Testing a model for predicting the timing and location of shallow landslide initiation in soil‐mantled landscapes     

M. Casadei  W. E. Dietrich  N. L. Miller 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2003,28(9):925-950

The growing availability of digital topographic data and the increased reliability of precipitation forecasts invite modelling efforts to predict the timing and location of shallow landslides in hilly and mountainous areas in order to reduce risk to an ever‐expanding human population. Here, we exploit a rare data set to develop and test such a model. In a 1·7 km² catchment a near‐annual aerial photographic coverage records just three single storm events over a 45 year period that produced multiple landslides. Such data enable us to test model performance by running the entire rainfall time series and determine whether just those three storms are correctly detected. To do this, we link a dynamic and spatially distributed shallow subsurface runoff model (similar to TOPMODEL) to an in?nite slope model to predict the spatial distribution of shallow landsliding. The spatial distribution of soil depth, a strong control on local landsliding, is predicted from a process‐based model. Because of its common availability, daily rainfall data were used to drive the model. Topographic data were derived from digitized 1 : 24 000 US Geological Survey contour maps. Analysis of the landslides shows that 97 occurred in 1955, 37 in 1982 and ?ve in 1998, although the heaviest rainfall was in 1982. Furthermore, intensity–duration analysis of available daily and hourly rainfall from the closest raingauges does not discriminate those three storms from others that did not generate failures. We explore the question of whether a mechanistic modelling approach is better able to identify landslide‐producing storms. Landslide and soil production parameters were ?xed from studies elsewhere. Four hydrologic parameters characterizing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil and underlying bedrock and its decline with depth were ?rst calibrated on the 1955 landslide record. Success was characterized as the most number of actual landslides predicted with the least amount of total area predicted to be unstable. Because landslide area was consistently overpredicted, a threshold catchment area of predicted slope instability was used to de?ne whether a rainstorm was a signi?cant landslide producer. Many combinations of the four hydrological parameters performed equally well for the 1955 event, but only one combination successfully identi?ed the 1982 storm as the only landslide‐producing storm during the period 1980–86. Application of this parameter combination to the entire 45 year record successfully identi?ed the three events, but also predicted that two other landslide‐producing events should have occurred. This performance is signi?cantly better than the empirical intensity–duration threshold approach, but requires considerable calibration effort. Overprediction of instability, both for storms that produced landslides and for non‐producing storms, appears to arise from at least four causes: (1) coarse rainfall data time scale and inability to document short rainfall bursts and predict pressure wave response; (2) absence of local rainfall data; (3) legacy effect of previous landslides; and (4) inaccurate topographic and soil property data. Greater resolution of spatial and rainfall data, as well as topographic data, coupled with systematic documentation of landslides to create time series to test models, should lead to signi?cant improvements in shallow landslides forecasting. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Mechanisms of riverbank failure along the Arno River,central Italy     

Stefano Dapporto  Massimo Rinaldi  Nicola Casagli  Pietro Vannocci 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2003,28(12):1303-1323

Riverbanks along the Arno River have been investigated with the aims of de?ning the main mechanisms of failure and retreat, their spatial distribution, and their causes. Geomorphological aspects were investigated by a reconnaissance of riverbank processes, for a number (26) of representative sites. Laboratory and in situ tests were then performed on a selected number of riverbanks (15). Based on the material characteristics, six main typologies of riverbanks have been de?ned, with homogeneous ?ne‐grained and composite banks representing the most frequent types. Slab‐type failures are the most frequent mechanism observed on ?ne‐grained banks, while cantilever failures prevail on composite banks. The role of river stage and related pore water pressure distributions in triggering the main observed mechanisms of failure has been investigated using two different types of stability analysis. The ?rst was conducted for 15 riverbanks, using the limit equilibrium method and considering simpli?ed hypotheses for pore water pressure distribution (annulment of negative pore pressures in the portion of the bank between low water stage and peak stage). Stability conditions and predicted mechanisms of failure are shown to be in reasonably good agreement with ?eld observations. Three riverbanks, representative of the main alluvial reaches of the river, were then selected for a more detailed bank stability analysis, consisting of: (a) de?nition of characteristic hydrographs of the reach with different return periods; (b) modelling of saturated and unsaturated ?ow using ?nite element seepage analysis; and (c) stability analysis with the limit equilibrium method, by adopting pore water pressure values derived from the seepage analysis. The results are compared to those obtained from the previous simpli?ed analysis, and are used to investigate the different responses, in terms of stability, to different hydrological and riverbank conditions. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

京沈高速公路迁-滦连线龙山滑坡成因机理分析及治理   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

杨志双  柴建峰  王景明  刘科 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2003,33(1):63-66,105

对龙山滑坡层状滑体的破坏模式进行了分析，采用Sarma法和直线滑面型边坡分析法对各个滑块进行了稳定性分析计算，结果准确。根据不同的工程地质条件，采用不同的工程措施进行治理，效果良好。  相似文献   

钻井设备老化过程及规律的探讨     

马能霞 《地下水》2003,25(1):55-56

本文通过对钻机老化过程及规律的探讨，找出了一种方便而有效衡量钻机老化程度的数量指标，用以定量地度量钻机老化程度，为钻机发挥最佳经济效益起到一定的作用。  相似文献   

高分辨率卫星影像中阴影的自动提取与处理   总被引：27，自引：0，他引：27  

许妙忠  余志惠 《测绘信息与工程》2003,28(1):20-22

高分辨率卫星遥感影像开创了许多新的应用领域，但影像中的阴影是一个必须解决的问题。一方面，它给象影像分类这样的一些应用带来了很大麻烦，另一方面，它提供了物体的高度信息。本文利用纹理分析的方法，通过共生矩阵和相应指数的计算，对高分辨率卫影像中阴影的自动提取与处理作了一个尝试并给出了一些结果。  相似文献   

基于信息块法的矢量符号库的建立和符号化实现   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3  

吴丽春  胡鹏 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2003,28(5):600-603

基于试验成果，详细介绍了基于信息块法的矢量地图符号库的建立和空间信息的符号化。  相似文献   

基于新型机载多角度传感器AMTIS的LAI反演     

周宇宇  唐世浩  朱启疆  阎广建 《国土资源遥感》2003,14(4):9-12,21

以实地测量数据为先验知识,利用AMTIS数据对顺义地区的一块小麦地进行了叶面积指数(LAI)反演实验研究,并用实地LAI数据进行了验证。通过利用实测数据作为模型参数,以及对干湿土壤分类和匹配表的调整,使反演结果和反演速度得到了提高。  相似文献   

应用RMi法估算岩体变形模量     

王亮清  胡静  章广成 《水文地质工程地质》2003,(Z1)

RMR法与Q法是国内外八、九十年代岩体质量和参数估算的常用方法,然而RMR法和Q法对质量较差的岩体不太实用,而RMi法是一种既适用于软岩又适用于硬岩的岩体质量评价和参数估算方法。本文在介绍RMi法基本原理的基础上,对贵州省鱼简河水库坝基岩体变形模量进行确定。  相似文献   

Risk analysis of landslides – A case study     

G. L. Sivakumar Babu  M. D. Mukesh 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2003,21(2):113-127

The effects of uncertainty due to the variability of soil parameters on the risk of landsliding in the Himalayan region are investigated using a random field model combined with slope stability analyses. Effects of spatial variability both in horizontal and vertical directions, number of test samples, variations in piezometric level and the influence of earthquake on the reliability of a typical slope in a slide area are investigated. The results show that the reliability of slopes in the slide area is significantly affected by the coefficients of variation of soil parameters, spatial variations of soil parameters, number of test samples and piezometric variations. The results also show that the assumption of isotropic variations to assess slope reliability isconservative. The results of the study are useful in providing guidelines and pointing to remedial measures in the form of sub-surface drainage to improve slope reliability in the area.  相似文献   

On the origin of late Quaternary palaeolandslides in the Liège (E Belgium) area     

Demoulin  A.  Pissart  A.  Schroeder  C. 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2003,92(5):795-805

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