投影网格中的坐标确定及在台风数值试验中的应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

黄小刚  陆汉城  费建芳  张根生 《热带气象学报》2004,20(5):605-608

在数值计算中,对于已知经纬度的某点,需确定其在不同投影法得到的矩形网格中的具体位置坐标.导出在极射赤面投影、麦卡托圆柱投影和兰勃脱正形圆锥投影等算法中确定位置坐标的精确公式.通过台风路径预报对比试验表明:该方法能有效地减少计算误差的引入,具有较好的应用价值.  相似文献   

台风森拉克路径与预报难点分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

钱燕珍  张寒 《气象》2004,30(9):19-23

研究了 2 0 0 2年 1 6号台风路径的分析与预报过程 ,分析了 0 2 1 6号台风在几次关键点的预报过程中出现疑难 ,预报争议很大的原因。认为类似 0 2 1 6号台风 ,在其生命史中遇到环境场气压系统比较弱时 ,要注意可能出现路径停滞、打转、转折等。这时 ,应仔细分析 ,避免对预报思路的误导 ,减少预报服务思路的大幅度摆动 ,以提高服务质量与效果。注意台风周围的涡旋发生互旋的半径变化、影响的程度 ,在分析弱涡旋时 ,注意水汽通道云图等其他参考工具是有意义的。  相似文献   

ON RELATION OF MESO-α INERTIA WAVE DEVELOPMENT TO RAINSTORM ENHANCEMENT IN TYPHOON POLLY     

丁治英  陈久康 《热带气象学报(英文版)》1997,3(1):61-68

Numerical simulation and diagnosis show that the amplified rainstorm from Typhoon Poily is related to the development/migration of meso-α gravity waves, inhomoseneous stratification distribution andcumulus convection latent heating feedback in the storm; such waves at a large scale are excited bylarge-scale nonlinear advection; substantially amplified ageostrophic wind perturbation resulting fromthe latent heating gives rise to intensified wave amplitude, leading to enhanced rising and thus torrentialrainfall; as the waves migrate towards reduced stability, wave energy is most likely to increase.  相似文献   

COMPARISONS OF EOF AND CCA METHODS IN EXPERIMENTS WITH TYPHOON TRACK     

黄立文  胡基福  常美桂 《热带气象学报(英文版)》1997,3(2):140-151

A predictive model for 24-120 h track of the tropical cyclone over the South ChinaSea is set upusing the predictors of CLIPER and with reference to those of EOF and CCA. This EOF-and CCA-basedmodel is compared with dependent and independent samples in veritring forecasts'Analpees appltwg themethods to 500-hPa geopotential heights have shown that the CCA method is able toconcentrate moreoriginal information of variable fleld that has the best global correlation withtropical cyclone track andthus reduces more efficiently error arisen in forecast,despite that can0nicaldistribution of weighted vari-able coefficients derived by it is less well-defined or smoothed of a spacialpattern as is done by eigenvec-tor in the EOF method. The verification indicates a certain degree of skill in both track predictive model,though better results are yielded in the CCA-based one, whose mean vector errorare 159.27, 314.84,524.12, 813.03, and 987.12 km, respectively for periods of 24, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h. The modelmakes an objective approach for prediction of short-and medium-range track of tropical cyclone in theSouth China Sea.  相似文献   

AN IMPROVEMENT OF STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF TYPHOON TRACKS   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

金一鸣  钟元 《热带气象学报(英文版)》1997,3(2):152-158

In this paper, a statistical interpretation composite forecast model for typhoon track is set up by using numerical forecast products and several forecast schemes. Tested in 1994 typhoon season, its forecastperformance is much better than that of a previous statistical forecast model. The test shows that it is aneffective method that sufficiently Anproves objective forecast of typhoon track using the numerical forecast output products obtained in forecast and adopting several schemes in composition.  相似文献   

初论地质信息有序系列   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

徐道一  孙文鹏  仉宝聚  王湘南 《地学前缘》1997,(Z2)

信息有序系列（ＩＯＳ）是笔者提出的一个新概念，是指具有非随机性定义的信息、非周期性、存在于大量无序中的有序部分特征的有序性。ＩＯＳ的理论是应用基于较少假设的、较为简单的数字或几何模式去研究地质体客观存在的复杂性，减少类似概率分布、周期性、平稳性、遍历理论等假设要求。ＩＯＳ中的一组现象，表面上看类似于周期，但被广义地定义，它们不能被谱分析和统计分析发现。“系列”一词用以与“模型”相区别，其特点是仅在有限范围和短时间内存在，是不平稳和遍历的。“有序”一词是强调在混沌中存在的有序部分，可应用于预测目的。所以，ＩＯＳ是有序性中一部分。大地震、热点、超大型矿床、节理等时空分布表明了ＩＯＳ的客观存在。  相似文献   

Flood and Typhoon Disasters in Viet Nam in the Half Century Since 1950     

Imamura  Fumihiko  Van To  Dang 《Natural Hazards》1997,15(1):71-87

Disasters in Viet Nam are discussed by compiling recent data on the geophysical and social environments, the frequency of disasters, and the values of human and financial losses in 1953–1991. Examinations of yearly frequency and damages caused by typhoons indicate a relatively increasing value of losses in spite of a constant or decreasing frequency in the decade of the 1980s, meaning inadequate prevention programs. The two successive typhoons in 1985 are described as the most catastrophic disaster for 100 years, in which high waves combined with high tides destroyed the dike system and flooded a large area in the central part of Viet Nam, which suggests some serious deficiencies in prevention efforts, especially in coastal areas. Disasters on the coast have been significant because of the rapid growth of the population in the low lands and the destruction of coastal environments, such as coastal erosion caused by a deforestation of mangroves and a short supply of sand. As an example, coastal erosion at Ha Nam Nimh province in the northern part of Viet Nam at an average receding speed of around 15 m/year is described.  相似文献   

关于人工抑制暴雨问题   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

叶家东 《南京气象学院学报》1993,16(3):373-378

  相似文献   

地学信息基础数据库系统—GIS-dB3的基本结构     

胡鹏  艾自兴  郭庆胜 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》1989,(1)

本文介绍了立足于微机和超级微机上的地学信息基础数据库管理系统的基本结构。它采用通用的中西文关系数据库dBASEⅢ编译语言,统一管理地学信息的质量、数量、时间、空间以及信息传输等5个方面的特性数据,以FORTRAN和BASCI编译等系统软件进行数据处理及图形的显示和绘出,即采用各系统软件所长组成了一个地学的基础系统。该系统的空间特性数据中的“边”是采用超图(HYPERGRAPH)的概念组织的。它具有原中西文dBASEⅢ的操作方便、资源广泛,一定的分类统计能力,对各软件界面“友好”的特点,并具有可广泛提供各合理子集数据并使之动态成库,足够大的的分类数及库容和一定的数据独立性的特点。  相似文献   

1994年国家气象中心台风预警评述     

徐夏囡  杨贵名 《气象》1995,21(7):15-20

通过国家气象中心１９９４年热带风暴（台风）的预报服务业务中，有关热带气旋监测、预报信息的使用和预警服务的发布状况，反映我国在热带气旋及有关的灾害性天气预警服务的业务技术水平。同时，对所涉及的有关问题进行了讨论。  相似文献