时空投影法在上海地区梅汛期降水延伸期预报中的应用     

马悦  梁萍  李文铠  何金海 《气象》2018,44(12):1593-1603

本文基于2001—2010年上海市11个基本气象站的逐日降水量和澳大利亚气象局的逐日大气低频振荡(MaddenJulian Oscillation,MJO)指数(包括RMM1和RMM2)资料,选取MJO指数作为预报因子,上海地区梅汛期降水量作为预报对象,建立了基于时空投影法(spatial-temporal projection model,STPM)的上海地区梅汛期降水延伸期预报模型。利用该模型对近6年(2011—2016年)的梅汛期降水进行回报试验,其预报技巧评估结果表明:该模型对未来10～25 d的降水具有较好预报效果,可较准确地预报出梅汛期3/4左右的降水量级和降水发生时段。其中,预报时效为10～20 d的预报技巧较高,而提前21～25 d的预报技巧略有下降。总体而言,基于MJO活动的STPM预报模型在上海地区梅汛期延伸期降水预报中具有较好的参考价值。  相似文献   

Responses of landscape pattern of China’s two largest freshwater lakes to early dry season after the impoundment of Three-Gorges Dam     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2017

The effects of hydrologic cycle change (caused by human activity and global climate change) on ecosystems attract the increasing attention around the world. As a result of impounding of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD), climate change and sand mining, the dry season of Poyang Lake and Dongting Lake (China’s two largest freshwater lakes) came early after the TGD impoundment. It was the primary cause of the increasing need for sluice/dam construction to store water in the Lakes and attracted increasing attention. In this paper, we compared the landscape pattern between three hydrologic years with early dry season (EY) and three normal hydrologic years (NY) of each lake by remote sensing technology, to reveal the effect of early dry season on landscape pattern. The results showed that early dry season caused expanding of Phalaris to mudflat zone in Poyang Lake, while caused expanding of Carex to Phalaris zone and expanding of Phalaris to mudflat zone in Dongting Lake. In landscape level, there was no significant difference in landscape grain size, landscape grain shape, habitat connectivity and landscape diversity between EY and NY in the two lakes. While in habitat class level, there were significant changes in area of mudflat and Phalaris and grain size of mudflat in Poyang Lake, and in area of Carex, grain size of Phalaris and grain shape of Carex and Phalaris in Dongting Lake. These changes will impact migrating birds of East Asian and migratory fishes of Yangtze River.  相似文献   

ON THE PROCESS OF SUMMER MONSOON ONSET OVER EAST ASIA   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

陈隆勋  李薇  赵平  陶诗言 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2001,(4)

Using daily observational rainfall data covered 194 stations of China from 1961 to 1995 andNCEP model analyzed pentad precipitation data of global grid point from 1979 to 1997,thedistribution of onset date of rainy season over Asian area from spring to summer is studied in thispaper.The analyzed results show that there exist two stages of rainy season onset over East Asianregion from spring to summer rainy season onset accompanying subtropical monsoon and tropicalmonsoon respectively.The former rain belt is mainly formed by the convergence of cold air and therecurred southwesterly flow from western part of subtropical high and westerly flow from the so-called western trough of subtropical region occurring during winter to spring over South Asia.Thelatter is formed in the process of subtropical monsoon rain belt over inshore regions of South ChinaSea originally coming from south of Changjiang (Yangtze) River Basin advancing with northwardshift of subtropical high after the onset of tropical monsoon over South China Sea.The pre-floodrainy season over South China region then came into mature period and the second peak of rainfallappeared.Meiyu,the rainy season over Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin and North China thenformed consequently.The process of summer tropical monsoon onset over South China Sea in 1998is also discussed in this paper.It indicated that the monsoon during summer tropical monsoononset over South China Sea is the result of the westerly flow over middle part of South China Sea,which is from the new generated cyclone formed in north subtropical high entering into SouthChina Sea,converged with the tropical southwesterly flow recurred by the intensified cross-equatorial flow.  相似文献   

康熙帝对农业气象的贡献     

王鹏飞 《大气科学学报》1997,20(4):541-544

清帝玄烨(即康熙帝)重视农业气象。亲自在北京培育出高产早熟品种的水稻——御稻米。而且还在生长季较长的江浙以双季稻方式推广成功,大大增加了当时的稻产量。  相似文献   

Do predatory fish of benthic crustaceans vary between kelp and barren reef habitats in northeastern New Zealand?     

J Hesse  JA Stanley  AG Jeffs 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2016,50(3):339-357

Fish assemblages that included known predators of benthic crustaceans were compared between kelp and barren habitats in northeastern New Zealand using baited underwater video census methods. The benthic-feeding fish were observed in winter, spring/summer and autumn, as well as during night-time in spring/summer. Overall, the fish assemblages varied between barren and kelp habitat, being most marked in winter. Individual benthic-feeding species, such as grey mao mao (Scorpis lineolatus) and leatherjacket (Meuschenia scaber) were associated with barren habitat, while the spotted wrasse (Notolabrus celidotus) was more strongly associated with kelp habitat. The results suggest that changes in habitats on coastal reefs affect populations of species that are benthic predators, which may in turn influence the distribution and abundance of their prey species, such as juvenile spiny lobsters.  相似文献   

Comparative study of haematological, serum electrolyte and nonelectrolyte parameters of male and female Persian sturgeon (Acipenser persicus) brood stocks     

ADEL Mil  PALANISAMY Satheesh Kumar  SHAFIEI Shafigh  FAZLI Hasan  ZORRIEHZAHRA Mohammad Jalil 《海洋学报(英文版)》2016,35(8):39-43

Sturgeons are the most important principal market species in the Caspian Sea. In the present study, measurement of blood parameters was carried out with the aim of evaluating the normal value of hematological and serum biochemical parameters of brood stocks Acipenser persicus during spawning season. Blood samples were collected from 36 brood stocks of A. persicus (18 males and 18 females) during the spawning season. Higher value of red blood cells, white blood cells, haemoglobin, haematocrit was observed in male breeders with significant differences between female breeders (p>0.05). Haemoglobin and haematocrit value in this study was within the range of 8.70 to 9.2 g/dL and 29.73% to 30.26%, respectively. The statistically significant differences between mean corpuscular volumes, mean corpuscular haemoglobin, lymphocyte and neutrophil percentages, aspartate aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase and creatine kinase were observed in the male and female brood stocks. It is concluded from this study, some of the hematological and serum biochemical parameters of male and female A. persicus breeders were significantly varied from each other. In comparative investigation with earlier reports, the values of red blood cells, haemoglobin and haematocrit are highly varied due to age variations of fish. However, further studies are necessary to understand the impact of sexual, age, size, length, and season and habitat variation. Serum biochemical parameters can be used for confirming the maturity of A. persicus and monitoring any changes in the water quality parameters and soil.  相似文献   

Temperature dependence of variations in the end of the growing season from 1982 to 2012 on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau     

Mingjun Ding  Qian Chen  Lanhui Li  Zhaofeng Wang  Linshan Liu 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2016,53(2):147-163

A growing number of studies have focused on variations in vegetation phenology and their correlations with climatic factors. However, there has been little research on changes in spatial heterogeneity with respect to the end of the growing season (EGS) and on responses to climate change for alpine vegetation on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP). In this study, the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the meteorological record from 1982 to 2012 were used to characterize the spatial pattern of variations in the EGS and their relationship to temperature and precipitation on the QTP. Over the entire study period, the EGS displayed no statistically significant trend; however, there was a strong spatial heterogeneity throughout the plateau. Those areas showing a delaying trend in the EGS were mainly distributed in the eastern part of the plateau, whereas those showing an advancing trend were mostly scattered throughout the western part. Our results also showed that change in the vegetation EGS was more closely correlated with air temperature than with precipitation. Nonetheless, the temperature sensitivity of the vegetation EGS became lower as aridity increased, suggesting that precipitation is an important regulator of the response of the vegetation EGS to climate warming. These results indicate spatial differences in key environmental influences on the vegetation EGS that must be taken into account in current phenological models, which are largely driven by temperature.  相似文献   

Chokka squid (Loligo vulgaris reynaudii) abundance linked to changes in South Africa's Agulhas Bank ecosystem during spawning and the early life cycle     

Roberts  Michael J. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2005,62(1):33-55

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Effects of the 1995 and 1998 mass mortality events on the spawning biomass of sardine, Sardinops sagax, in South Australian waters     

Ward  T. M.; Hoedt  F.; McLeay  L.; Dimmlich  W. F.; Kinloch  M.; Jackson  G.; McGarvey  R.; Rogers  P. J.; Jones  K. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2001,58(4):865-875

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The Reproduction of the Anemone Sagartia troglodytes (PRICE): No Influence of Tidal Manipulation     

Herman  Hummel Roelof H.  Bogaards 《Marine Ecology》1991,12(1):35-40

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