1999年9月21日台湾集集地震的震源参数综合判定     

陈祥熊 《福建地震》2005,(4)

本文利用半经验、半理论的方法对世界各主要地震汇集和研究机构所给出的集集主震基本震源参数进行了综合计算和评定。根据这些参数重新计算了集集主震的标量地震矩、破裂面积、应力降等。根据这些参数之间的内在联系,从地震分类学的角度,判定集集地震是发生于板块边缘的大地震。可供研究台湾岛上地震活动性以及台湾地区板块构造演化问题参考。  相似文献   

动态Kalman滤波模型误差的影响   总被引：4，自引：11，他引：4  

杨元喜 《测绘科学》2006,31(1):17-18

动态Kalman滤波模型误差的影响与静态平差模型误差影响不同。它包括观测异常误差影响和动力学模型异常的影响。本文分别讨论了观测异常误差和动力学模型异常误差对当前历元滤波结果的影响及对后续历元滤波结果的影响;构建了异常误差影响表达式,并对各类异常误差的检测方法进行了分析。  相似文献   

A New Method for the Determination of Area-Averaged Turbulent Surface Fluxes from Low-Level Flights Using Inverse Models     

Jens Bange  Peter Zittel  Thomas Spieß  Jörg Uhlenbrock  Frank Beyrich 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,119(3):527-561

The low-level flight method (LLF) has been combined with linear inverse models (IM) resulting in an LLF+IM method for the determination of area-averaged turbulent surface fluxes. With this combination, the vertical divergences of the turbulent latent and sensible heat fluxes were calculated from horizontal flights. The statistical errors of the derived turbulent surface fluxes were significantly reduced. The LLF+IM method was tested both in numerical and field experiments. Large-eddy simulations (LES) were performed to compare ‘true’ flux profiles with ‘measurements’ of simulated flights in an idealised convective boundary layer. Small differences between the ‘true’ and the ‘measured’ fluxes were found, but the vertical flux divergences were correctly calculated by the LLF+IM method. The LLF+IM method was then applied to data collected during two flights with the Helipod, a turbulence probe carried by a helicopter, and with the research aircraft Do 128 in the LITFASS-98 field campaign. The derived surface fluxes were compared with results from eddy-covariance surface stations and with large-aperture scintillometer data. The comparison showed that the LLF+IM method worked well for the sensible heat flux at 77 and 200 m flight levels, and also for the latent heat flux at the lowest level. The model quality control indicated failures for the latent heat flux at the 200 m level (and higher), which were probably due to large moisture fluctuations that could not be modelled using linear assumptions. Finally the LLF+IM method was applied to more than twenty low-level flights from the LITFASS-2003 experiment. Comparison with aggregated surface flux data revealed good agreement for the sensible heat flux but larger discrepancies and a higher statistical uncertainty for the latent heat flux  相似文献   

Accuracy assessment and refinement of the JGM-2 and JGM-3 gravity fields for radial positioning of ERS-1     

P. Moore  S. Ehlers  S. Carnochan 《Journal of Geodesy》1998,72(7-8):373-384

ERS-1 radial positioning using the JGM-2 and JGM-3 gravity fields is assessed by analysing dual crossovers with TOPEX/Poseidon, neither field containing ERS-1 data. This method allows a more complete recovery of ERS-1 radial orbit error, specifically of the previously unattainable mean geographical error. The global analysis shows that the theoretical error derived from the JGM-2 covariance matrix is realistic and that JGM-3 represents a slight improvement, at least at the inclination of ERS-1. A latitudinal-based study in the southern ocean indicates possible weaknesses in both fields, notably for low and resonant geopotential orders m. A refinement of JGM-2, RGM-2, is undertaken through inclusion of ERS-1 and STELLA laser tracking and ERS-1 altimetry, reducing several of its deficiencies. Received: 14 May 1996 / Accepted: 17 February 1997  相似文献   

复杂岩性解释模型稳定性和可靠性评价   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

汪宏年 《地球物理学报》1998,41(4):561-569

对解释模型进行评价以及如何选择合适的解释模型是复杂岩性解释中非常重要的问题。本文应用统计学的理论以及非线性优化技术,系统研究了在线性约束条件下对储层参数的置信区域和误差大小进行估计的问题,通过将梯度投影算法与奇异值分解技术相结合的方法给出了计算储层参数置信区域与误差大小的公式,以及对复杂岩性解释模型的稳定性和可靠性进行合理评价的具体方法。最后通过数值计算实例研究了一种能够有效提高解释模型稳定性和可靠性的措施,数值计算结果证明解释模型响应函数的最小非零奇异值大小是影响稳定性和可靠性的一个重要参数,当最小非零奇异值较大时,模型的稳定性往往较好,否则较差,因此通过对解释模型进行适当组合并选取最小非零奇异值较大的综合解释模型,可以大大提高其稳定性和可靠性。  相似文献   

Redescription of a stromateoid fishPampus punctatissimus and comparison withPampus argenteus from chinese coastal waters     

Liu Jing  Li Chun-sheng 《中国海洋湖沼学报》1998,16(2):161-166

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各种物理强迫激发的平均经圈环流特征及其对数值天气预报模式系统误差的贡献     

张绍晴  刘还珠 《大气科学》1996,20(1):112-122

本文证明7种强迫作用激发经圈环流的线性叠加性，分项考察了各种物理强迫激发经圈环流的特征，通过考察一个数值模式的模式大气和实际大气各种物理强迫激发经圈环流的差异，分析了模式系统误差的成因，这种建立在动力背景之上的模式误差分析方法，其物理意义明确，具有较为普遍的适用性。  相似文献   

NWP模式中纬向平均环流系统误差的动力诊断     

张绍晴  刘还珠  吴国雄  杨云峰 《气象学报》1996,54(5):569-579

证明了模式在预报时段的纬向平均环流误差，是由于在预报时段内模式大气和真实大气中西风加速过程的不同造成的。又由于原始方程的无加速定理中各强迫因子具有良好的线性迭加性，因此能够清楚地将造成模式系统误差的动力因子分解开来。通过对Ｔ４２Ｌ９模式的分析，说明原始方程的无加速定理可以作为分析模式系统误差的良好手段。动力诊断分析结果表明，模式对纬向平均环流分布具有较好的预报能力，但在各缔带也存在明显的误差。通过无加速定理的分解分析，本文研究了这些误差的成因及改善模式的可能途径。  相似文献   

紫色土系统分类研究     

唐时嘉  徐建忠  张建辉  罗有芳 《山地学报》1996,(Z1)

以参考文献[1]为指南,研究和鉴比了川鄂湘赣浙滇等省约70个紫色土剖面的属性特征,进行了紫色土系统分类和从土纲至亚类的连续命名.结果是,它们分别归属新成土纲中的紫色正常新成土和雏形土纲中的紫色湿润雏形土等2个土类、9个亚类.最后就土纲、亚纲、土类、亚类进行了检索.  相似文献   

UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFICATION OF SURFACE CHARACTERISTICS: A STUDY OF PREDICTION ERRORS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Kiran Alapaty  Sethu Raman  Devdutta S. Niyogi 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1997,82(3):475-502

The effects of uncertainty in the specification of surface characteristics on simulated atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) processes and structure were investigated using a one-dimensional soil-vegetation-boundary layer model. Observational data from the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment were selected to quantify prediction errors in simulated boundary-layer parameters. Several numerical 12-hour simulations were performed to simulate the convective boundary-layer structure, starting at 0700 LT 6 June 1987.In the control simulation, measured surface parameters and atmospheric data were used to simulate observed boundary-layer processes. In the remaining simulations, five surface parameters – soil texture, initial soil moisture, minimum stomatal resistance, leaf area index, and vegetation cover – were varied systematically to study how uncertainty in the specification of these surface parameters affects simulated boundary-layer processes.The simulated uncertainty in the specification of these five surface parameters resulted in a wide range of errors in the prediction of turbulent fluxes, mean thermodynamic structure, and the depth of the ABL. Under certain conditions uncertainty in the specifications of soil texture and minimum stomatal resistance had the greatest influence on the boundary-layer structure. A lesser but still moderately strong effect on the simulated ABL resulted from (1) a small decrease (4%) in the observed initial soil moisture (although a large increase [40%] had only a marginal effect), and (2) a large reduction (66%) in the observed vegetation cover. High uncertainty in the specification of leaf area index had only a marginal impact on the simulated ABL. It was also found that the variations in these five surface parameters had a negligible effect on the simulated horizontal wind fields. On the other hand, these variations had a significant effect on the vertical distribution of turbulent heat fluxes, and on the predicted maximum boundary-layer depth, which varied from about 1400–2300 m across the 11 simulations. Thus, uncertainties in the specification of surface parameters can significantly affect the simulated boundary-layer structure in terms of meteorological and air quality model predictions.  相似文献