辽宁地区主要断裂活动性和地震危险性评估     

曹凤娟  贾丽华  李梦莹  王松阳 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2021,51(1):286-295

基于辽宁地区主要活动断裂的几何特征和空间展布，对1980年以来辽宁地区M_L≥2.0地震的累计频次和1900年以来M_s≥5.0地震的年发生率的空间分布及其与活动断裂构造背景关系进行研究，获得了基于地震学的辽宁省内主要断裂和构造区（带）的活动性与地震危险性的初步评估结果。辽宁地区主要断裂活动性较高的有海城河断裂、金州断裂九寨—盖州北段、朝阳—北票断裂等；辽宁地区未来3年发生M_s≥5.0地震危险性较高的断裂依次有海城河断裂、金州断裂、熊岳—庄河断裂、鸭绿江断裂及赤峰—开原断裂与柳河断裂交汇处等。在判定区域地震危险性和城市地震风险时，除了依据前兆异常的空间分布，还应充分考虑区内主要构造（断裂）的活动性与地震危险性。  相似文献   

Mineralogical controls on the bioaccessibility of arsenic in weathered gold mine tailings     

《中国地球化学学报》2006,25(B08):33-33

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Ecological risk assessment for heavy metal contamination of a new consideration Agricultural soils     

《中国地球化学学报》2006,25(B08):123-123

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Assessment of marine pollution in Daya Bay, South China： Nutrients, heavy metals and persistent organic pollutants     

《中国地球化学学报》2006,25(B08):166-166

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Optimization of nonconventional wells under uncertainty using statistical proxies     

Vincent Artus  Louis J. Durlofsky  Jérôme Onwunalu  Khalid Aziz 《Computational Geosciences》2006,10(4):389-404

The determination of the optimal type and placement of a nonconventional well in a heterogeneous reservoir represents a challenging optimization problem. This determination is significantly more complicated if uncertainty in the reservoir geology is included in the optimization. In this study, a genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the deployment of nonconventional wells. Geological uncertainty is accounted for by optimizing over multiple reservoir models (realizations) subject to a prescribed risk attitude. To reduce the excessive computational requirements of the base method, a new statistical proxy (which provides fast estimates of the objective function) based on cluster analysis is introduced into the optimization process. This proxy provides an estimate of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the scenario performance, which enables the quantification of proxy uncertainty. Knowledge of the proxy-based performance estimate in conjunction with the proxy CDF enables the systematic selection of the most appropriate scenarios for full simulation. Application of the overall method for the optimization of monobore and dual-lateral well placement demonstrates the performance of the hybrid optimization procedure. Specifically, it is shown that by simulating only 10% or 20% of the scenarios (as determined by application of the proxy), optimization results very close to those achieved by simulating all cases are obtained.  相似文献   

城市化过程中土地征用风险表征及对策     

骆东奇  罗光莲 《地域研究与开发》2006,25(4):103-106,116

从土地征用基本概念和基本特征着手，描述了土地征用的主要风险，其表现为土地征用权力滥用、侵害失地农民的权益、诱发集体土地黑市、诱发社会矛盾等方面。分析了产生风险的“公共利益需要”缺乏明确界定、土地征用的补偿标准偏低或滞后、土地征用及相关制度不健全或存在缺陷等主要原因。提出了控制与规避风险的对策与措施：严格限定公益性用地范围，提高征地补偿标准，扩大补偿范围，完善相关制度，严格土地征用程序。  相似文献   

Quantification of the risk associated with high levels of mercury pollution at Temirtau, Kazakhstan     

Huiwen HSIAO Susanne M. Ullrich Trevor W. Tanton 《中国地球化学学报》2006,25(B08):233-233

This research aims to establish the risks of hurnan exposure to modeling approach. The study site was located on the River Nura 1990s, an acetaldehyde production plant located in the industrial high environmental mercury levels, based on a quantitative risk in central Kazakhstan. From the 1950s until its closure in the mid city of Temirtau released mercury-containing wastewater into the river. River sediments are highly contaminated with mercury up to a distance of 25 km and beyond. In addition, a local power station released an estimated 6 million tonnes of fly-ash into the water and the mercury has become quite tightly associated with the ash deposits. River water, fish and agricultural land in the floodplain are also contaminated with mercury, yet the risks posed to the local population have not been evaluated to date. In June and July 2005, we took samples of soil, interior and exterior dust, drinking water, and food from individual households, communal areas and markets. Additionally, water and sediment samples and fish were taken from the river. Interviews were conducted with householders to establish their age and body weight, general living conditions and sources of irrigation and drinking water. A food frequency questionnaire （FFQ） was designed to investigate the frequencies of consumption of several common regional food items, including fish from the fiver and/or local market. Human hair samples were also collected to estimate the mercury bioburden and to enable the validity of the modeling approach to be established. The paper expands on the main pathways of contamination and looks at linkages between exposure pathways and mercury concentrations found in human hair. Uncertainties inherent in risk analysis as well as their influence on the relative importance of different exposure routes are also discussed.  相似文献   

Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98     

Jochen Schwarz  Mathias Raschke  Holger Maiwald 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):259-282

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.  相似文献   

Site Effects Study in the Serravalle Village (NE Italy) by Means of Spectral Ratios Analyses Relatively to Multiple Reference Sites     

Andrea Restivo  Carla Barnaba  Alberto Michelini 《Natural Hazards》2006,39(1):31-49

The area of Serravalle, sited in the northern part of the town of Vittorio Veneto (TV), NE Italy, has been the target of a seismic microzonation campaign. 10 seismic stations have been deployed for a 7 months period to record in continuous mode. Three stations were installed on bedrock outcrops and seven on sedimentary sites with variable cover thickness. Spectral analyses have been performed on the collected data-set using the Generalized Inversion Technique (GIT, e.g. Andrews, 1986). In particular, spectral ratios have been calculated for each station relatively to the average of the three reference, bedrock sites. The spectral ratios provide quantitative estimates of the seismic motion amplifications which occur in each of the monitored sites. Two sites show high values of amplification, 5 times larger than signal amplitude at the reference sites, in correspondence of well discernible peak frequencies of 5 Hz. Results for the other stations show smaller amounts of site amplification spreading over a broad range of frequencies. Sites where the highest amplifications were recorded all lie on the left bank of the Meschio River and in areas farther away from its outlet into the plain correlating with the presence of thick layers of Quaternary deposits.  相似文献   

金沙江干热河谷区土壤侵蚀危险度评价——以云南元谋为例     

周红艺  熊东红杨忠 《山地学报》2006,24(B10):52-56

利用空间主成分分析方法，选取降水、坡度、植被、土地利用、土壤类型、人口、高程等作为评价指标，建立空间主成分评价模型Pi=0．78X1＋0．06X2＋0．05X3＋0．04X4，将研究区分为无险型、轻险型、危险型、强险型和极险型五种类型，较为准确地得到了危险度综合评价结果。因此，空间主成分分析模型，在土壤侵蚀危险程度评价方面的应用较为成功，是一种科学有效的研究方法。  相似文献