Statistic forecast of typhoons going over the Chinese coasts     

FENG Lihua  WU Zhanghua 《地理学报》2003,13(3):305-308

According to the measured data of typhoons going over the Chinese coasts in 1949-2002, a statistic relative equation showing the relation between the central atmospheric pressure of typhoons in a certain region at a certain period of time and their accumulation of frequency is established, and the concept of recurrence interval of typhoons is put forward, which is of actual significance for typhoon disaster reduction along the coastal area.  相似文献   

易门式大型铜矿床构造成矿动力学模型   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5  

韩润生  刘丛强  马德云  王红才  马更生 《地质科学》2003,38(2):200-213

针对金属矿床隐伏矿定位预测的关键问题,在提出构造成矿动力学的分支学术方向的基础上,以易门式大型铜矿床为例,从成矿地质背景、矿田构造、构造地球化学和成矿构造应力场等方面进行构造成矿动力学研究,阐述在构造应力场控制下成矿流体运移和聚集的规律。构造地球化学研究认为,构造地球化学异常反映矿体的原生晕;构造地球化学异常受构造控制,其分带特征可指示成矿流体的流向,并提供矿床成因和隐伏矿(化)体相对埋深的信息。构造应力场的控矿特征主要表现在:构造应力场导致控矿构造的形成,并驱动成矿流体的运移;构造应力场控制了成矿能量场;应力和能量的高值集中区分布特点可反映某些构造型式。在此基础上建立构造成矿动力学模型,概括隐伏矿成矿预测准则,据此提出若干重点找矿靶区和靶位,其中部分靶区得到工程验证,表明构造成矿动力学方法对隐伏矿定位预测和评价具有重要的指导意义。  相似文献   

Mechanisms of riverbank failure along the Arno River,central Italy     

Stefano Dapporto  Massimo Rinaldi  Nicola Casagli  Pietro Vannocci 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2003,28(12):1303-1323

Riverbanks along the Arno River have been investigated with the aims of de?ning the main mechanisms of failure and retreat, their spatial distribution, and their causes. Geomorphological aspects were investigated by a reconnaissance of riverbank processes, for a number (26) of representative sites. Laboratory and in situ tests were then performed on a selected number of riverbanks (15). Based on the material characteristics, six main typologies of riverbanks have been de?ned, with homogeneous ?ne‐grained and composite banks representing the most frequent types. Slab‐type failures are the most frequent mechanism observed on ?ne‐grained banks, while cantilever failures prevail on composite banks. The role of river stage and related pore water pressure distributions in triggering the main observed mechanisms of failure has been investigated using two different types of stability analysis. The ?rst was conducted for 15 riverbanks, using the limit equilibrium method and considering simpli?ed hypotheses for pore water pressure distribution (annulment of negative pore pressures in the portion of the bank between low water stage and peak stage). Stability conditions and predicted mechanisms of failure are shown to be in reasonably good agreement with ?eld observations. Three riverbanks, representative of the main alluvial reaches of the river, were then selected for a more detailed bank stability analysis, consisting of: (a) de?nition of characteristic hydrographs of the reach with different return periods; (b) modelling of saturated and unsaturated ?ow using ?nite element seepage analysis; and (c) stability analysis with the limit equilibrium method, by adopting pore water pressure values derived from the seepage analysis. The results are compared to those obtained from the previous simpli?ed analysis, and are used to investigate the different responses, in terms of stability, to different hydrological and riverbank conditions. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Old inherited origin for the present near-bimodal topography of Africa     

C. Moctar Doucour  Maarten J. de Wit 《Journal of African Earth Sciences》2003,36(4):371-388

Africa’s landscape is dominated by a manifold of second-order epeirogenic structures superimposed on a first-order bimodal topography. Bivariate regression analysis of Africa’s surface topography shows that this is a complexly folded surface with regionally elevated areas in southern and eastern Africa, and a topographically low northern and western Africa. The apparent spatial relationships between these features are analysed using anomaly correlation between surface topography and free-air gravity anomalies. Occurrences of positively correlated features between gravity and topography in Africa are found to be limited to second-order epeirogenic features. Geophysical modelling and geologic evidence indicate that Africa’s bimodal topography is genetically distinct from these second-order features, and linked to sources as deep as the sublithospheric mantle. The age, measured and modelled elevation of the bimodal topography require that topographic uplift of south-central Africa be episodic. We infer from our findings together with relative sea-level changes, that the near-bimodality of Africa’s topography is an ancient feature inherited at least from upper Paleozoic times. Our reconstructed paleotopography suggests that Africa was largely a low-lying continent dominated by its cratons, and that basement distribution disregards the present-day uplift patterns of Africa.  相似文献   

HUBEX强化观测期雷达测雨在水文过程模拟中的应用(英)   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

REN Liliang  LI Chunhong  WANG Meirong 《大气科学进展》2003,20(2):205-211

选择全球能量与水循环亚洲季风试验区的淮河黄泥庄水文站控制的史河流域(805 km2)为研究区域,基于数字高程模型,生成栅格水流流向,构建数字流域及空间拓扑关系;然后,将阜阳雷达观测数据经过订正校准后作为研究区内每一栅格单元上的雨量输入,并在每一栅格上应用新安江模型构建产流模型;再根据每一栅格至流域出口断面-黄泥庄水文站的距离,运用Muskingum方法进行汇流演算,从而获得黄泥庄站的流量过程。计算结果显示,从1998年5月31日-8月3日的强化观测期内模型确定性系数为92.41％,其间4场洪水的确定性系数分别为85.64％、86.62％、92.57％和83.91％,高于应用地面雨量计观测的数据计算的结果。这说明雷达测雨数据具有较高的时空分辨率,当它应用于水文过程模拟时优于地面雨量计资料,基于栅格的水文模型为充分利用雷达数据提供了良好平台。  相似文献   

台风路径及闽南台风天气预报业务系统          下载免费PDF全文

何歆  林伙海 《气象》1997,23(9):17-20

该文应用ＨＵＲＲＡＮ相似台风路径预报方法，引进５００ｈＰａ天气形势，提高了台风咱径预报能力；应用天气学方法、物理量诊断和预报员的丰富实践经验，以及卫星云图上的台风云系特征，研制台风影响下的闽南台风天气（大风、暴雨）预报专家系统，得出定量、客观的预报结论。该系统运行所需的资料易于获取，从采集资料到输出预报结果，１０分钟便可完成，大大缩短了制作台风预报的时间。  相似文献   

“96.8”特大暴雨的中尺度对流云团特征   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

杜青文  张迎新 《气象》1997,23(10):39-43

１９９６年８月３－５日河北省的西南部地区出现了特大暴雨过程。此次特大暴雨，主要是８６０８号台风登陆后减弱为低气压西北上，副热带高压加强西进，低层从东北部有弱冷空气扩散南下，在暴雨区域形成湿斜压锋区，触发不稳定能量释放，致使台我低压北方形成３个中尺度对流云团所致。  相似文献   

有眼台风的自动定位方法初探   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

冯民学  于波  陈必云  周煜 《气象》1997,23(12):15-17

利用ＧＭＳ红外云图对眼台风云系的定位问题进行了探讨，并根据其云系特征，提出了一种基于台风云系形状分析的自动定位方法。  相似文献   

台风区和外围暴雨区的旋转风、散度风动能收支          下载免费PDF全文

励申申  寿绍文 《大气科学学报》1997,20(1):108-113

用完全的散度风(v_D)和旋转风(v_R)动能收支方程对8116台风和8407台风以及8116台风与其外围暴雨区的关系作了讨论。结果表明:台风区的有效位能通过散度风动能(K_D)转换为旋转风动能(K_R).台风向区域外部输出动能,在暴雨区上空通过涡度、散度场相互作用的转换机制由K_R向K_D转换,散度风加大触发对流发展产生暴雨,这可能是台风与其外围暴雨联系的一种能量过程。  相似文献   

数字滤波方法在月尺度数值预报中的应用：II.保留不同低频过程的效果比较          下载免费PDF全文

杨燕  纪立人 《大气科学》1997,21(5):533-534

用数字滤波方法对观测资料序列进行处理，得到初始场用于Ｔ４２Ｌ９全球谱模式的月预报，以去除误差增长较快的高频扰动对低频过程的影响，并且利用多时刻的观测资料提取低频过程的信息。对冬季和夏季两个不同个例进行了实例，并比较了取不同长度的观测序列，截取不同周期的过程作为初值对预报效果的影响。结果说明，经过滤波后对低频分量和平均场的预报都有显著的改进。而且对于较长时效的预报，应保留更低频的过程（比如１０ｄ以上  相似文献