A statistical approach to evaluating distance metrics and analog assignments for pollen records     

Daniel G. Gavin  W. Wyatt Oswald  Eugene R. Wahl  John W. Williams 《Quaternary Research》2003,60(3):356-367

The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog.  相似文献   

清江水布垭水利枢纽地下厂房围岩变形特性研究     

朱杰兵  许阳 《岩土力学》2003,(Z1)

通过在水布垭水利枢纽地下厂房中进行变形试验,研究了厂房区岩体的变形特性,采用反分析法进行粘弹性反分析,反演出地应力、弹性模量及粘性参数,并与现场试验结果进行比较,对反算值进行评价。  相似文献   

止水帷幕在高层建筑深基坑中的应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

周红丽 《岩土力学》2003,(Z1)

某高层建筑基坑西侧紧邻一道河沟,水量较大,采取三重管高压摆喷帷幕止水[1～4],施工完成后通过监测,未发现渗漏、地下水位明显下降和周围建筑物沉降现象。  相似文献   

京珠高速公路东西湖段软基处理数值分析     

陈云  汪明元  周小文  蔡汉利 《岩土力学》2003,(Z2)

采用等效地基固结系数法,对京珠高速公路东西湖段软土地基,进行了比奥固结平面有限元分析。计算值与实测值比较接近。计算结果为选择地基处理措施和确定道面施工时间提供了依据,保证了竣工后该路段的工后沉降满足设计要求。  相似文献   

宜兴抽水蓄能电站试验洞的反分析研究   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4  

杨林德  仇圣华  王悦照  丁文其  朱合华 《岩土力学》2003,(Z2)

结合江苏宜兴抽水蓄能电站地下厂房试验洞量测资料的分析,研究了成层各向异性岩体中洞室工程问题的反分析方法。采用分层均质模型进行反分析计算。计算区域的各层岩层均被分别视为均质各向同性体,初始地应力假设呈线性分布。有限元分析中,对倾斜成层的岩层、软弱夹层及断层节理等分别划分了单元,据以模拟成层岩体的各向异性特征。为使计算过程简化,对离洞室较远的岩层拟按地质资料对材料特性参数赋值,反分析计算的目标未知数为初始地应力和试验洞相邻围岩的弹性模量。结果表明,与工程实践符合较好。  相似文献   

基桩缺陷逐步能量恢复递推定量分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

张献民  蔡靖  王建华 《岩土力学》2003,(Z2)

通过大量正演计算,对不同桩周土条件下缺陷程度与时域速度响应波形中入射波波幅与反射波波幅的比值进行了相关性分析,拟合出桩侧土为粘土、砂土、粉土条件下桩径变化程度与波幅比之间的关系式。通过理论分析,在基桩存在多缺陷时,导出了缩颈与扩颈对下一个缺陷引起的反射波幅值的影响系数,进而,提出了逐步能量恢复递推缺陷程度的理论与方法,在时间域中,实现了基桩存在多缺陷时的低应变动测缺陷量化分析。模型桩试验分析结果表明,缺陷量化分析方法可取得显著效果。  相似文献   

真空-堆载联合预压处理软基效果的室内试验研究     

魏波  贺怀建 《岩土力学》2003,(Z2)

对甬-台-温高速公路采用真空-堆载联合预压处理软基前后的土样进行了室内试验分析,得出了合理的试验结论,即土的物理性质指标分别得到不同程度的降低,强度指标得到较大的提高。  相似文献   

Theoretical Study on Stochastic Modeling of Combined Gravity-Magnetic-Electric-Seismic Inversion and Its Application     

YanHanjie YanHong LiYunping ZhangXiaofeng 《中国地质大学学报(英文版)》2003,14(3):227-233

As gravity field,magnetic field,electric field and seismic wave field are all physical fields,their object function,reverse function and compound function are certainly infinite contiuously differentiable func-tions which can be expanded into Taylor (Fourier) series within domain of definition and be further reduced in-to solving stochastic distribution function of series and statistic inference of optimal approximation,This is the basis of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion built on the basis of separation of field and source gravity-magnetic difference-value(D-value)trend surface,taking distribution-independent fault sys-tem as its unit,depths of seismic and electric interfaces of interests as its corresponding bivariate compound re-verse function of gravity-magnetic anomalies and using high order polynomial(high order trigonometric func-tion)approximating to its series distribution,The difference from current dominant inversion techniques is that,first,it does not respectively create gravity-seismic,magnetic-seismic deterministic inversion model from theoretical model,but combines gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic stochastic inversion model from stochastic model;second,after the concept of equivalent geological body being introduced,using feature of independent variable of gravity-magnetic field functions,taking density and susceptibility related to gravity-magnetic func-tion as default parameters of model,the deterministic model is established owing to better solution to the con-tradictioc of difficulty in identifying strata and less test analytical data for density and susceptibility in newly explored area;third,under assumption of independent parent distribution,a real modeling by strata,the prob-lem of difficult plane closure arising in profile modeling is avoided,This technology has richer and more detailed fault and strata information than sparse pattern seismic data in newly explored area,successfully inverses and plots structural map of Indosinian discontinuty in Hefei basin with combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion,With development of high precision gravity-magnetic and overall geophysical technology,it is certain for introducing new methods of stochastic modeling and computational intelligence and promoting the develop-ment of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion to open a new substantial and promoting the develop-ment of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion to open a new substantial path.  相似文献   

Copper-Polymetal Metallogenic Series and Prospecting Perspective of Eastern Section of Gangdise   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZhengYouye XueYingxi GaoShunbao 《中国地质大学学报(英文版)》2003,14(4):349-355

Geological, geophysical, geochemical and remote sensing comprehensive studies show that big ore-prospecting potentiality is contained in the eastern section of the Gangdise Mountains, Tibet.There are various mineralization types with dominant types of porphyry and exhalation. According to their relations with tectonic evolution, they are divided into four kinds of metallogenic series as follows:magnmtic type (Cr, Pt, Cu, Ni) and exhalation type (Cu, Pb, Zn, Ag) ore deposit series related to Neo-Tethys oceanic crust subduction action (125-96 Ma); epithermai type (Au, Ag, Pb, Zn, Sb), altered fractured rock type (Cu, Mo) and skarn rock type (Cu) ore deposit series related to arc-continental collision; porphyry type (Cu, Mo), cryptoexplosion breccia type (Cu, Au, Pb, Zn), shear zone type (Au, Ag, Sb) and skarn rock type (Cu, Fe) ore deposit series with relation to post-orogenic extensional strike-slip. From subductive complex to the north, zoning appears to be crystallization differentiation type (segregation type)-shear zone type (altered rock type)-skarn rock type, epithermai type-porphyry type-porphyry type and exhalation type-exhalation type-hydrothermai filling-replacement type.The ore deposit is characterized by multi-places from the same source, parity and multi-stage, hypabyssal rock from the deep source and poly genetic compound as a whole.  相似文献   

Tree-ring dated landslide movements and their relationship to seismic events in southwestern Montana, USA     

Paul E Carrara  J.Micheal O’Neill 《Quaternary Research》2003,59(1):25-35

To determine periods of incremental landslide movement and their possible relationship to regional seismic events, the tree-ring records of 32 tilted and damaged conifers at three sites on landslides in the Gravelly Range of southwestern Montana were examined. Several signs of disturbance in the tree-ring record indicating landslide movement were observed. Commonly, the tree-ring record displayed a marked reduction in annual ring width and/or the reaction wood formation. The tree-ring records from the three landslide sites indicate multiple periods of movement during the 20th century. Many of the periods of movement indicated by the strongest signals (most trees) at the sites occurred the year following significant earthquakes in the region. Those seismic events for which evidence in the tree-ring record was found at one or more of the three sites are the 1983 Borah Peak, 1959 Hebgen Lake, 1935 Helena, 1925 Clarkson, and 1908 Virginia City earthquakes. This study suggests that many of the landslide movements were triggered by, or are coincident with, earthquakes as much as 200 km from the study area.  相似文献