历史地理视角下丝绸之路空间格局及影响研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

林小标  李娜  陆玉麒  周颖  李玉良 《地理研究》2022,41(11):3069-3087

已有的“一带一路”相关研究已逐步引起了学界对历史文化资源于今日发展影响的关注,然而作为“一带一路”倡议的历史依托和出发点,丝绸之路相关量化研究仍处于起步阶段。从文明的角度来说,如何认识丝绸之路是当代中国理解全球的关键。运用OLS、Logistic回归等手段,定量探讨了丝绸之路路线的形成动因以及其对历史及当代的影响。结果表明：① 丝绸之路道路密度分布总体处于波动状态,在以罗马、长安、大都为代表的交通网络起始点以及撒马尔罕、塔什干为代表的内线重要中转枢纽处密度数值大幅提高。② 作为商业贸易通道,丝绸之路路线选择影响最大的因素是地理因子,主要倾向于低坡度、高起伏度的地区,这一点在中亚复杂山地地形中表现得尤为明显。③ 丝绸之路的开辟与通畅,对当时社会经济、城市发展起到了显著的作用。丝绸之路道路密度同距最近海岸距离、纬度、历史文明指数等指标一道构成了古代城市分布的主要影响因素。④ 丝绸之路对区域经济发展的正面影响具有一定的持续性,其对今日经济的发展仍起着难以否认的支撑作用。丝绸之路道路密度每增加1%,所在区域夜间灯光指数增加0.373。本文通过横跨历史学、地理学、经济学的探索能够很好地提供差异化理论视角和技术手段助益,为相关研究的开展起到一定的参考与启发作用,同时也为“一带一路”相关理论的完善提供理论支撑与历史证明。  相似文献   

基于RIA和SOA的分布式WebGIS研究     

刘磊  韩立钦 《测绘标准化》2014,(3):21-24

基于当前流行的RIA平台和SOA体系,以分布式WebGIS为研究对象,探讨RIA/Services架构的分布式WebGIS开发方式,并以Silverlight和ArcGIS Server为平台阐述实践方案,开发的实验系统提高了WebGIS的表现力与交互性,同时降低了开发的复杂性、缩短了产品生产周期,具有一定的理论和现实意义。  相似文献   

The R Coronae Borealis Connection     

Geoffrey C. Clayton 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2002,279(1-2):167-170

The R Coronae Borealis (RCB) stars are rare hydrogen-deficient carbon-rich supergiants which undergo spectaculardeclines in brightness of up to 8 magnitudes at irregular intervals as dust forms along the line of sight.Understanding the RCB stars is a key test for any theory whichaims to explain hydrogen deficiency in post-Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) stars. There are two major evolutionary models for the origin of RCB stars: the Double Degenerate and the Final Helium ShellFlash. In the final flashmodel, there is a close relationship between RCB stars and Planetary Nebulae (PNe). The connection between RCB stars and PNe has recentlybecome stronger, since the central stars of three old PNe (Sakurai's Object, V605 Aql and FG Sge) have had observedoutbursts that transformed them from hot evolved central stars into cool giants with the spectral properties of an RCB star.  相似文献   

里下河地区极端降水时空变化及未来趋势分析     

鞠艳  杨星  王轶虹  王冬梅  齐斐  王志寰 《水文》2023,43(4)

随着全球变暖,极端天气事件逐渐增加,影响着社会经济发展,揭示区域极端降水时空变化对防洪减灾具有重要意义。基于1960—2019年的逐日降水,通过MK趋势检验、小波分析、重标极差以及克里金插值方法,从强度、频率和持续性三方面分析里下河地区的极端降水指数,并进一步探究其未来趋势变化。结果表明：（1）里下河地区多年平均降水为1017.25 mm,呈不显著增加趋势;空间分布差异明显,总体呈自西北向东南逐渐增加的分布。（2）研究区内各站点极端降水指数变化不同,总体而言,极端降水强度、频率均呈现增加趋势,持续性呈减少趋势。（3）极端降水指数变化过程中存在3类尺度的周期性变化,在整个时间尺度上存在3个偏多中心和2个偏少中心。（4）除R10mm和R20mm未来变化趋势与过去趋势相反且呈弱持续性,其他极端降水指数未来变化趋势与过去相一致,且过去总体趋势对未来趋势的影响时间长度在9~16年左右。研究结果为里下河地区科学合理应对气象灾害、合理配置水资源提供依据。  相似文献   

长短时记忆神经网络在中期地震预报中的探索--以川滇地区为例     

李林芳  石耀霖  程术 《地球物理学报》2022,65(1):12-25

利用机器学习方法对地震活动大数据进行挖掘,识别出一些过去认识不到的异常,提高地震预测的准确性,是一个非常具有挑战性的科学问题.本文基于川滇部分地区(24°N—32°N,98°E—106°E)地震目录,采用滑动的时空窗口,选取16个反映地震时空强度分布特征的地震预测因子,建立了长短时记忆(LSTM)神经网络,对研究区域9个子区块未来一年的最大地震震级进行预测.通过设置训练集∶测试集=8∶2和训练集∶测试集=7∶3两个不同的训练测试模型,对过往发生的地震进行了回溯性预报.结果表明:训练集∶测试集=7∶3模型能够利用1970年1月至2004年9月的地震目录进行学习,成功回溯性预报2008年汶川地震;训练集∶测试集=8∶2模型利用1970年1月至2009年5月资料进行训练,回溯性预报2010—2019年间6级以上地震的R评分为0.407,回溯性7级地震预报时准确率高达92.31%.本文还探讨性给出预测意见:2022年2月前研究区西部、中部、东部、西南部存在发生5.1~5.3级地震的潜在危险性.  相似文献   

Linking pesticides and human health: A geographic information system (GIS) and Landsat remote sensing method to estimate agricultural pesticide exposure     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2015

Accurate pesticide exposure estimation is integral to epidemiologic studies elucidating the role of pesticides in human health. Humans can be exposed to pesticides via residential proximity to agricultural pesticide applications (drift). We present an improved geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing method, the Landsat method, to estimate agricultural pesticide exposure through matching pesticide applications to crops classified from temporally concurrent Landsat satellite remote sensing images in California. The image classification method utilizes Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values in a combined maximum likelihood classification and per-field (using segments) approach. Pesticide exposure is estimated according to pesticide-treated crop fields intersecting 500 m buffers around geocoded locations (e.g., residences) in a GIS. Study results demonstrate that the Landsat method can improve GIS-based pesticide exposure estimation by matching more pesticide applications to crops (especially temporary crops) classified using temporally concurrent Landsat images compared to the standard method that relies on infrequently updated land use survey (LUS) crop data. The Landsat method can be used in epidemiologic studies to reconstruct past individual-level exposure to specific pesticides according to where individuals are located.  相似文献   

Fading of light maximum and linear polarization variation in the carbon Mira R Leporis     

A. V. Raveendran 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,336(3):992-998

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First‐order exchange coefficient coupling for simulating surface water–groundwater interactions: parameter sensitivity and consistency with a physics‐based approach     

Brian A. Ebel  Benjamin B. Mirus  Christopher S. Heppner  Joel E. VanderKwaak  Keith Loague 《水文研究》2009,23(13):1949-1959

Distributed hydrologic models capable of simulating fully‐coupled surface water and groundwater flow are increasingly used to examine problems in the hydrologic sciences. Several techniques are currently available to couple the surface and subsurface; the two most frequently employed approaches are first‐order exchange coefficients (a.k.a., the surface conductance method) and enforced continuity of pressure and flux at the surface‐subsurface boundary condition. The effort reported here examines the parameter sensitivity of simulated hydrologic response for the first‐order exchange coefficients at a well‐characterized field site using the fully coupled Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM). This investigation demonstrates that the first‐order exchange coefficients can be selected such that the simulated hydrologic response is insensitive to the parameter choice, while simulation time is considerably reduced. Alternatively, the ability to choose a first‐order exchange coefficient that intentionally decouples the surface and subsurface facilitates concept‐development simulations to examine real‐world situations where the surface‐subsurface exchange is impaired. While the parameters comprising the first‐order exchange coefficient cannot be directly estimated or measured, the insensitivity of the simulated flow system to these parameters (when chosen appropriately) combined with the ability to mimic actual physical processes suggests that the first‐order exchange coefficient approach can be consistent with a physics‐based framework. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessing the Vibrational Frequencies of the Holweide Hospital in the City of Cologne (Germany) by Means of Ambient Seismic Noise Analysis and FE modelling     

Stefano?ParolaiEmail author  Andreas?F?cke  Sandra?M.?Richwalski  Lothar?Stempniwski 《Natural Hazards》2005,34(2):217-230

Ambient seismic noise measurements were conducted inside the Holweide Hospital (Cologne) for checking whether its frequencies of vibration fall into the range where soil amplification is expected. If this is the case, damage might increase in case of an earthquake due to an amplified structural response of the building. Two different techniques were used: the ratio between the horizontal and vertical components of the spectra recorded at stations located inside the building and the ratio between the corresponding components of the spectra recorded simultaneously inside the building and at a reference station placed outside. While the former method might be preferred because of less equipment involved, the latter has the advantage of producing more stable results and deleting automatically the influence of the sedimentary cover, which might obscure some eigenfrequencies of vibration of the building. An independently performed finite-element analysis of the hospital showed a good correlation between measured and calculated eigenmodes.  相似文献   

《测绘法》适应性浅析     

阮于洲 《测绘与空间地理信息》2012,(3):219-220

分析了新时期测绘发展面临的新形势,对《中华人民共和国测绘法》规定的有关概念内涵、管理体制、运行机制、准入制度等的适应性进行了探讨,对进一步修订《中华人民共和国测绘法》提出了建议。  相似文献