevated concentrations of As and Sb due to the presence of the arsenopyrite and stibnite mineralisation in the Melivoia, Sotiritsa and Ano Polydendri areas. Contamination over the health-based drinking water guidelines given by EC and EPA has been investigated from nine sampling sites out of 26 of Eastern Thessaly region.  相似文献   

Environmental and health risk assessment in abandoned mining area, Zlata Idka, Slovakia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

S. Rapant  Z. Dietzová  S. Cicmanová 《Environmental Geology》2006,51(3):387-397

The Zlata Idka village is a typical mountainous settlement. As a consequence of more than 500 years of mining activity, its environment has been extensively affected by pollution from potentially toxic elements. This paper presents the results of an environmental-geochemical and health research in the Zlata Idka village, Slovakia. Geochemical analysis indicates that arsenic (As) and antimony (Sb) are enriched in soils, groundwater, surface water and stream sediments. The average As and Sb contents are 892 mg/kg and 818 mg/kg in soils, 195 mg/kg and 249 mg/kg in stream sediments, 0.028 mg/l and 0.021 mg/l in groundwater and 0.024 mg/l and 0.034 mg/l in surface water. Arsenic and Sb concentrations exceed upper permissible limits in locally grown vegetables. Within the epidemiological research the As and Sb contents in human tissues and fluids have been observed (blood, urine, nails and hair) in approximately one third of the village’s population (120 respondents). The average As and Sb concentrations were 16.3 μg/l and 3.8 μg/l in blood, 15.8 μg/l and 18.8 μg/l in urine, 3,179 μg/kg and 1,140 μg/kg in nails and 379 μg/kg and 357 μg/kg in hair. These concentrations are comparatively much higher than the average population. Health risk calculations for the ingestion of soil, water, and vegetables indicates a very high carcinogenic risk (>1/1,000) for as content in soil and water. The hazard quotient [HQ=average daily dose (ADD)/reference dose (RfD)] calculation method indicates a HQ>1 for groundwater As and Sb concentrations.  相似文献