Ensemble mean forecast skill and applications with the T213 ensemble prediction system   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sijia Li  Yuan Wang  Huiling Yuan  Jinjie Song  Xin Xu 《大气科学进展》2016,33(11):1297-1305

Ensemble forecasting has become the prevailing method in current operational weather forecasting. Although ensemble mean forecast skill has been studied for many ensemble prediction systems(EPSs) and different cases, theoretical analysis regarding ensemble mean forecast skill has rarely been investigated, especially quantitative analysis without any assumptions of ensemble members. This paper investigates fundamental questions about the ensemble mean, such as the advantage of the ensemble mean over individual members, the potential skill of the ensemble mean, and the skill gain of the ensemble mean with increasing ensemble size. The average error coefficient between each pair of ensemble members is the most important factor in ensemble mean forecast skill, which determines the mean-square error of ensemble mean forecasts and the skill gain with increasing ensemble size. More members are useful if the errors of the members have lower correlations with each other, and vice versa. The theoretical investigation in this study is verified by application with the T213 EPS. A typical EPS has an average error coefficient of between 0.5 and 0.8; the 15-member T213 EPS used here reaches a saturation degree of 95%(i.e., maximum 5% skill gain by adding new members with similar skill to the existing members) for 1–10-day lead time predictions, as far as the mean-square error is concerned.  相似文献   

Isotopic and geochemical identifications of groundwater salinisation processes in Salalah coastal plain,Sultanate of Oman     

《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2016,76(2):243-255

A detail investigation was carried out to improve the current knowledge of groundwater salinisation processes in coastal aquifers using hydrochemical and isotopic parameters. Data of major ions for 40 wells located in the Salalah plain aquifer, Sultanate of Oman, were collected during pre-monsoon 2004 and analysed. The groundwater changes along the general flow path towards the coast from fresh (EC < 1500 μS/cm), brackish (EC: 1500–3000 μS/cm) and saline (EC > 3000 μS/cm). Results of inverse modeling simulations using PHREEQC show that dissolution of halite may be the main source of Cl and Na in the study area. Ionic delta calculation indicates that the depletion of Na and K and enrichment of Ca and Mg in groundwater were probably attributed to reverse ion exchange reactions. During a sampling campaign conducted in October 2015, 11 groundwater samples were collected for Cl, Br and isotopic analysis (²H/¹⁸O). Molar Cl/Br ratios in fresh groundwater were higher than those of seawater, indicating the impact of halite dissolution on the groundwater quality. For saline groundwater, these ratios were less than those of seawater, showing the influence of anthropogenic input from agriculture on the same. Relatively depleted isotopic signature of all groundwater samples show that the monsoon precipitation is the main source of groundwater recharge in the study area.  相似文献   

混合润湿孔隙介质中油自吸实验研究          下载免费PDF全文

齐育楷  罗晓容  贺永红  党海龙  刘乃贵  雷裕红  张立宽 《地质科学》2015,(4):1208-1217

混合润湿孔隙介质普遍存在, 使得多相流体渗流过程十分复杂, 但对其研究和认识至今仍很肤浅, 是油气运移成藏、剩余油气分布等方面研究中必须解决的关键难题。本文通过对饱和水的混合润湿模型进行油自吸实验, 观察不同混合润湿程度条件下油自吸运移过程, 分析认识混合润湿孔隙介质中多相渗流的机理。实验结果表明, 在混合润湿孔隙介质中油是否能够自发地运移与介质中亲油颗粒的比例关系密切, 但并非简单的单调变化关系。研究认为, 亲油颗粒与亲水颗粒随机分布, 导致多种与喉道配位颗粒的亲油-亲水关系, 当亲油颗粒比例占优才表现为亲油喉道。机理上, 混合润湿孔隙介质中油自吸运移的发生与否及程度取决于亲油喉道在空间上的连通程度, 后者与孔隙介质中亲油颗粒比例相当。仅有当孔隙介质中亲油颗粒足够多, 且组成的亲油喉道能够相互接触形成连续亲油通道时, 油才能够通过自吸运移进入多孔介质。  相似文献   

An advanced hydro-mechanical constitutive model for unsaturated soils with different initial densities     

《Computers and Geotechnics》2015

This paper presents an advanced constitutive model for unsaturated soils, using Bishop’s effective stress (σ′) and the effective degree of saturation (S_e) as two fundamental constitutive variables in the proposed constitutive model. A sub-loading surface and a unified hardening parameter (H) are introduced into the σ′–S_e modelling framework to interpret the effects of initial density on coupled hydro-mechanical behaviour of compacted soils. Compared with existing models in the literature, the main advantage of the proposed model that it is capable of modelling hydro-mechanical behaviour of unsaturated soils compacted to different initial densities, such as the dependence of loading–collapse volume on initial void ratio and density effect on the shearing-induced saturation change. The proposed model requires 13 material parameters, all of which can be calibrated through conventional laboratory tests. Numerical studies are conducted to assess the performance of the model for a hypothetical soil under two typical hydro-mechanical loading scenarios. The proposed advanced unsaturated soil model is then validated against a number of experimental results for both isotropic and triaxial conditions reported in the literature.  相似文献   

智能船舶自动舵系统自适应模糊输出反馈控制     

朱丽燕  李铁山 《南京气象学院学报》2021,13(1):22-28

针对智能船舶自动舵系统,考虑输入饱和、回转角速度未知和指定性能,提出一种自适应模糊控制算法.本文自适应模糊输出反馈算法采用状态观测器、辅助系统和误差转换系统,模糊逻辑系统用于估计未知非线性函数,状态观测器用于估计未知回转角速度状态,辅助系统和误差转换系统分别用于补偿不匹配控制信号和变换航向角追踪误差.基于Lyapunov方法证明了闭环系统内所有信号是有界的,仿真结果进一步验证了本文算法的有效性.  相似文献   

WRF-Solar模式对山东太阳总辐射的模拟效果检验          下载免费PDF全文

董旭光  陈艳春  孟祥新 《山东气象》2021,41(4):36-51

利用专门为太阳能资源评估应用的 WRF-Solar数值模式系统,结合 MODIS 气溶胶光学厚度（AOD550 nm）数据,设置了5种山东区域总辐射模拟方案,使用山东济南、福山、吉县3个太阳辐射站总辐射观测数据,对晴天、阴天、雨天以及四季代表月等逐时总辐射模拟结果进行了对比检验。 结果表明：WRF-Solar数值模式对总辐射模拟能力在晴天和少云天最好,阴雨天较差,四季代表月中,天气过程较少的秋季和冬季模拟效果较好,春季次之,夏季相对较差;晴天和少云天、阴天和雨天以及不考虑天气过程的四季代表月所有日条件下,长、短波辐射方案分别采用RRTMG方案、new Goddard 方案,积云对流参数化方案均采用Grell 3D集合方案,同时使用AOD550 nm的气溶胶数据的总辐射模拟能力最强;WRF-Solar模式中加入 MODIS 气溶胶光学厚度资料后,山东区域晴天总辐射模拟结果明显改善,秋季、冬季代表月亦明显改善,但阴天和雨天总辐射模拟结果改善不明显,低能见度日总辐射模拟结果有所改善。  相似文献   

Using pore-solid fractal dimension to estimate residual LNAPLs saturation in sandy aquifers: A column experiment          下载免费PDF全文

Lin Sun  Shuai-wei Wang  Cai-juan Guo  Chan Shi  Wei-chao Su 《地下水科学与工程》2022,10(1):87-98

The“tailing”effect caused by residual non-aqueous phase liquids(NAPLs)in porous aquifers is one of the frontiers in pollution hydrogeology research.Based on the current knowledge that the residual NAPLs is mainly controlled by the pore structure of soil,this study established a method for evaluating the residual saturation of NAPLs by investigating the fractal dimension of porous media.In this study,the soil column experiments of residual light NAPLs(LNAPLs)in sandy aquifer with different ratios of sands and soil were carried out,and the correlation between the fractal dimension of the medium,the residual of LNAPLs and the soil structure parameters are statistically analyzed,and its formation mechanism and main control factors are discussed.The results show that:Under our experimental condition:(1)the fractal dimension of the medium has a positive correlation with the residual saturation of NAPLs generally,and the optimal fitting function can be described by a quadratic model:S_R=192.02 D2-890.73 D+1040.8;(2)the dominant formation mechanism is:Smaller pores in the medium is related to larger fractal dimension,which leads to higher residual saturation of NAPLs;stronger heterogeneity of the medium is related to larger fractal dimension,which also leads to higher residual saturation of NAPLs;(3)the micro capillary pores characterized by fine sand are the main controlling factors of the formation mechanism.It is concluded that both the theory and the method of using fractal dimension of the medium to evaluate the residual saturation of NAPLs are feasible.This study provides a new perspective for the research of“tailing”effect of NAPLs in porous media aquifer.  相似文献   

Theoretical analyses of nonaqueous phase liquid dissolution‐induced instability in two‐dimensional fluid‐saturated porous media     

Chongbin Zhao  B. E. Hobbs  A. Ord 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2010,34(17):1767-1796

This paper deals with the theoretical aspects of nonaqueous phase liquid (NAPL)‐dissolution‐induced instability in two‐dimensional fluid‐saturated porous media including solute dispersion effects.After some weaknesses associated with the previous work are analyzed and overcome, a comprehensive dimensionless number, known as the Zhao number, is proposed to represent the main driving force and three controlling mechanisms of an NAPL‐dissolution system that has a finite domain. The linear stability analysis is carried out to derive the critical value of the comprehensive dimensionless number of the NAPL‐dissolution system in a limit case as the ratio of the equilibrium concentration to the density of the NAPL approaches zero. As a result, a theoretical criterion that can be used to assess the instability of planar NAPL‐dissolution fronts in two‐dimensional fluid‐saturated porous media of finite domains has been established. Not only can the present theoretical results be used for the theoretical understanding of the effect of solute dispersion on the instability of an NAPL‐dissolution front in the fluid‐saturated porous medium of either a finite domain or an infinite domain, but also they can be used as benchmark solutions for verifying numerical methods employed to simulate detailed morphological evolution processes of NAPL‐dissolution fronts in two‐dimensional fluid‐saturated porous media. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A statistically based runoff‐yield model coupling infiltration excess and saturation excess mechanisms     

Zhongmin Liang  Jun Wang  Binquan Li  Zhongbo Yu 《水文研究》2012,26(19):2856-2865

A statistically based runoff‐yield model is proposed in this paper. The model considers spatial heterogeneities of rainfall, soil infiltration capacity and soil water storage capacity that are main factors controlling runoff‐yield process. It assumes that the spatial variation of rainfall intensity at each time step can be characterized by a probability density function, which is estimated by matching the hyetograph through goodness‐of‐fit measure, whereas the spatial heterogeneities of soil infiltration capacity and soil water storage capacity are described by parabola‐type functions. Surface runoff is calculated according to infiltration excess mechanism; the statistical distribution of surface runoff rate can be deduced with the joint distribution of rainfall intensity and soil infiltration rate, thus obtaining a quasi‐analytical solution for surface runoff. Based on saturation excess mechanism, the groundwater flow (flows below the ground are collectively referred to as groundwater flow) is calculated by infiltration and the probability distribution of soil water storage capacity. Consequently, the total runoff is composed of infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff components. As an example, this model is applied to flood event simulation in Dongwan catchment, a semi‐humid region and a tributary of Yellow River in China. It indicates that the proposed runoff‐yield model could achieve acceptable accuracy. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

粗糙裂隙水、气两相流相对渗透系数模型与数值分析     

盛建龙  韩云飞  叶祖洋  程爱平  黄诗冰 《岩土力学》2020,41(3):1048-1055

粗糙裂隙水、气两相流相对渗透系数是岩体工程多相渗流以及水力耦合分析的重要参数。从粗糙裂隙的细观结构出发，基于毛细吸持理论和立方定理，提出了粗糙裂隙水、气两相流相对渗透系数模型。通过与具有不同空间分布的粗糙裂隙水、气两相流试验数据对比分析，验证了模型的准确性。为进一步验证理论模型对不同粗糙程度裂隙的适用性，基于SRAM与Invasion Percolation模型，提出了粗糙裂隙的开度分布生成以及水、气两相流数值分析方法，计算结果表明理论模型与数值数据基本吻合一致，且优于X模型、V-C模型以及Corey模型。  相似文献