郑州市汛期FSFE02、FSFE03降水预报效果检验     

苏爱芳  王蕊等 《河南气象》2002,(4):16-18

利用2000－2001年6－9月份日本数值预报产品，郑州市降水实况资料及同期天气图，对日本数值预报产品在郑州市汛期天气预报中的应用效果进行了检验。结果表明；用FSFE02，FSFE03作郑州市24h汛期降水预报效果最好的是晴雨预报；各月预报能力有差异；空报率高于漏报率。在500hPa为偏南气流的条件下，该数值产品的预报效率较高；对于两层均为偏北气流及高层低槽中空西北气流的天气系统配置预报效率也较高；若中高层均为低槽，则预报效率最低。  相似文献   

Power of the Mann–Whitney test for detecting a shift in median or mean of hydro-meteorological data     

S. Yue  C. Y. Wang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2002,16(4):307-323

 The non-parametric Mann–Whitney (MW) statistic test has been popularly used to assess the significance of a shift in median or mean of hydro-meteorological time series. It has been considered that the test is more suitable for non-normally distributed data and it may be not sensitive to the distribution type of sample data. However, no evidence has been provided to demonstrate these. This study investigates the power of the test in various circumstances by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation results demonstrate that the power of the test is very sensitive to various properties of sample data. The power depends on the pre-assigned significance level, magnitude of a shift, sample size, and its occurrence position within a time series; and it is also strongly affected by the variation, skewness, and distribution type of a time series. The bigger the magnitude of a shift, the more powerful the test is; the larger the sample size, the more powerful the test is; and the bigger the variation within a time series, the less power the test has. The test has the highest power if a shift occurs at the midpoint of a time series. For the samples with different distribution types, the power of the test is dramatically different. The test has the highest power for time series with the extreme value type III (EV3) distribution while it indicates the lowest power for time series with the lognormal distribution.  相似文献   

云南松根系对土壤牵引效应测试系统的设计与实现   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

刘跃明  张云伟  周跃 《山地学报》2002,20(4):476-479

目前在野外对云南松根系与土壤的机械效庆的研究，由于测试研究受多种因数的影响，开展研究困难较大，研究精度也受到一定程度的影响，这对较深入的描述根系与土壤相互作用的机械效应带来一定的困难。本文基于这一实际，设计了能在室内和野外进行实时测试分析的测试系统，并配套了支持PCMCIA插槽的DAQP－12型模数转换（A／D）卡，以及直流电供电的QT－300型调理装置。结合所配套的硬件，利用Visual C在Windows95/98平台编写了软件，经过实际试验测试，系统各项性能能够满足云南松根系对土壤的机械效应研究的测试分析要求。  相似文献   

干旱区地下水脆弱性特征及评价方法探讨   总被引：29，自引：18，他引：29  

马金珠  高前兆 《干旱区地理》2003,26(1):44-49

干旱区地下水脆弱性是地下水系统本身固有的不稳定属性，是系统结构、功能状态在人类活动干扰及气候变化等自然因素作用下具有的敏感性、易变性和弹性的综合反映。可以以河川径流中冰雪融水比重、地表径流入渗占地下水补给比例、地下水补给强度、地表水的引用率等十项指标（IRRUDQELTS）进行定量评价。通过对塔里木盆地南缘地下水脆弱性评价，表明该区属地下水严重脆弱区，其中又以民丰县、皮山县为极端脆弱，结果与实际情况相符合，说明该评价指标体系具有一定的科学性。  相似文献   

贵州省低纬山地气候变化趋势   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

吉廷艳 《山地学报》2003,21(4):422-427

对贵州气温、降水、灾害指数等要素的气候变化分析表明:20世纪40年代前后贵州处于一个相对温暖时期(这一时期也是北半球大陆气温自1930～1960年代初的明显暖期中),1960～1970年代是一个相对较冷时段,但趋势变化曲线反应出贵州气温呈下降趋势(与全球气候变暖趋势相反),主要表现在春季和夏季变冷明显,秋季和冬季略有变暖;贵州降水趋于减少,主要反应为春季减少较为明显,夏、秋季变化不大,冬季呈增加趋势;各种灾害指数的趋势变化中,春季的倒春寒、夏季的洪涝趋于偏重,秋季的绵雨、冬季的低温和凝冻趋于偏轻,而春旱、夏旱和秋风变化不明显,但春旱存在明显的周期性变化特征;旱涝指数的小波分析指出贵州旱涝有两个比较明显的全域性周期变化,分别是32a和10a周期。  相似文献   

一种求气井二项式方程系数的新方法     

杨彦军  杨宇  张文喜 《矿物岩石》2003,23(2):108-110

针对开发早期气田缺乏产能试井资料的实际情况，由于无法用传统的压力降法计算产能方程，故而基于最优化算法，提出了一种利用稳定生产数据和井控储量求取气井产能方程系数的新方法。在只知道稳定生产数据情况下便可进行计算分析。该方法在气田进行了实际应用，并和实际资料以及传统试凑法计算的结果进行了比较，表明方法的计算结果较为可靠。  相似文献   

灰色系统理论预测大气氮氧化物污染的应用   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

茅均标  石健  刘刚  李继明 《华东地质学院学报》2003,26(1):38-40

根据中国南方某省所辖城市近年来N0x污染指数的测量数据的统计资料，建立了GM(1，1）灰色预测模型，通过预测探讨了大气中氮氧化物指数的变化趋势。所建模型残差仅1．17％，关联系数为0．9067，精度较高，具有较好的可行性和适应性，可以为管理规则提供决策依据。  相似文献   

矿山环境地质问题综合评价指标体系   总被引：28，自引：1，他引：28  

徐友宁  袁汉春何芳陈社斌  张江华 《地质通报》2003,22(10):829-832

本指标体系把矿山环境地质问题归为三大类23项指标，提出以指标指数作为划分环境地质问题危害程度等级的依据，给出2类指标评价指数的计算方法，以及各指标相应的权重。在此基础上，用模糊数学综合评判法评定矿山环境地质问题的历史、现状及其发展趋势的影响程度。在考虑矿山区位条件和恢复治理难度的基础上，最终给出矿山环境地质问题的综合评价等级，该等级也同时反映了矿山地质环境恢复治理的优先顺序。  相似文献   

The Paleo－Environmental Significance of Sr and Ca Contained in Acid－Soluble Fraction of Plateau Loess Deposits in Xining Basin     

谭红兵  马海州  鹿化煜  张西营  魏海珍 《中国地球化学学报》2003,22(2):156-163

The Xining Basin,located on northeastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,is adjacent to the Qaidam Bsim and Gobi-desert.Therefore,thick,integrated deposits of loess or paleo-sol sequence were well developed.As is well known,there is much paleo-environmental information recorded in loess and plaeo-sol.So if we deal with paleo-environmental index from different an gles ,especially from loess geochemistry,some important and detailed paleo-environmental evolutional information will be acquired.Based on this,the authors determined the contents of Sr and Ca contained in acid-soluble fraction from the bottom to the top of the Panzishan section.This section was obtained through making a well about 17 m in depth,including S1 paleo-sol that was developed during the last interglacial period.According to the results,it is found that variations in contents of Sr and Ca are well correlated with conversion of loess and paleo-sol.In loess deposits,the contents of Sr and Ca are higher than those in paleo-sol deposits.It is known that loess was deposited under cold-dry climate conditions and paleo-sol was developed during warm-humid climate episodes.It is concluded that due to their mobile behaviors,under cold-dry climate conditions,Sr and Ca are stagnant during weak weathering,but under warm-humid climate conditions,Sr and Ca are easily leached and transported in aqueous solution.Therefore,they can be utilized as indicatiors of climate changes.Moreover,variations in contents of Sr and Ca are more sensitive than susceptibility.The mobile behaviors of Sr and Ca contained in acid-soluble fraction can serve as a new quantitative index to evaluate paleo-environmental changes on the plateau.  相似文献   

扁铲侧胀试验判别液化的研究和实践   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

陈国民  李隽毅  汤智青 《上海国土资源》2003,(1):20-24

通过对扁铲侧胀试验判别液化的研究和实践，提出了在上海地区采用扁铲侧胀试验判别液化的公式，扁铲侧胀试验判别液化与标准贯入和静力触探试验判别液化的方法对比，具有相对较好的结果，是一种有前途的液化判别方法。  相似文献