一个混合型热带海洋-大气耦合模式I.模式构成及热带太平洋气候态模拟          下载免费PDF全文

张荣华  曾庆存  周广庆 《大气科学》1997,(2)

本工作发展了一个用于研究热带海洋大气系统相互作用和ＥｌＮｉｎ～ｏ／ＳｏｕｔｈｅｒｎＯｓ－ｃｉｌａｔｉｏｎ动力过程的混合型（ｈｙｂｒｉｄ）耦合模式，其中的大气部分为一个由一阶斜压模表示的自由大气和混合行星边界层所组成的简单热带大气模式（区域为热带太平洋：１２０°Ｅ～８０°Ｗ，３０°Ｎ～３０°Ｓ；水平分辨率为２°×２°），海洋部分为大气物理研究所高分辨率自由表面热带太平洋环流模式（经纬圈方向水平分辨率分别为１°和２°，垂直方向分为不等距的１４层）。两模式间的耦合是这样进行的：简单大气模式计算出海表风应力，热通量由松弛公式计算，淡水通量（蒸发与降水之差）由观测资料给定，它们一起作为海洋环流模式（ＯＧＣＭ）的强迫场；而ＯＧＣＭ计算出海表温度（ＳＳＴ），在其以外地区给定观测到的气候海表温度或陆地温度，作为大气模式的边界条件。本文给出采用逐日、同步耦合方案时模式对热带太平洋气候态模拟结果，表明未采用任何通量修正（ｆｌｕｘｅｓｃｏｒｒｅｃｔｉｏｎ），耦合模式未出现气候漂移（ｃｌｉｍａｔｅｄｒｉｆｔ）现象，并且非常逼真地再现了热带太平洋气候态，特别是海表风场及相伴随的辐合带和降水、海表温度和流场及它们的季节变化。文中还进行  相似文献   

基于Markov链模型的储层岩相随机模拟   总被引：3，自引：4，他引：3  

刘振峰  郝天珧  杨长春 《地球物理学进展》2003,18(4):666-669

在油气储层随机建模研究中，基于Markov链模型的方法是一类较受欢迎的技术，同时也是一类不成熟的技术，问题的症结之一在于侧向的转移概率矩阵很难求取，针对这种情况，作者在深入理解Walther相律的基础上，借鉴模拟退火算法的相应思路，提出了一种岩相模拟的新方法，该方法依据不同岩相的百分比进行随机模拟得到一幅初始图象，而后以按岩相组织剖面得到的垂向和侧向的岩相转移概率矩阵的相似性作为判别标准对图象进行扰动，直至得到满意的图象，二维模型试算结果表明了这种岩相随机模拟方法的可行性。  相似文献   

On Modelling Discrete Geological Structures as Markov Random Fields   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Tommy Norberg  Lars Rosén  Ágnes Baran  Sándor Baran 《Mathematical Geology》2002,34(1):63-77

The purpose of this paper is to extend the locally based prediction methodology of BayMar to a global one by modelling discrete spatial structures as Markov random fields. BayMar uses one-dimensional Markov-properties for estimating spatial correlation and Bayesian updating for locally integrating prior and additional information. The methodology of this paper introduces a new estimator of the field parameters based on the maximum likelihood technique for one-dimensional Markov chains. This makes the estimator straightforward to calculate also when there is a large amount of missing observations, which often is the case in geological applications. We make simulations (both unconditional and conditional on the observed data) and maximum a posteriori predictions (restorations) of the non-observed data using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, in the restoration case by employing simulated annealing. The described method gives satisfactory predictions, while more work is needed in order to simulate, since it appears to have a tendency to overestimate strong spatial dependence. It provides an important development compared to the BayMar-methodology by facilitating global predictions and improved use of sparse data.  相似文献   

模拟退火算法在水驱气藏物质平衡计算中的应用     

杨宇  杨君 《矿物岩石》2002,22(4):90-92

在利用物质平衡方程计算水驱气藏地质储量时 ,传统的试凑法虽然有一定科学合理性 ,但由于存在很多不确定参数 ,在精确计算中因工作量大 ,很难推广。为此 ,在分析水驱气藏物质平衡方程的基础上 ,建立最优化模型 ,并引入全局寻优性较好的模拟退火方法进行求解。经实际计算表明 ,方法具有全局收敛性 ,计算结果有较高可信度。  相似文献   

极大熵准则在降雨强度-历时-频率模型参数估计中的应用     

陆宝宏  陆晓明  汤有光 《水文》2002,22(1):17-19,57

根据频率与重现期的关系推导出三类常用降雨强度-历时-频率模型的无条件及条件概率分布(概率密度)函数及与模型相对应的约束。极大熵与极大似然准则产生一致估计,本文尝试基于极大熵准则建立降雨强度-历时-频率模型参数估计的优化模型,应用模拟退火算法求解该优化模型。根据比较发现,极大熵估计有时比常用的极大似然估计和最小二乘估计更精确。  相似文献   

GPS网络RTK综合误差线性内插法模拟实验计算     

张照杰  徐治宝  魏世春  王霞 《测绘信息与工程》2008,33(1):14-15

讨论了综合误差内插法数学模型的正确性,进行了模拟计算,说明一般内插值均可满足通常工程的精度要求.  相似文献   

SURFACE ROUGHNESS EVOLUTION OF SOILS CONTAINING ROCK FRAGMENTS     

BAS VAN WESEMAEL  JEAN POESEN  TOMS DE FIGUEIREDO  GERARD GOVERS 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1996,21(5):399-411

Soil surface roughness is a dynamic property which determines, to a large extent, erosion and infiltration rates. Although soils containing rock fragments are widespread in the Mediterranean region, the effect of the latter on surface roughness evolution is yet poorly understood. Therefore, laboratory experiments were conducted in order to investigate the effect of rock fragment content, rock fragment size and initial moisture content of the fine earth on the evolution of interrill surface roughness during simulated rainfall. Surface elevations of simulated plough layers along transects of 50 cm length were measured before and after simulated rainfall (totalling 192.5 mm, I = 70 mm h⁻¹) with a laser microreliefmeter. The results were used to investigate whether systematic variations in interrill surface roughness along stony hillslopes in southeastern Spain could be attributed to rock fragment cover and rock fragment size. Soil surface elevations were measured along the contour lines (50 cm long transects) with a contact microreliefmeter. Roughness was expressed by two parameters related to the height and frequency of roughness elements, respectively: standard deviation of de-trended surface elevations (random roughness: RR), and correlation length (L) derived from exponential fits of the autocorrelation functions. The frequently used assumption that surface roughness (RR) of cultivated topsoils decreases exponentially with cumulative rain is not valid for soil surfaces covered by rock fragments. The RR of soils containing small rock fragments (1.7–2.7 cm) increased with cumulative rainfall after an initial decrease during the first 17.5 mm of rainfall. For soils containing large rock fragments (7.7 cm), RR increased with rainfall above a threshold rock fragment content by mass of 52 per cent. For a given rainfall application, RR increased non-linearly with rock fragment content. The correlation length for soils containing small rock fragments decreases with rock fragment content and is significantly lower than for soils with large rock fragments. Soils covered with small rock fragments (large RR and small L) are thus well protected against raindrop impact by a water film in the depressions between the rock fragments. On abandoned agricultural fields along hillslopes in southeastern Spain, rock fragments cover increases non-linearly with slope owing to selective erosion of finer particles on steep slopes. The increase of surface cover by large rock fragments (>25 mm) is even more pronounced. The simultaneous increase of rock fragment cover and rock fragment size with slope explains the non-linear increase of RR with slope. These relationships differ for soils covered by platy misaschists and those covered with cubic andesites. The variations in correlation length along the hillslopes are not clear, probably owing to a simultaneous increase in rock fragment cover and rock fragment size. These findings may provide a better prediction of soil surface roughness of interrill areas covered by rock fragments using slope angle and lithology.  相似文献   

黄土陡坡裸露坡耕地浅沟发育过程研究   总被引：30，自引：8，他引：22  

郑粉莉  武敏  张玉斌  丁晋利 《地理科学》2006,26(4):438-442

根据黄土陡坡地浅沟地形特征参数,在室内人工建筑浅沟发育初期的雏形模型,研究浅沟发育不同阶段沟头溯源侵蚀、沟壁扩张和沟槽下切变化规律,分析浅沟侵蚀对坡面侵蚀产沙的贡献。结果表明,浅沟发育不同阶段对应于不同的浅沟侵蚀过程。浅沟发育初期,沟头溯源侵蚀、沟壁扩展和沟床下切均相对活跃,且溯源侵蚀速率大于沟壁扩张速率和沟床下切速率;浅沟发育中期,以沟槽下切和沟壁扩张为主;浅沟发育后期,以沟壁扩张为主,但沟壁扩张速率明显小于浅沟发育的初期和中期阶段。浅沟发育初期和中期阶段,浅沟侵蚀量占总坡面侵蚀产沙的58%;浅沟发育后期,浅沟侵蚀量占总坡面侵蚀产沙的26%~59%。  相似文献   

LISEM: A SINGLE-EVENT,PHYSICALLY BASED HYDROLOGICAL AND SOIL EROSION MODEL FOR DRAINAGE BASINS. II: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS,VALIDATION AND APPLICATION     

A. P. J. DE ROO  R. J. E. OFFERMANS  N. H. D. T. CREMERS 《水文研究》1996,10(8):1119-1126

A new hydrological and soil erosion model has been developed and tested: LISEM, the Limburg soil erosion model. The model uses physically based equations to describe interception, infiltration and soil water transport, storage in surface depressions, splash and flow detachment, transport capacity and overland and channel flow. From the validation results it is clear that, although the model has several advantages over other models, the results of LISEM 1.0 are far from perfect. Based on the sensitivity analysis and field observations, the main reasons for these differences seems to be the spatial and temporal variability of the soil hydraulic conductivity and the initial pressure head at the basin scale. Another reason for the differences between measured and simulated results is our lack or understanding of the theory of hydrological and soil erosion processes.  相似文献   

CNOP-P-based parameter sensitivity for double-gyre variation in ROMS with simulated annealing algorithm     

YUAN Shijin  ZHANG Huazhen  LI Mi  MU Bin 《海洋湖沼学报（英文）》2019,(3):957-967

Reducing the error of sensitive parameters by studying the parameters sensitivity can reduce the uncertainty of the model,while simulating double-gyre variation in Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS).Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation related to Parameter(CNOP-P)is an effective method of studying the parameters sensitivity,which represents a type of parameter error with maximum nonlinear development at the prediction time.Intelligent algorithms have been widely applied to solving Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation(CNOP).In the paper,we proposed an improved simulated annealing(SA)algorithm to solve CNOP-P to get the optimal parameters error,studied the sensitivity of the single parameter and the combination of multiple parameters and verified the effect of reducing the error of sensitive parameters on reducing the uncertainty of model simulation.Specifically,we firstly found the non-period oscillation of kinetic energy time series of double gyre variation,then extracted two transition periods,which are respectively from high energy to low energy and from low energy to high energy.For every transition period,three parameters,respectively wind amplitude(WD),viscosity coefficient(VC)and linear bottom drag coefficient(RDRG),were studied by CNOP-P solved with SA algorithm.Finally,for sensitive parameters,their effect on model simulation is verified.Experiments results showed that the sensitivity order is WD>VC>>RDRG,the effect of the combination of multiple sensitive parameters is greater than that of single parameter superposition and the reduction of error of sensitive parameters can effectively reduce model prediction error which confirmed the importance of sensitive parameters analysis.  相似文献