Seismic and volcanic hazards in Peru: changing attitudes to disaster mitigation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

MARTIN R DEGG  DAVID K CHESTER† 《The Geographical journal》2005,171(2):125-145

Over the last 15 years there have been dramatic shifts in the consensus over how best to cope with natural hazards in economically developing regions such as South America. One very positive outcome of the United Nations sponsored International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR 1990–2000) has been that there is now greater interchange between the work of earth scientists examining the processes and mechanics of hazard occurrence and impact, and social scientists exploring the causes of human vulnerability to hazard – and thereby disaster. This paper traces the development of this new understanding with reference to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions in Peru, one of the most hazardous countries in South America. Particular focus is placed on the excellent progress currently being made by scientists in better understanding the physical dimensions of natural hazard exposure, and the ground-breaking work by social scientists in promoting new approaches to understanding and mitigating human vulnerability to disaster. The paper concludes by emphasizing the need to build on this research to produce more inclusive, incultured and unified strategies of disaster mitigation at the local, national and international levels.  相似文献   

The Local Tsunami Alert System [``SLAT']: A Computational Tool for the Integral Management of a Tsunami Emergency     

Ramirez  F. Jorge  Perez  P. Carlos 《Natural Hazards》2004,31(1):129-142

During a tsunami emergency numerous local authorities responsible for the security oflocal persons and businesses which function in the coastal zone are required to makecritical decisions within a very short time frame. It is known that the consequencesof the situation will depend on the quality and quantity of decisions which they makeor allow to occur at the critical time. Based on this concept, the Local System of Tsunami Alert (SLAT; Spanish) was developed. This is a computational tool designed for the automatic implementation of integral management for an emergency of this type.The System is able to immediately evaluate possible risks and determine thetype of alert represented (Red, Yellow, Green, Blue, and Celeste) if relevantdata such as coordinates of the epicenter, magnitude, date, and origin of theearthquake (>6.5° on the Richter scale) threatening the Pacific areknown. Other relevant data include location of the coastal or marine epicentreand the superficial hypocenter. The relevant data may now be obtained fromthe internet from international seismological services, and fed into the programto give the most probable time for arrival of the first wave train at a given pointof interest, whether this be a port, bathing area, generating plant, or coastal city.The program also gives the time required for the first wave train to arrive at agiven coast, and displays a menu of previously planned actions to be taken accordingto the type of alert. It also permits dissemination of a bulletin with critical data and action plans by fax or e-mail to scattered users as well as for storage on the computer disc. The system is designed in a way that the user always confirms with authorities that anevent has in fact been generated. On a local scale, the user is required to prepare an operative emergency plan of action to be followed by his company, community, or municipality, to be followed for each type of alert.The System permits carrying out test exercises with the users, as well as simulationof past events. Knowledge concerning past events permits understanding correctdesign of emergency action plans for mitigation of potential present and future events.This software is specifically designed for the Pacific Coast of South America, and isprepared in Spanish, with the intention of improving responses of inhabitants of coastalareas to the potential threat from tsunamis.  相似文献   

Landslide and Tsunami 21 November 2000 in Paatuut,West Greenland   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Dahl-Jensen  Trine  Larsen  Lotte Melchior  Pedersen  Stig A. Schack  Pedersen  Jerrik  Jepsen  Hans F.  Pedersen  Gunver  Nielsen  Tove  Pedersen  Asger Ken  Von Platen-Hallermund  Frants  Weng  Willy 《Natural Hazards》2004,31(1):277-287

A large landslide occurred November 21, 2000 at Paatuut, facing the Vaigat Strait onthe west coast of Greenland. 90 million m³ (260 million tons) of mainly basalticmaterial slid very rapidly (average velocity 140 km/h) down from 1,000–1,400 maltitude. Approximately 30 million m³ (87 million tons) entered the sea, creatinga tsunami with an run-up height of 50 m close to the landslide and 28 m at Qullissat,an abandoned mining town opposite Paatuut across the 20 km wide Vaigat strait. Theevent was recorded seismically, allowing the duration of the slide to be estimated tocirca 80 s and also allowing an estimate of the surface-wave magnitude of the slideof 2.3. Terrain models based on stereographic photographs before and after the slidemade it possible to determine the amount of material removed, and the manner ofre-deposition. Simple calculations of the tsunami travel times are in good correspondencewith the reports from the closest populated village, Saqqaq, 40 km from Paatuut, whererefracted energy from the tsunami destroyed a number of boats. Landslides are notuncommon in the area, due to the geology with dense basaltic rocks overlying poorlyconsolidated sedimentary rocks, but the size of the Paatuut slide is unusual. Based onthe observations it is likely at least 500 years since an event with a tsunami of similarproportions occurred. The triggering of the Paatuut slide is interpreted to be caused byweather conditions in the days prior to the slide, where re-freezing melt water inpre-existing cracks could have caused failure of the steep mountain side.  相似文献   

Unusual sedimentary deposits on the SE side of Stromboli volcano, Italy: products of a tsunami caused by the ca. 5000 years BP Sciara del Fuoco collapse?     

Lawrence H. Tanner  Sonia Calvari 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2004,137(4):329-340

The role of sector collapse in the generation of catastrophic volcanigenic tsunami has become well understood only recently, in part because of the problems in the preservation and recognition of tsunami deposits. Tinti et al. [Tinti, S., Bortolucci, E., Romagnoli, C., 2000. Computer simulations of tsunamis due to sector collapse at Stromboli, Italy. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 96, 103–128] modeled a tsunami produced by the c. 5,000 years BP collapse of the Sciara del Fuoco on the island volcano Stromboli. Although deposits associated with this event are generally lacking on the island, volcaniclastic breccias on the SE side of the island extending to an elevation above 120 m a.s.l. may have been generated by this tsunami. Deposits above 100 m are dominated by coarse breccias comprising disorganized, poorly sorted, nonbedded, angular to subangular lava blocks in a matrix of finer pyroclastic debris. These breccias are interpreted as a water-induced mass flow, possibly a noncohesive debris flow, generated as colluvial material on steep slopes was remobilized by the return flow of the tsunami wave, the run-up of which reached an elevation exceeding 120 m a.s.l. Finer breccias of subrounded to rounded lava blocks cropping out at 15 m a.s.l. are similar to modern high-energy beach deposits and are interpreted as beach material redeposited by the advancing tsunami wave. The location of these deposits matches the predicted location of the maximum tsunami wave amplitude as calculated by modeling studies of Tinti et al. [Tinti, S., Bortolucci, E., Romagnoli, C., 2000. Computer simulations of tsunamis due to sector collapse at Stromboli, Italy. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 96, 103–128]. Whereas the identification and modeling of paleo-tsunami events is typically based on the observation of the sedimentary deposits of the tsunami run-up, return flow may be equally or more important in controlling patterns of sedimentation.  相似文献   

Preliminary investigations of the tsunami hazard of Kick'em Jenny submarine volcano     

Martin S. Smith  John B. Shepherd 《Natural Hazards》1993,7(3):257-277

Kick'em Jenny is a submarine volcano situated 9 kilometres north of Grenada in the Lesser Antilles. A preliminary study suggests that the volcano is a prime candidate for tsunamigenic eruptions on a potentially hazardous scale, possibly affecting the whole of the Eastern Caribbean region. The uniqueness of individual volcanic eruptions means that attempts to generalise tsunamigenic mechanisms are extremely tentative. However, the theory of underwater explosion generated water waves is applicable to submarine volcanoes to model explosive eruptions. Using this theory, initial maximum ocean surface displacements are calculated for Kick'em Jenny hydroeruptions, corresponding to various event magnitudes (up to a worst-case scenario eruption on the scale of Krakatau, 1883). Wave propagation theories are then applied to the resulting tsunami wave dispersion, before beach shoaling equations are used to estimate the maximum tsunami run-up at adjacent coastal areas. Maps of the region have been prepared showing the paths of the wave-fronts (ray-tracing), travel times and maximum wave run-up amplitudes along coastlines. Finally, an attempt is made to assess how great a hazard the volcano represents, by considering the probability of each magnitude event occurring.  相似文献   

The great 1787 Mexican tsunami     

Francisco J. Núñez-Cornú  Modesto Ortiz  John J. Sánchez 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(3):569-576

Tsunamis have proven to represent a significant hazard around the globe and there is increased awareness about their occurrence. The Pacific coast in southern México is no exception, because there is firm evidence of the effects of past large tsunamis. Here we present results from computer-aided modeling of the March 28, 1787-“San Sixto” earthquake and tsunami, and focus on the regions of Acapulco, Corralero, Jamiltepec, and Tehuantepec, located along the Guerrero-Oaxaca coast. The theoretical waveforms suggest wave heights in excess of 4 m and 18 m at specific locations in Acapulco and Corralero, respectively, and wave heights of at least 2 m at locations in Jamiltepec and Tehuantepec. From our modeling results and based on historical documents and the topography of the area, we conclude that these wave heights would have been sufficient to cause inundations that in the case of Acapulco were restricted to several meters inland, but in other areas like Corralero reached at least 6 km inland. Our results are consistent with published and unpublished damage reports that attest to the hazards associated with great earthquakes and tsunamis along the subduction zone in Mexico  相似文献   

Simushir earthquakes and tsunami of November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007     

I. N. Tikhonov  N. F. Vasilenko  D. E. Zolotukhin  T. N. Ivelskaya  A. A. Poplavsky  A. S. Prytkov  A. I. Spirin 《Russian Journal of Pacific Geology》2008,2(1):1-14

The earthquakes and tsunami on November 15, 2006 and January 13, 2007, near Simushir Island are described. Long-term and short-term precursors of the phenomena are discussed. A joint analysis of the seismological and geodetic data provided reliable interpretation of the source mechanisms of the earthquakes. The actions of the tsunami warning personnel are analyzed. Extensive experimental data on the tsunami occurrence at different sites of the Pacific Ocean are presented. The tsunami of November 15, 2006, was numerically modeled using coseismic vertical displacements of the ocean bottom calculated from GPS data. The observed and calculated data on the maximal tsunami run up are compared.  相似文献   

2011年3月11日日本地震海啸越洋传播及对中国影响的数值分析   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

王培涛  于福江  赵联大  范婷婷  侯京明 《地球物理学报》2012,55(9):3088-3096

北京时间2011年3月11日13时46分(05:46 UTC)日本东北部近海(38.3°N,142.4°E)发生M_w9.0级特大地震,此次地震的强度为日本近1200a来最强.随后环太平洋的数十个国家和地区的验潮站和海啸监测浮标均监测到了强震引发的越洋海啸,海啸奔袭23 h到达南美洲的智利沿岸;此次海啸除了对近场的日本东北部沿岸地区造成了巨大灾害,还对太平洋东岸的部分国家和地区造成了一定程度的影响.地震发生4 h后海啸波到达我国台湾东部沿海,6~8 h海啸波到达我国大陆东南沿海,受此影响我国发布了第一份海啸蓝色警报.本文利用海啸数值模型对此次地震海啸的产生、越洋传播过程进行了数值模拟,给出了海啸波能量在我国近海及泛太平洋区域分布特征;同时重点模拟分析了海啸波在日本及中国近海传播的波动特征,模拟结果与观测数据吻合良好.最后通过对数值模拟结果的分析,阐述了此次海啸对中国的影响,给出了潜在的日本地震海啸对中国的风险估计.  相似文献   

越洋海啸的数值模拟及其对我国的影响分析   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5  

王培涛  于福江  赵联大  刘秋兴 《海洋学报》2012,34(2):39-47

简要介绍了地震海啸产生的物理机制、海啸波在大洋中的传播特性以及海啸所具有的超强破坏力可能引发的巨大灾害;概述了全球地震海啸发生的频率和太平洋区域历史海啸的时空分布;整理分析了我国沿海发生海啸的频次和空间分布。针对越洋海啸传播的特点,采用基于波浪追逐原理和自适应网格加密技术的海啸数值模型对1960智利海啸进行了数值模拟,将模拟的结果与历史记录进行了对比,验证了模型的可靠性。通过对数值模拟结果的分析,初步讨论了我国沿海地区越洋海啸的危险性,并定量阐述了越洋海啸对我国各海区的影响。  相似文献   

2011年日本Mw 9.0级地震的GPS响应研究     

刘焱雄  范士杰  乔方利  周兴华  张健 《海洋学报》2012,34(6):59-65

2011年3月11日日本宫城县以东太平洋海域发生Mw9.0级特大地震,造成了地表的严重错位并引发海啸。文中利用位于日本及周边国家的IGS站和国家海洋局GPS业务站观测数据,采用作者研制的精密单点定位(PPP)软件UniP,对此次地震的GPS数据响应进行了研究。结果表明:(1)GPS观测数据能清晰、连续地记录震时地表形变的过程,我国CHAN,NCST等站点水平方向的震时最大位移在10 cm以内,高程方向的震时最大位移在15 cm以内,且形变以可恢复性的弹性形变为主。(2)我国距震中较远,受此次日本地震的影响较小,且大部分站点是在东坐标方向出现不同程度的震后永久性位移。其中CHAN站点的震后位移最为明显,东向形变量为(1.8±0.11)cm;NCST、NLHT站点次之,东向形变量分别为(1.1±0.26)cm和(1.0±0.18)cm。(3)地震波传输到国家海洋局GPS业务站NCST、NLHT等的时间约为10 min,比海啸在深海的传播速度快约14倍,可为海啸预警提供所需的时间差。这些结果显示出GPS能够为地震监测和动力学特征研究提供有价值的基础资料,也表明中国沿海GPS业务观测系统在海底地震监测、海啸预警服务中的应用潜力。  相似文献