The ecological fallacy in a time series context: evidence from Spanish regional unemployment rates     

Juan Carlos Duque  Manuel Artís  Raúl Ramos 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2006,8(4):391-410

The ecological fallacy (EF) is a common problem regional scientists have to deal with when using aggregated data in their analyses. Although there is a wide number of studies considering different aspects of this problem, little attention has been paid to the potential negative effects of the EF in a time series context. Using Spanish regional unemployment data, this paper shows that EF effects are not only observed at the cross-section level, but also in a time series framework. The empirical evidence obtained shows that analytical regional configurations are the least susceptible to time effects relative to both normative and random regional configurations, while normative configurations are an improvement over random ones.

Raúl RamosEmail:

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Roles of Melting and Metasomatism in the Formation of the Lithospheric Mantle beneath the Leizhou Peninsula, South China   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

YU  JIN-HAI; O'REILLY  SUZANNE Y.; ZHANG  MING; GRIFFIN  W. L.; XU  XISHENG 《Journal of Petrology》2006,47(2):355-383

This study characterizes the nature of fluid interaction andmelting processes in the lithospheric mantle beneath the Yingfenglingand Tianyang volcanoes, Leizhou Peninsula, South China, usingin situ trace-element analyses of clinopyroxene, amphibole andgarnet from a suite of mantle-derived xenoliths. Clinopyroxenesfrom discrete spinel lherzolites exhibit large compositionalvariations ranging from extremely light rare earth element (LREE)-depletedto LREE-enriched. Trace-element modelling for depleted samplesindicates that the Leizhou lherzolites are the residues of amantle peridotite source after extraction of 1–11% meltgenerated by incremental melting in the spinel lherzolite fieldwith the degree of melting increasing upwards from about 60km to 30 km. This process is consistent with gradational meltingat different depths in an upwelling asthenospheric column thatsubsequently cooled to form the current lithospheric mantlein this region. The calculated melt production rate of thiscolumn could generate mafic crust 5–6 km thick, whichwould account for most of the present-day lower crust. The formationof the lithospheric column is inferred to be related to Mesozoiclithosphere thinning. Al-augite pyroxenites occur in compositexenoliths; these are geochemically similar to HIMU-type oceanisland basalt. These pyroxenites postdate the lithospheric columnformation and belong to two episodes of magmatism. Early magmatism(forming metapyroxenites) is inferred to have occurred duringthe opening of the South China Sea Basin (32–15 Ma), whereasthe most recent magmatic episode (producing pyroxenites withigneous microstructures) occurred shortly before the eruptionof the host magmas (6–0·3 Ma). Trace-element traversesfrom the contacts of the Al-augite pyroxenite with the spinelperidotite wall-rock in composite xenoliths record gradientsin the strength and nature of metasomatic effects away fromthe contact, showing that equilibrium was not attained. Significantenrichment in highly incompatible elements close to the contacts,with only slight enrichment in Sr, LREE and Nb away from thecontact, is inferred to reflect the different diffusion ratesof specific trace elements. The observed geochemical gradientsin metasomatic zones show that Sr, La, Ce and Nb have the highestdiffusion rates, other REE are intermediate, and Zr, Hf andTi have the lowest diffusion rates. Lower diffusion rates observedfor Nb, Zr, Hf and Ti compared with REE may cause high fieldstrength element (HFSE) negative anomalies in metasomatizedperidotites. Therefore, metasomatized lherzolites with HFSEnegative anomalies do not necessarily require a carbonatiticmetasomatizing agent. KEY WORDS: China; lithosphere; mantle xenoliths; clinopyroxene trace elements; mantle partial melting; mantle metasomatism; trace-element diffusion rates  相似文献   

Unexpected fast rate of morphological evolution of geologically-active continental margins during Quaternary: Examples from selected areas in the Italian seas     

《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2017

In the last few decades, seafloor imagery systems have drastically changed our vision of a mostly regular and depositional marine landscape, evidencing how erosive and mass-wasting processes are widespread in the marine environments, with particular reference to geologically-active areas. Most of the previous studies have focused on the characterization of these features, whereas a very few ones have tried to estimate what is the extent and order of magnitude of erosion rates in these areas. In this paper, we show several examples from some of the most geologically-active margins off Southern Italy aimed to a) quantify the spatial extent of such processes, b) better understand the role of submarine erosion in the morphogenesis of the coastal sector, and c) try to roughly estimate the order of magnitude of erosion rates in these areas. The results are impressive, with mass-wasting features widespread from coast down to −2600, affecting from the 52% up to 97% of the whole continental slope. Because of the narrow or totally lacking shelves in these areas, mass-wasting processes often occur close to the coast and match embayment of the coast, so indicating a key role in the morphogenesis of coastal sector, with significant implication on the related geohazard. Finally, based on a morphological approach integrated by available stratigraphic constraints we have roughly estimated average erosion rates in these areas, ranging from (at least) some mm/year to a few cm/year, i.e., some hundreds of meters up to kilometers eroded in each eustatic cycle. Despite the large uncertainties of these estimates as well as their spatial and temporal variability in response to regional and local factors, the obtained values are very high and they should be considered for future model of margin evolution, source-to-sink computation and marine/coastal geohazard assessment.  相似文献   

Time series video analysis of bubble release processes at natural hydrocarbon seeps in the Northern Gulf of Mexico     

《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2017

This research quantifies the rate and volume of oil and gas released from two natural seep sites in the Gulf of Mexico: lease blocks GC600 (1200 m depth) and MC118 (850 m depth). Our objectives were to determine variability in release rates and bubble size at five individual vents and to investigate the effects of tidal fluctuations on bubble release. Observations with autonomous video cameras captured the formation of individual bubbles as they were released through partially exposed deposits of gas hydrate. Image processing techniques determined bubble type (oily, gaseous, and mixed: oily and gaseous), size distribution, release rate, and temporal variations (observation intervals ranged from 3 h to 26 d). A semi-automatic bubble counting algorithm was developed to analyze bubble count and release rates from video data. This method is suitable for discrete vents with small bubble streams commonly seen at seeps and is adaptable to multiple in situ set-ups. Two vents at GC600 (Birthday Candles 1 and Birthday Candles 2) were analyzed. They released oily bubbles with an average diameter of 5.0 mm at a rate of 4.7 bubbles s⁻¹, and 1.3 bubbles s⁻¹, respectively. Approximately 1 km away, within the GC600 seep site, two more vents (Mega Plume 1 and Mega Plume 2) were analyzed. These vents released a mixture of oily and gaseous bubbles with an average diameter of 3.9 mm at a rate of 49 bubbles s⁻¹, and 81 bubbles s⁻¹, respectively. The fifth vent at MC118 (Rudyville) released gaseous bubbles with an average diameter of 3.0 mm at a rate of 127 bubbles s⁻¹. Pressure records at Mega Plume and Rudyville showed a diurnal tidal cycle (24.5 h). Rudyville was the only vent that demonstrated any positive correlation (ρ = 0.60) to the 24.5 h diurnal tidal cycle. However, these observations were not conclusive regarding tidal effects on bubble release.  相似文献   

Energy rates due to Fe isotopes during presupernova evolution of massive stars     

《New Astronomy》2024

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Glacial activity and paraglacial landsliding in the Devensian Lateglacial: evidence from Craig Cerrig-gleisiad and Fan Dringarth,Fforest Fawr (Brecon Beacons), South Wales     

Richard A. Shakesby  John A. Matthews 《Geological Journal》1996,31(2):143-157

The tongue-shaped mass of debris and associated ridges on the cirque floor below Craig Cerrig-gleisiad, Brecon Beacons National Park is important and controversial because it has been attributed to more than one glacier advance during the Late Devensian. A new origin is proposed involving landslide development from the collapse of part of the western headwall followed by a single phase of glacier development in the Loch Lomond Stadial (Younger Dryas), which reworked the landslide sediments. Evidence for this landslide, which provides useful criteria for differentiating moraines formed by small glaciers from landslides, lies in tension cracks, backward-tilted blocks and bedrock joints dipping out of the western headwall, together with lateral levées, upstanding termini and angular clasts with only occasional, indistinct striae on the tongue-shaped mass, which is interpreted as a flowslide. Glacier reworking of debris in the upper part of the Cwm Cerrig-gleisiad landslide is indicated by subparallel ridges rising to 20 m above the cirque floor containing abraded clasts (16-32% striated). This interpretation is supported by a comparison with the morphological and sedimentary characteristics of a neighbouring landslide at Fan Dringarth, where no glacier developed in the Loch Lomond Stadial. The existence of paraglacial landsliding has significant palaeoenvironmental implications leading to: (1) erroneously large estimates of equilibrium line depression ($Δ$ELA) in the Loch Lomond Stadial; (2) consequent underestimates of summer palaeotemperatures and/or overestimates of the contribution of wind-drifted snow to glacier accumulation; and (3) larger moraines than usual and overestimation of the efficacy of glacial erosion because of antecedent processes.  相似文献   

The SPICE project: Calibrated cosmogenic 26Al production rates and cross-calibrated 26Al /10Be, 26Al/14C,and 26Al/21Ne ratios in quartz from the SP basalt flow,AZ, USA     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2022

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