气象卫星遥感地表温度推算近地表气温方法研究   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

韩秀珍  李三妹  窦芳丽 《气象学报》2012,70(5):1107-1118

气温是各种植物生理、水文、气象、环境等模式或模型中的一个非常重要的近地表气象参数.多年来气温数据以离散的常规气象站点观测为主,连续分布的格点气温数据则以站点资料插值而得到,分辨率低,无法反映地形等下垫面因素对局地气温的影响,在农业气候区划等研究中具有一定的局限性.随着卫星遥感地表温度算法的日趋成熟,为探讨卫星遥感地表温度数据在气温观测中的可能性和可行性,利用全中国2340个站点1998 2007年的逐旬平均最高气温数据,以及相应时段的NOAA/AVHRR旬最高地表温度数据,以线性回归及拟合模型为主,通过考虑植被指数、土地覆盖类型、季节、风速、气压、降水等各类影响因子,建立了旬最高地表温度与旬平均最高气温间的推算模型,并利用未参与建模的2002-2003年的常规气象站点气温数据,同时与推算气温和插值气温结果进行对比分析.结果表明,利用卫星遥感地表温度数据推算的旬值气温数据可取得较高的精度,尤其在地形复杂地区以及站点稀疏地区精度明显高于插值气温结果.  相似文献   

雷击风险评估中L_o损失因子在多线路系统下的细化和改进     

植耀玲  冯民学  樊荣 《气象科学》2012,32(3):298-303

2008年推广施行的新国标GB/T 21714.2已广泛应用于各地雷击风险评估业务中。但在实际应用过程中人们也发现用其建立评估模型时,标准的一些简约化约定,使得其计算结果不够精准,特别是描述和处理也显得越来越困难,影响和制约了它的应用范围和前景。为此,本文针对带有多种电气和电子系统的复杂结构建筑,提出按其进线分布特点,对Lo损失因子取值方法进行改进(下文均称"Lo优化取值法"),为多线路进线建筑物的雷击风险管理提供更细化的依据和算法,并举例证实。结果表明:细化考虑不同线路的Lo对于建筑物雷击风险评估更为切近真实。  相似文献   

The Dynamical and Climate Tests of an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Using the Second-Order Adams-Bashforth Method          下载免费PDF全文

赵滨  钟青 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2009,23(6):738-749

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基于人工智能技术的热带气旋灾害评估方法研究:以广东省为例     

张文  赵珊珊  万仕全  封国林 《气候与环境研究》2018,23(4):504-512

基于历史观测资料,系统地研究了广东省热带气旋（tropical cyclone,TC）风雨及其带来的直接经济损失的空间分布特征。结果表明,粤西沿海地区受TC大风影响最为频繁,但TC经济灾损率和受灾频次在粤西和粤东较重。根据广东省TC风雨和直接经济损失的空间分布特征,将广东分为粤西、粤东、珠三角和粤北4个区域,进而利用演化建模方法建立了广东省各区域TC经济灾损率评估模型。该评估模型模拟的TC经济灾损率与实际值的相关系数达0.66以上,基于该模型对独立样本的预测检验结果与实际值的相关系数达到0.61以上（显著性水平a=0.05）。这表明,基于演化建模方法建立的广东省各区域评估模型在广东省TC灾害评估中有着潜在的应用价值。  相似文献   

FGOALS_gg1.1极地气候模拟   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

王秀成  刘骥平  俞永强  刘海龙  李立娟 《气象学报》2009,67(6)

对中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室发展的气候系统模式FGOALS_g1.1的极地气候模拟现状进行了较为全面的评估.结果表明,FGOALS_g1.1对南北极海冰的主要分布特征、季节变化和年代际变化趋势具有一定的模拟能力.但也注意到,与观测相比,模式存在以下几方面的问题:(1)模拟的海冰总面积北极偏多,而南极偏少.北极,北大西洋海冰全年明显偏多;夏季,西伯利亚沿海海冰偏多,而波弗特海海冰偏少.南极,威德尔海和罗斯海冬季海冰偏少.南北极海冰边缘都存在异常的较大范围密集度很小的碎冰区,夏季尤为显著.(2)海冰流速在南北极海冰边缘和南极大陆沿岸附近较大.北极,模式没能模拟出波弗特涡流,并且由于模式网格中北极点的处理问题,造成其附近错误的海冰流场及厚度分布.这些海冰偏差与模式模拟的大气和海洋状况有着密切的联系.进一步分析表明,FGOALS_g1.1模拟的冰岛低压和南极绕极西风带明显偏弱,其通过大气环流和海表面风应力影响向极地的热量输送,在很大程度上导致上述的海冰偏差.此外,耦合模式中大气-海冰-海洋的相互作用可以放大子模式中的偏差.  相似文献   

濮阳高新区洪灾城市经济损失评估   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李汉浸  王运行  张相梅  韩相斌  高志军  王建英  李丽平 《气象》2009,35(1):97-101

根据1995--2004年濮阳高新区气象和洪灾实况资料,分析了洪灾时空分布及城市经济损失特征.采用分等级、分资源类型的参数统计、回归分析和加权平均等方法,探讨了洪灾损失的评估步骤和技术方法,建立了城市洪灾损失的定量评估系统模型.选用2005--2006年濮阳高新区典型的洪灾事例验证该方法、模型的可行性,结果表明,洪灾损失评估定量计算结果与社会经济损失调查统计数据比较接近.结论认为:洪灾损失评估模型能够快速、准确地对洪灾损失作出定量评估,技术方法是可行、可操作的,为政府指挥防洪抗灾提供理论分析有一定的使用价值.  相似文献   

西北干旱区夏半年深厚的混合层与干旱气候形成   总被引：8，自引：3，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

李岩瑛  钱正安  薛新玲  兰晓波  李玲萍 《高原气象》2009,28(1):46-54

为了更好地理解西北干旱区大气混合层(ML)厚度的变化特征及其对当地干旱气候形成的影响,我们利用张掖和民勤站夏季及相关月的实测探空资料及T-log P图解法,首先计算了该两地逐日ML厚度,然后分析并讨论了它的时空间变化特征、与干湿天气气候的关系,以及夏半年的深厚ML,对加剧当地干旱气候的影响.结果表明:(1)河西中东部ML厚度的年变化及地区差异明显.冬季最浅薄,夏半年深厚(特别是5、6月),4月及10月分别是ML急剧增厚及变薄的过渡期;同时,更靠近西北干旱区中心的河西西部及北部的ML更深厚.(2)夏季干(湿)天气通过加强(减弱)地气间的感热交换和干对流,而明显影响当地的ML厚度.平均而言,以高温日最深厚,千日次之,小雨日再次之,而中强雨日最浅薄.千年夏季的ML厚度平均比湿年的对应值增厚300 m左右.夏季典型千日的ML厚度比雨日厚3000 m,典型干日的ML厚度昼宿变化不大.(3)反过来夏半年深厚的ML也通过增加雨滴蒸发损耗,减少了干旱区的降水,加剧了当地干旱的程度,因此夏半年深厚的ML也是形成干旱气候背景的成因之一.  相似文献   

Wind measurements in Mars' middle atmosphere: IRAM Plateau de Bure interferometric CO observations     

R. Moreno  E. Lellouch  T. Encrenaz  E. Millour 《Icarus》2009,201(2):549-563

The IRAM Plateau de Bure Interferometer has been used to map the CO(1-0) rotational line in Mars' middle atmosphere. Absolute winds and thermal profiles were retrieved during the 1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005 planet's oppositions. The observations sampled various seasons (Ls=143, 196, 262, 317 and 322), and different dust situations (clear, global storm, regional storm). The absolute winds were derived by measuring directly the Doppler lineshifts. The main zonal circulation near 50 km is dominated by strong retrograde winds, with typical velocities of 70-170 m/s, strongly varying seasonally, latitudinally, and longitudinally (in particular between morning and evening). Comparison of the retrieved temperature with a general circulation model indicates that the model often underestimates the temperatures in the middle (20-50 km) atmosphere, and overestimates them above 50 km.  相似文献   

Amazonian northern mid-latitude glaciation on Mars: A proposed climate scenario     

J.-B. Madeleine  F. Forget  B. Levrard  E. Millour 《Icarus》2009,203(2):390-405

Recent geological observations in the northern mid-latitudes of Mars show evidence for past glacial activity during the late Amazonian, similar to the integrated glacial landsystems in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica. The large accumulation of ice (many hundreds of meters) required to create the observed glacial deposits points to significant atmospheric precipitation, snow and ice accumulation, and glacial flow. In order to understand the climate scenario required for these conditions, we used the LMD (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique) Mars GCM (General Circulation Model), which is able to reproduce the present-day water cycle, and to predict past deposition of ice consistent with geological observations in many cases. Prior to this analysis, however, significant mid-latitude glaciation had not been simulated by the model, run under a range of parameters.In this analysis, we studied the response of the GCM to a wider range of orbital configurations and water ice reservoirs, and show that during periods of moderate obliquity (? = 25-35°) and high dust opacity (τ_dust = 1.5-2.5), broad-scale glaciation in the northern mid-latitudes occurs if water ice deposited on the flanks of the Tharsis volcanoes at higher obliquity is available for sublimation. We find that high dust contents of the atmosphere increase its water vapor holding capacity, thereby moving the saturation region to the northern mid-latitudes. Precipitation events are then controlled by topographic forcing of stationary planetary waves and transient weather systems, producing surface ice distribution and amounts that are consistent with the geological record. Ice accumulation rates of ∼10 mm yr⁻¹ lead to the formation of a 500-1000 m thick regional ice sheet that will produce glacial flow patterns consistent with the geological observations.  相似文献   

The jovian anticyclone BA: III. Aerosol properties and color change     

S. Pérez-Hoyos  A. Sánchez-Lavega  E. García-Melendo 《Icarus》2009,203(2):516-530

A study of the vertical cloud structure of oval BA and its red color change is presented in this third part of our complete analysis. A large interest in Jupiter’s anticyclone BA was created by its reddening that occurred between 2005 and 2006. In this work we quantify the color change in oval BA by using images taken with the Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS) onboard the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) in six filters from the near ultraviolet (F250W) to the deep methane band in the near infrared (F892N). Reflectivity changes are noteworthy in nadir viewing geometry at the ultraviolet and blue wavelengths (F250W, F330W and F435W filters) but almost undetectable or inside error bars in the rest of filters (F550M, F658N and F892N). The observed reflectivity variations are discussed in terms of a commonly accepted vertical cloud structure model for jovian anticyclones in order to explore some causes for the color alteration. Our models of the observed reflectivity variation show that the vortex clouds did not change its vertical extension (top pressure) or its optical depth. We find that a change occurred in the absorbing properties of the particles populating the upper aerosols (single scattering albedo and imaginary refractive index). A discussion on the thermo-physical and dynamical properties of the vortex that could be in the origin of the color change is also presented.  相似文献