Climate change and future flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: converging forecasts from empirical trend projection and down‐scaled global circulation modelling     

Anita Shepherd  Karen M. Gill  Stewart B. Rood 《水文研究》2010,24(26):3864-3877

To predict future river flows, empirical trend projection (ETP) analyses and extends historic trends, while hydroclimatic modelling (HCM) incorporates regional downscaling from global circulation model (GCM) outputs. We applied both approaches to the extensively allocated Oldman River Basin that drains the North American Rocky Mountains and provides an international focus for water sharing. For ETP, we analysed monthly discharges from 1912 to 2008 with non‐parametric regression, and extrapolated changes to 2055. For modelling, we refined the physical models MTCLIM and SNOPAC to provide water inputs into RIVRQ (river discharge), a model that assesses the streamflow regime as involving dynamic peaks superimposed on stable baseflow. After parameterization with 1960–1989 data, we assessed climate forecasts from six GCMs: CGCM1‐A, HadCM3, NCAR‐CCM3, ECHAM4 and 5 and GCM2. Modelling reasonably reconstructed monthly hydrographs (R² about 0·7), and averaging over three decades closely reconstructed the monthly pattern (R² = 0·94). When applied to the GCM forecasts, the model predicted that summer flows would decline considerably, while winter and early spring flows would increase, producing a slight decline in the annual discharge (?3%, 2005–2055). The ETP predicted similarly decreased summer flows but slight change in winter flows and greater annual flow reduction (?9%). The partial convergence of the seasonal flow projections increases confidence in a composite analysis and we thus predict further declines in summer (about ? 15%) and annual flows (about ? 5%). This composite projection indicates a more modest change than had been anticipated based on earlier GCM analyses or trend projections that considered only three or four decades. For other river basins, we recommend the utilization of ETP based on the longest available streamflow records, and HCM with multiple GCMs. The degree of correspondence from these two independent approaches would provide a basis for assessing the confidence in projections for future river flows and surface water supplies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The data‐driven approach as an operational real‐time flood forecasting model     

Phuoc Khac‐Tien Nguyen  Lloyd Hock‐Chye Chua 《水文研究》2012,26(19):2878-2893

Accurate water level forecasts are essential for flood warning. This study adopts a data‐driven approach based on the adaptive network–based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast the daily water levels of the Lower Mekong River at Pakse, Lao People's Democratic Republic. ANFIS is a hybrid system combining fuzzy inference system and artificial neural networks. Five ANFIS models were developed to provide water level forecasts from 1 to 5 days ahead, respectively. The results show that although ANFIS forecasts of water levels up to three lead days satisfied the benchmark, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts were only slightly better in performance compared with the currently adopted operational model. This limitation is imposed by the auto‐ and cross‐correlations of the water level time series. Output updating procedures based on the autoregressive (AR) and recursive AR (RAR) models were used to enhance ANFIS model outputs. The RAR model performed better than the AR model. In addition, a partial recursive procedure that reduced the number of recursive steps when applying the AR or the RAR model for multi‐step‐ahead error prediction was superior to the fully recursive procedure. The RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure significantly improved three‐, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts. Our study further shows that for long lead times, ANFIS model errors are dominated by lag time errors. Although the ANFIS model with the RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure provided the best results, this method was able to reduce the lag time errors significantly for the falling limbs only. Improvements for the rising limbs were modest. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Changes in potential evapotranspiration and surface runoff in 1981–2010 and the driving factors in Upper Heihe River Basin in Northwest China          下载免费PDF全文

Kaisheng Luo  Fulu Tao  Xiangzheng Deng  Juana P. Moiwo 《水文研究》2017,31(1):90-103

Changes in potential evapotranspiration and surface runoff can have profound implications for hydrological processes in arid and semiarid regions. In this study, we investigated the response of hydrological processes to climate change in Upper Heihe River Basin in Northwest China for the period from 1981 to 2010. We used agronomic, climatic and hydrological data to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model for changes in potential evapotranspiration (ET₀) and surface runoff and the driving factors in the study area. The results showed that increasing autumn temperature increased snow melt, resulting in increased surface runoff, especially in September and October. The spatial distribution of annual runoff was different from that of seasonal runoff, with the highest runoff in Yeniugou River, followed by Babaohe River and then the tributaries in the northern of the basin. There was no evaporation paradox at annual and seasonal time scales, and annual ET₀ was driven mainly by wind speed. ET₀ was driven by relative humidity in spring, sunshine hour duration in autumn and both sunshine hour duration and relative humility in summer. Surface runoff was controlled by temperature in spring and winter and by precipitation in summer (flood season). Although surface runoff increased in autumn with increasing temperature, it depended on rainfall in September and on temperature in October and November. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Hydrology and geomorphology of the Upper White Nile lakes and their relevance for water resources management in the Nile basin     

Mohammed El Bastawesy  Safwat Gabr  Kevin White 《水文研究》2013,27(2):196-205

Remote sensing data and digital elevation models were utilized to extract the catchment hydrological parameters and to delineate storage areas for the Ugandan Equatorial Lakes region. Available rainfall/discharge data are integrated with these morphometric data to construct a hydrological model that simulates the water balance of the different interconnected basins and enables the impact of potential management options to be examined. The total annual discharges of the basins are generally very low (less than 7% of the total annual rainfall). The basin of the shallow (5 m deep) Lake Kioga makes only a minor hydrological contribution compared with other Equatorial Lakes, because most of the overflow from Lake Victoria basin into Lake Kioga is lost by evaporation and evapotranspiration. The discharge from Lake Kioga could be significantly increased by draining the swamps through dredging and deepening certain channel reaches. Development of hydropower dams on the Equatorial Lakes will have an adverse impact on the annual water discharge downstream, including the occasional reduction of flow required for filling up to designed storage capacities and permanently increasing the surface areas of water that is exposed to evaporation. On the basis of modelling studies, alternative sites are proposed for hydropower development and water storage schemes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

On the relationship between historical land‐use change and water availability: the case of the lower Tarim River region in northwestern China     

T. Liu  H. Fang  P. Willems  A. M. Bao  X. Chen  F. Veroustraete  Q. H. Dong 《水文研究》2013,27(2):251-261

Natural ecosystems in the region of the lower Tarim River in northwestern China strongly deteriorated since the 1950s due to an expanding desertification. As a result, the downstream Tarim River reaches became permanently dry land. This historical evolution in land‐use change is typically the result of the anthropogenic impact on natural ecosystems. On the basis of a spatially distributed hydrological catchment model bidirectionally linked with a fully hydrodynamic MIKE11 river model, land‐use changes characterized by historical changes in leaf area index (LAI) of vegetation, as well as the evolution of irrigated surface areas, can be causally related to changes in water resources (groundwater storage and surface water resources). An increased surface area of irrigated (agricultural) land, together with a majority of inefficient irrigation methods, did lead to a strong increase of water resources consumption of the farmlands located in the upper Tarim River area. Evidently, this evolution influenced available water resources downstream in the Tarim basin. As a result, farmland has been gradually relocated to the upstream regions. This has led to reduced flows from the upper Tarim stream, which subsequently accelerated the dropping of the groundwater level downstream in the basin. This study moreover demonstrates that land surface biomass changes (cumulative LAI) along the lower Tarim River are strongly related to the changes in groundwater storage. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于ArcGIS平台与质检软件的地理国情普查快速质量控制方法     

宋旭东 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(4):91-94

"信息化质检平台IGCES"及"地理国情普查成果质检软件"是某省地理国情普查采用的主要人机交互质量控制软件。该类软件使用复杂,某些检查项耗时长,难以满足快速化质检的要求,本文结合地理国情普查具体实施要求,提出"人工详查、基于ArcGIS 10.1平台与质检软件概查"的快速质检方法,为国家战略规划制定、空间规划管理、区域政策制定、灾害预警、科学研究等领域的地理国情监测提供有力的数据保障。  相似文献   

关于制作像控电子点之记方法与流程的探讨     

何云贵  茅琦  王智峰 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(9)

主要介绍电子点之记的制作流程及方法,以及所涉及的一些计算机软件和工序中可以自动化处理的程序,对于实现难点也进行了分析及说明,使像片控制测量点之记制作的流程更为简便,成果更为可靠。  相似文献   

农村集体土地确权测量中的塔尖交会技术研究     

张太鹏 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(9):192-194

简要介绍了农村集体土地确权测量中的塔尖交会技术,生成平差文件的方法,以及平差计算的理论模型,最后给出了平差实例,极大地提高了作业效率,达到了满意的效果。  相似文献   

GPS精密卫星钟差估计研究     

孟范伟 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(9):77-79

随着精密单点定位技术的发展,对于精确的卫星坐标以及卫星钟差改正精度的要求越来越高,精密卫星星历以及精密卫星钟差的求解成为制约精密单点定位技术发展的瓶颈。本文基于修复周跳的载波相位观测值与相位平滑伪距观测值,采用无电离层延迟星间单差精密卫星钟差估计模型,在先估计出整周模糊度后,进行了精密卫星钟差的估计,并采用与IGS事后精密钟差作二次差的方法进行精度分析,这对于提高精密单点定位精度具有一定的意义。  相似文献   

高分二号卫星影像融合方法探析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

熊德峰 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(9)

图像融合技术是卫星影像处理过程中的一个重要步骤,它可以将全色影像的高空间分辨率特点与多光谱影像的高光谱分辨率特点有机地结合起来,使得融合后的影像更利于后续解译。由于融合处理方法的原理以及获取影像的传感器特性不同,不同的卫星影像适合于不同的融合方法。针对高分二号卫星影像的特点,本文采用Gram-Schmidt融合法、FIHS变换方法、HPF方法、Pansharp方法进行试验。实验结果表明:HPF方法所得融合结果在光谱特性保持方法性能最优,而Pansharp方法融合结果在信息量的保持以及清晰度方面效果更优,因此,在实际应用中,应根据具体需求进行方法选择。  相似文献