一次华南暴雨过程的数值模拟———中尺度对流系统形成发展机制   总被引：7，自引：4，他引：3  

张旭斌  张熠 《气象科学》2011,31(2):145-152

2008年6月11-13日在华南地区出现了特大暴雨,这主要是由一系列中尺度对流系统(MCS)的相继生成,合并和强烈发展导致的.该研究利用新一代中尺度数值模式WRF对此次暴雨过程进行数值模拟,重点研究此次强降水过程中MCS发生、发展和演变过程及其相关物理机制.在MCS的生成过程中,由于西南涡的存在导致MCS始终处于正涡度环境中,正涡度导致的低层辐合与大气静力不稳定都是重要的MCS启动机制,这两者的共同作用有利于MCS的生成与加强.MCS形成后,在强垂直切变的环境中,倾斜抬升机制发生作用,更进一步加强了环境涡度,形成有利的正反馈过程,造成MCS迅速发展.这些加强的MCS和大尺度环境流场相互作用,造成了它们的合并.在MCS的分裂过程中,马氏力起着重要作用.  相似文献   

Two Types of Arctic Oscillation and Their Associated Dynamic Features   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

SHI Ning  BUEH Cholaw 《大气和海洋科学快报》2011,4(5):287-292

In this paper,the dynamical evolutions of two types of Arctic Oscillation (AO),the stratospheric (S) and tropospheric (T) types,have been investigated on an intermediate time scale in terms of transient eddy feedback forcing and three-dimensional Rossby wave propagation.S-Type (T-type) events are characterized by an anomalous stratospheric polar vortex that is in phase (out of phase) with its tropospheric counterpart.Approximately onethird of AO events,both positive and negative,are T-type events.For the positive phase of a T-type event,the formation and maintenance of stratospheric positive anomalies over the polar cap are associated with an upward propagation of Rossby wave packets originating from the near-tropopause altitude over northeastern Asia.However,such upward propagating features are not found for S-type events.In the troposphere,transient eddy feedback forcing is primarily responsible for the meridional seesaw structure of both the S-and T-type events,with an additional contribution from Rossby wave propagation.  相似文献   

梅雨期青藏高原东移对流系统影响江淮流域降水的研究   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

傅慎明  孙建华  赵思雄  李万莉  李博 《气象学报》2011,69(4):581-600

利用GOES-9和FY-2C卫星TBB资料、1°×1°的NCEP再分析资料以及常规地面观测资料对2003和2007年梅雨期内青藏高原东移对流系统影响重庆、四川以及江淮梅雨锋地区降水的主要方式作了研究。结果表明,2003和2007年梅雨期内,青藏高原东移对流系统影响下游地区降水主要存在4种方式:(1)高原上的动力辐合中心伴随高原对流系统东移,影响所经地区的降水,该种影响方式较为常见,持续时间较长,影响范围较广。(2)高原对流系统移出高原后在四川盆地引发稳定少动的西南低涡,触发一系列暴雨过程,此种影响方式持续时间较长,主要影响地区为四川和重庆(往往会造成强度很大的暴雨),当西南低涡以东盛行较强西南风时,向梅雨锋的动能输送较强,这十分有利于梅雨锋地区对流活动和降水的加强。(3)高原东移对流系统在四川盆地触发西南低涡,西南低涡生成后,在引导槽的作用下沿梅雨锋东移,沿途引发一系列暴雨,此种影响方式持续时间最长,波及范围最广。(4)对流系统东移出青藏高原后直接影响下游地区,此种影响方式最为常见,但其影响时间最短,强度最小。对环境场的分析表明,高原强对流往往发生在500hPa影响槽槽区附近的上升运动区,当200hPa高空急...  相似文献   

The Energy Budget of a Southwest Vortex With Heavy Rainfall over South China   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

FU Shenming  SUN Jianhu  ZHAO Sixiong  LI Wanli 《大气科学进展》2011,28(3):709-724

Energy budgets were analyzed to study the development of an eastward propagating southwest vortex (SWV) associated with heavy rainfall over southern China(11-13 June 2008).The results show that kinetic energy(KE) generation and advection were the most important KE sources,while friction and sub-grid processes were the main KE sinks.There was downward conversion from divergent to rotational wind KE consistent with the downward stretching of SWVs.The Coriolis force was important for the formation and maintenance of the SWV.Convergence was also an important factor for maintenance,as was vertical motion during the mature stage of the SWV and the formation stage of a newly formed vortex(vortex B).The conversion from available potential energy(APE) to KE of divergent wind can lead to strong convection.Vertical motion influenced APE by dynamical and thermal processes which had opposite effects. The variation of APE was related to the heavy rainfall and convection;in this case,vertical motion with direct thermal circulation was the most important way in which APE was released,while latent heat release and vertical temperature advection were important for APE generation.  相似文献   

A Study of Structure and Mechanism of a Meso-beta-scale Convective Vortex and Associated Heavy Rainfall in the Dabie Mountain Area Part I: Diagnostic Analysis of the Structure     

XU Wenhui  NI Yunqi  WANG Xiaokang  QIU Xuexing  BAO Xinghu  JIN Wenyan 《大气科学进展》2011,28(5):1159-1176

An analysis was conducted on the evolutional process of a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) and associated heavy rainfall in the Dabie Mountain area on 21-22 June 2008,as well as their structural characteristics in different stages,by using the mesoscale reanalysis data with 3 km and 1 h resolution generated by the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) in the Southern China Heavy Rainfall Experiment.The results showed that the latent heat released by convection in the midtroposphere was the main energy source for the development of a low-level vortex.There was a positive feedback interaction between the convection and the vortex,and the evolution of the MCV was closely related to the strength of the positive interaction.The most typical characteristics of the thermal structure in different stages were that,there was a relatively thin diabatic heating layer in the midtroposphere in the formative stage;the thickness of diabatic heating layer significantly increased in the mature stage;and it almost disappeared in the decay stage.The characteristics of the dynamic structure were that,in the formative stage,there was no anticyclonic circulation at the high level;in the mature stage,an anticyclonic circulation with strong divergence was formed at the high level;in the decay stage,the anticyclonic circulation was damaged and the high-level atmosphere was in a disordered state of turbulence.Finally,the structural schematics of the MCV in the formative and mature stage were established respectively.  相似文献   

绕流对称性破缺诱发柔细结构振动研究——以Tacoma大桥风振致毁事故为例     

葛秀坤  赵庆贤  邵辉  陆钰 《地震学刊》2011,(4):430-435

绕流对称性破缺往往对柔细结构产生很大的作用效应,诱发结构振动,严重影响其可靠性和安全性。基于圆柱平面绕流模型,系统分析了实际流体圆柱绕流纵向对称性破缺以及各种情况的横向对称性破缺现象。为了更加深入地理解理论分析的结果,利用Fluent软件对圆柱绕流模型进行了计算机模拟,详细分析了雷诺数为10、20、40、100、200、2000、20000时的绕流情况,结果显示,当雷诺数为200时,流场开始出现横向对称性破缺。在此基础上,以Tacoma大桥风振致毁事故为例,分情况探讨了旋涡同步交替脱落导致的桥面起伏性振动,以及旋涡异步交替脱落导致的桥面扭振。分析结果表明,绕流对称性破缺是诱发大桥振动破坏的直接原因。  相似文献   

Verification of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasts for Major Stratospheric Sudden Warmings in Northern Winter from 1998/99 to 2012/13     

Masakazu TAGUCHI 《大气科学进展》2020,37(3):250-258

This study reports verification results of hindcast data of four systems in the subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)prediction project for major stratospheric sudden warmings(MSSWs)in northern winter from 1998/99 to 2012/13.This report deals with average features across all MSSWs,and possible differences between two MSSW types(vortex displacement and split types).Results for the average features show that stratospheric forecast verifications,when further averaged among the four systems,are judged to be successful for lead times around 10 d or shorter.All systems are skillful for lead times around 5 d,whereas the results vary among the systems for longer lead times.A comparison between the MSSW types overall suggests larger forecast errors or lower skill for MSSWs of the vortex split type,although the differences do not have strong statistical significance for almost all cases.This limitation is likely to at least partly reflect the small sample size of the MSSWs available.  相似文献   

GRAPES区域集合预报条件性台风涡旋重定位方法研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吴政秋  张进  陈静  庞波  夏宇  陈法敬 《气象学报》2020,78(2):163-176

为了在集合预报中更合理描述台风涡旋中心定位的不确定性,采用2009—2018年中国气象局和日本气象厅台风最佳路径数据,分析台风最佳路径涡旋中心定位的不确定性特征,在此基础上设计条件性台风涡旋重定位方法（Conditional Typhoon Vortex Relocation,CTVR）,构建集合成员台风涡旋中心重定位阈值条件、台风涡旋分离数学处理及涡旋重定位等数学处理过程,利用中国气象局数值预报中心区域集合预报系统（Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediciton System-Regional Ensemble System,GRAPES-REPS）对2018年西北太平洋上的3个台风（1808号“玛莉亚”、1824号“谭美”和1825号“康妮”）进行轴对称结构和轴对称+非对称结构条件性台风涡旋重定位两种方案的集合预报试验和检验评估。结果表明:（1）中国气象局和日本气象厅台风最佳路径误差平均值为13.72 km,可视为台风涡旋中心定位不确定性的合理估计值;（2）统计检验结果和典型个例分析表明,采用轴对称结构和轴对称+非对称结构条件性台风涡旋重定位方法的台风集合预报路径误差及集合预报一致性结果比较接近;（3）条件性台风涡旋重定位方法可以有效改进GRAPES-REPS区域集合预报台风路径概率预报效果,如台风路径集合预报平均误差有所减小,集合预报一致性（路径离散度与路径均方根误差比值）增大,特别是预报初期概率预报效果改进更为显著,而预报中后期改进有限;（4）通过对“玛莉亚”台风集合预报诊断分析发现,经过条件性台风涡旋重定位后,各集合成员的台风路径误差在预报初期明显减小且路径收敛,但随着预报时效的延长台风路径逐渐发散。应用条件性台风涡旋重定位方法后,台风涡旋环流与大尺度环境场仍然比较连续协调,且台风涡旋环流外的大尺度环境场具有一致性特点,最低气压误差、最大风速误差和降水预报技巧基本不变。可见,条件性台风涡旋重定位方法的应用可以提供更准确的台风路径预报不确定性信息,帮助预报员做出更准确的预报决策。   相似文献   

Modeling of twin-turbine systems with vertical axis tidal current turbine: Part II—torque fluctuation     

Ye Li  Sander M. Calisal 《Ocean Engineering》2011,38(4):550-558

We recently showed the advantage of using a numerical system to extract energy from tidal currents by developing a new twin-turbine model (Li and Calisal, 2010a). Encouraged by this result, we decided to use this model to study another important characteristic of the turbine system, torque fluctuation. This effort is summarized in this paper. The torque fluctuation is expected to reduce the fatigue life of tidal current turbines, though potentially it also may deteriorate the power quality of tidal current turbines. In this paper, after reviewing the twin-turbine model, we use it to predict the torque fluctuation of the system with the same configurations as we used to study the power output in Li and Calisal (2010a). Specifically, we investigate the torque fluctuation of twin-turbine systems with various turbine parameters (e.g., relative distance between two turbines and incoming flow angle) and operational condition (e.g., tip speed ratio). The results suggest that the torque of an optimally configured twin-turbine system fluctuates much less than that of the corresponding stand-alone turbine, under the same operating conditions. We then extensively compare the hydrodynamic interaction’s impact on the torque fluctuation and the power output of the system. We conclude that the hydrodynamic interactions pose more constructive impacts on the torque fluctuation than on the power output. The findings indicate that the optimally configured counter-rotating system should be a side-by-side system, and that the optimally configured co-rotating system should have the downstream turbine partially in the wake of the upstream turbine depending on the detailed configuration of the turbines. Furthermore, one must balance the optimal torque fluctuation against the optimal power output.  相似文献   

CONTOUR DYNAMICS FOR THE MOTION OF MULTIPLE RING VORTICES^*          下载免费PDF全文

Luo Zhexian 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1995,9(1):69-77

This paper generalizes the contour dynamics for single ring vortices to that for multiple ring vortices, wherein six sets of numerical computation are performed. The phenomenon of the counterclockwise loop of a moving vortex is clearly shown in the computational results and the asymmetric change with time of the vortex structure may serve as a precursor for the phenomenon. Besides, we also discuss the dependence of the motion direction of a vortex upon the degree of its contour denseness, and the dependence of the westward component of vortex motion upon its asymmetric structure. The results are fairly consistent with those of previous dynamical analyses and numerical experiments.  相似文献