青藏高原近40年来的降水变化特征   总被引：28，自引：7，他引：21  

张磊  缪启龙 《干旱区地理》2007,30(2):240-246

利用我国青藏高原地区的1961-2000年56个气象站的逐月降水资料,通过计算降水量的距平百分率,分析了青藏高原自1961至2000年以来降水量变化的趋势和1961-2000年以来各季降水量变化趋势,发现:青藏高原近40年来降水量呈增加趋势,降水量的线性增长率约为1.12mm/a。再将高原划分为四个季节,分析了各季40年来的降水量的变化情况得出:春季降水量年际变化较大,秋季降水量变化不明显。夏季降水量值较大而降水变化幅度较小,冬季降水量变化则与夏季相反。通过将青藏高原分为南北两个地区,分析了两个区的年降水量和四个季节的降水量的变化得出:高原南区1961-2000年降水量呈增加的趋势,降水量的线增长率为1.97 mm/a,春季和冬季降水量年际变化较大,夏季降水量变化不明显,秋季降水量略有增加;北区年降水量和夏季的降水量变化较小,秋季降水量的年际变化较大,冬季降水量变化最大。对青藏高原的南北两区用Mann-Kendall方法进行突变分析,显示高原南区分别在1978年和1994年发生突变,北区没有发现突变。  相似文献   

研究气温变化趋势的新方法——三组耐抗线     

刘俊卿  杨军  强德厚 《干旱气象》2007,25(1):79-82

针对气象资料难以满足高斯分布的情况,引进了具有耐抗性的三组耐抗线方法,分析了满足不同信度情况下最小二乘回归和三组耐抗线的差异,并用西藏近30 a气温资料进行了检验。结果表明三组耐抗线方法比最小二乘法研究气候变化趋势有明显优势;采用最小二乘法得到的西藏气候变暖估计偏高。  相似文献   

金沙本底站空气质量与颗粒物浓度变化特征分析     

吴栋桥  周登 《气象科学进展》2021,(1):58-60

利用华中区域代表性站点金沙国家大气本底站2007—2018年的PM2.5、PM10颗粒物质量浓度数据,2019年3月—2019年6月反应性气体数据,对华中区域空气质量进行整体评价,并分析了颗粒物浓度的变化特征及其影响因素.结果表明,反应性气体CO、SO2、NO、NO2质量浓度其日平均最大值、平均值均达到一级标准,O3日...  相似文献   

近百年来湖泊有机碳与无机碳埋藏响应流域开发的协同变化——以石林喀斯特地区为例     

王露  陈光杰  黄林培  孔令阳  李蕊  韩桥花  李平  索旗  周起 《湖泊科学》2022,34(5):1751-1764

有机碳和无机碳的流域输出是湖泊碳埋藏的重要驱动因子,而喀斯特地区无机碳循环具有反应迅速且对人类活动影响敏感的特点.在流域开发持续增强的背景下,喀斯特地区湖泊有机碳和无机碳的来源、含量与埋藏通量可能会出现同步变化的协同模式.本文以云南省石林喀斯特地区流域土地利用类型不同的两个中型湖泊(长湖、月湖)开展对比分析,通过对沉积物钻孔的土壤侵蚀强度(磁化率)、流域外源输入(C:N比值)、水动力(粒度)、营养盐(总氮、总磷)、藻类生产力(叶绿素色素)等代用指标的分析,结合监测数据和历史资料重建了两个湖泊环境变化的近百年历史,并定量识别了有机碳和无机碳埋藏响应流域开发的变化特征与协同模式.沉积物磁化率和C:N比值结果揭示了流域地表侵蚀和外源输入的阶段性特征,同时总氮和总磷含量记录了长湖和月湖营养水平上升的长期模式.在流域森林覆被较高(33.43%)的长湖中,全岩和有机质C:N比值分别与磁化率信号呈显著正相关(r=0.95和0.89,P<0.001),且与无机碳和有机碳含量呈显著负相关(r=-0.94,P<0.001和r=-0.52,P=0.01),反映了森林植被退化时流域碳输出的减少对沉...  相似文献   

Spatial variation and driving mechanism of soil organic carbon components in the alluvial/sedimentary zone of the Yellow River     

LI Guodong  ZHANG Junhua  ZHU Lianqi  TIAN Huiwen  SHI Jiaqi  REN Xiaojuan 《地理学报(英文版)》2021,31(4):535-550

Alluviation and sedimentation of the Yellow River are important factors influencing the surface soil structure and organic carbon content in its lower reaches. Selecting Kaifeng and Zhoukou as typical cases of the Yellow River flooding area, the field survey, soil sample collection, laboratory experiment and Geographic Information System(GIS) spatial analysis methods were applied to study the spatial distribution characteristics and change mechanism of organic carbon components at different soil depths. The results revealed that the soil total organic carbon(TOC), active organic carbon(AOC) and nonactive organic carbon(NOC) contents ranged from 0.05–30.03 g/kg, 0.01–8.86 g/kg and 0.02–23.36 g/kg, respectively. The TOC, AOC and NOC contents in the surface soil layer were obviously higher than those in the lower soil layer, and the sequence of the content and change range within a single layer was TOCNOCAOC. Geostatistical analysis indicated that the TOC, AOC and NOC contents were commonly influenced by structural and random factors, and the influence magnitudes of these two factors were similar. The overall spatial trends of TOC, AOC and NOC remained relatively consistent from the 0–20 cm layer to the 20–100 cm layer, and the transition between high-and low-value areas was obvious, while the spatial variance was high. The AOC and NOC contents and spatial distribution better reflected TOC spatial variation and carbon accumulation areas. The distribution and depth of the sediment, agricultural land-use type, cropping system, fertilization method, tillage process and cultivation history were the main factors impacting the spatial variation in the soil organic carbon(SOC) components. Therefore, increasing the organic matter content, straw return, applying organic manure, adding exogenous particulate matter and conservation tillage are effective measures to improve the soil quality and attain sustainable agricultural development in the alluvial/sedimentary zone of the Yellow River.  相似文献   

Consolidation in spatially random unsaturated soils based on coupled flow‐deformation simulation          下载免费PDF全文

Y. Cheng  L.L. Zhang  J.H. Li  L.M. Zhang  J.H. Wang  D.Y. Wang 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2017,41(5):682-706

This paper integrates random field simulation of soil spatial variability with numerical modeling of coupled flow and deformation to investigate consolidation in spatially random unsaturated soil. The spatial variability of soil properties is simulated using the covariance matrix decomposition method. The random soil properties are imported into an interactive multiphysics software COMSOL to solve the governing partial differential equations. The effects of the spatial variability of Young's modulus and saturated permeability together with unsaturated hydraulic parameters on the dissipation of excess pore water pressure and settlement are investigated using an example of consolidation in a saturated‐unsaturated soil column because of loading. It is found that the surface settlement and the pore water pressure profile during the process of consolidation are significantly affected by the spatially varying Young's modulus. The mean value of the settlement of the spatially random soil is more than 100% greater than that of the deterministic case, and the surface settlement is subject to large uncertainty, which implies that consolidation settlement is difficult to predict accurately based on the conventional deterministic approach. The uncertainty of the settlement increases with the scale of fluctuation because of the averaging effect of spatial variability. The effects of spatial variability of saturated permeability k_sat and air entry parameters are much less significant than that of elastic modulus. The spatial variability of air entry value parameters affects the uncertainties of settlement and excess pore pressure mostly in the unsaturated zone. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Inferring soil water movement and streamflow response in Canadian Prairie riparian areas using hydrologic state variables          下载免费PDF全文

Cody A. Ross  Genevieve Ali  David Lobb 《水文研究》2017,31(22):3765-3782

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A study of variability of annual river flow of the southern African region     

BERHANU FANTA  B. T. ZAAKE  R. K. KACHROO 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):513-524

Abstract

Variability of river flow is investigated in 502 river flow gauging stations in nine countries of the southern African region with a view to document the spatial variability of the river flow regimes. Those regions where there is strong evidence of declining or increasing trend in annual runoff have been identified. The study has shown that runoff in the region ranges from over 320 mm year^?1 in the Lower Zambezi and the highlands of Tanzania to less than 10 mm year^?1 in the deserts of Namibia and the Kalahari. There is also evidence of declining runoff in parts of Zambia, Angola, Mozambique and the High Veld in South Africa. The recent decline seems to have started from around 1975.  相似文献   

Can Eddy Forcing be Responsible for the Spatial Structure of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode?     

ZHAO Nan  LI Yan  SHEN Xinyong 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2010,24(5):584-592

In order to study the origin of the spatial structure of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM),a linear stochastic model is constructed empirically from the output of a GCM run.Optimal stochastic forcing in terms of the maximum variance contribution,which may be potentially related to the maintenance of the NAM,is investigated.Theoretical analysis on the dominant non-modal response to the stochastic forcing shows that this dominance is jointly decided by the properties of forcing and the non-modal grow...  相似文献   

Appropriate Spatial Sampling of Rainfall or Flow Simulation/Echantillonnage Spatial de la Pluie Approprié pour la Simulation D'écoulements     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2)

Abstract

The objective of this study is to find the appropriate number and location of raingauges for a river basin for flow simulation by using statistical analyses and hydrological modelling. First, a statistical method is used to identify the appropriate number of raingauges. Herein the effect of the number of raingauges on the cross-correlation coefficient between areally averaged rainfall and discharge is investigated. Second, a lumped HBV model is used to investigate the effect of the number of raingauges on hydrological modelling performance. The Qingjiang River basin with 26 raingauges in China is used for a case study. The results show that both cross-correlation coefficient and modelling performance increase hyperbolically, and level off after five raingauges (therefore identified to be the appropriate number of rain-gauges) for this basin. The geographical locations of raingauges which give the best and worst hydrological modelling performance are identified, which shows that there is a strong dependence on the local geographical and climatic patterns.  相似文献