2007-2019年山东省短时强降水时空分布特征          下载免费PDF全文

赵海军  曹洁  潘玲  王庆华  曹张驰  毛国荣 《海洋气象学报》2021,41(2):149-155

选用山东123个国家级地面气象观测站2007-2019年地面逐小时降水资料,分析短时强降水分布特征,主要结论如下:1)其间共有695个短时强降水日、3 337个短时强降水时次和6 257个短时强降水样本,基于排序法确定山东省极端短时强降水阈值为71.2 mm·h-1,鲁东南地区阈值最高,鲁中地区阈值最低.2)各站年均发...  相似文献   

我国东部极端降水时空分布及其概率特征   总被引：25，自引：9，他引：16  

蔡敏  丁裕国  江志红 《高原气象》2007,26(2):309-318

利用我国105°E以东地区210个测站近50年(1953—2002年)逐日降水资料,在REOF客观分区的基础上,确定各分区的极端降水最佳采样期为1~2日。进而研究了日极端降水量的气候特征。采用具有优良特性的L-矩参数估计方法对我国东部极端降水拟合Gumbel分布。结果表明,L-矩参数估计方法的拟合优度比其它方法有进一步提高,近50年来,极端降水趋势虽无明显变化,但其时空差异较大。符合Gumbel分布的极端降水重现期的地理空间分布,大致特征是,东南大、西北小,两湖盆地、黄海海湾及辽东半岛也有高值区。  相似文献   

极限波浪运动特性的非线性数值模拟   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

宁德志  滕斌  姜立明  臧军 《海洋学报》2008,30(3):126-132

利用时域高阶边界元方法建立了模拟极限波浪运动的完全非线性数值模型,其中自由水面满足完全非线性自由水面条件.采用半混合欧拉-拉格朗日方法追踪流体瞬时水面,运用四阶Runge-Kutta方法更新下一时间步的波面和速度势,同时应用镜像格林函数消除水槽两个侧面和底面上的积分.研究中利用波浪聚焦的方法产生极限波浪,并且在水槽中开展了物理模型实验,将测点试验数据与数值结果进行了对比,两者吻合得很好.对极限波浪运动的非线性和流域内速度分布进行了研究.  相似文献   

方向分布对三维聚焦波浪波面特性影响研究     

李金宣  柳淑学  孙一艳  HONG Keyyong 《海洋工程》2008,26(2):26-33

波浪聚焦被认为是产生极限波浪的重要机理之一,近年来受到普遍重视。通过高阶谱方法,引入造波边界建立数值计算模型,模拟聚焦波浪在不同方向分布时的产生和聚焦过程,研究波浪的方向分布对聚焦波浪的波面、波峰最大值、聚焦点的偏移、波面参数及频谱的影响。研究结果表明波浪方向分布越窄,波浪的非线性影响越强、波面越陡,波峰值、聚焦点的偏移和波面特征参数都越大;同时方向分布对波浪聚焦前后的能量具有很大的影响。  相似文献   

The Belt and Road: Geographical pattern and regional risks   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Wu  Shaohong  Liu  Lulu  Liu  Yanhua  Gao  Jiangbo  Dai  Erfu  Feng  Aiqing  Wang  Wentao 《地理学报(英文版)》2019,29(4):483-495

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Building the Belt and Road is initiatives of China to promote win-win international cooperation in the new era, aiming at green, health, intellect and peace and...  相似文献   

Predictability of Chinese Summer Extreme Rainfall Based on Arctic Sea Ice and Tropical Sea Surface Temperature     

ZHU Zhihui  HUANG Fei  XIE Xiao 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2019,(3):626-632

Chinese summer extreme rainfall often brings huge economic losses, so the prediction of summer extreme rainfall is necessary. This study focuses on the predictability of the leading mode of Chinese summer extreme rainfall from empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis. The predictors used in this study are Arctic sea ice concentration(ASIC) and regional sea surface temperature(SST) in selected optimal time periods. The most important role that Arctic sea ice(ASI) plays in the appearance of EOF1 may be strengthening the high pressure over North China, thereby preventing water vapor from going north. The contribution of SST is mainly at low latitudes and characterized by a significant cyclone anomaly over South China. The forecast models using predictor ASIC(PA), SST(PS), and the two together(PAS) are established by using data from 1980 to 2004. An independent forecast is made for the last 11 years(2005-2015). The correlation coefficient(COR) skills between the observed and cross-validation reforecast principal components(PC) of the PA, PS, and PAS models are 0.47, 0.66, and 0.76, respectively. These values indicate that SST is a major cause of Chinese summer extreme rainfall during 1980-2004. The COR skill of the PA model during the independent forecast period of 2004-2015 is 0.7, which is significantly higher than those of the PS and PAS models. Thus, the main factor influencing Chinese summer extreme rainfall in recent years has changed from low latitudes to high latitudes. The impact of ASI on Chinese summer extreme rainfall is becoming increasingly significant.  相似文献   

A density-based approach for detecting network-constrained clusters in spatial point events     

Min Deng  Xuexi Yang  Jianya Gong  Yang Liu  Huimin Liu 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(3):466-488

Existing spatial clustering methods primarily focus on points distributed in planar space. However, occurrence locations and background processes of most human mobility events within cities are constrained by the road network space. Here we describe a density-based clustering approach for objectively detecting clusters in network-constrained point events. First, the network-constrained Delaunay triangulation is constructed to facilitate the measurement of network distances between points. Then, a combination of network kernel density estimation and potential entropy is executed to determine the optimal neighbourhood size. Furthermore, all network-constrained events are tested under a null hypothesis to statistically identify core points with significantly high densities. Finally, spatial clusters can be formed by expanding from the identified core points. Experimental comparisons performed on the origin and destination points of taxis in Beijing demonstrate that the proposed method can ascertain network-constrained clusters precisely and significantly. The resulting time-dependent patterns of clusters will be informative for taxi route selections in the future.  相似文献   

Effects of wave directionality on extreme response for a long end-anchored floating bridge     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

Reliable design codes are of great importance when constructing new civil engineering concepts such as floating bridges. Previously only a scarce number of floating bridges have been built in rough wave conditions and only limited knowledge of the extreme environmental conditions and the associated extreme response exists. To form a better design basis an increased understanding of the sensitivity in the structural response towards changes in short-crested sea parameters is needed. Furthermore, acquiring the necessary accuracy in simulated extreme response is often a computationally expensive endeavour and the number of simulations needed is often based on experience. The present study investigates the wave-induced short-term extreme response of a simplified end-anchored floating bridge concept for several wave environments with a return period of 100 years. The study includes convergence of the coefficient of variation for the extreme response for different realization lengths as well as number of realizations. The sensitivity in the structural response towards different main wave directions and spreading exponents is investigated and includes both transverse and vertical displacement response spectra and extreme Von Mises stress in the bridge girder cross-section. The extreme response is based on an accuracy of 2% in the coefficient of variation equivalent to 40 3-h realizations and a low sensitivity in the response is found for natural occurring spreading exponents and for main wave directions within 15° from beam sea.  相似文献   

气候系统预测:基础创新和集成应用          下载免费PDF全文

王会军  戴永久  杨崧  李天明  罗京佳  尹志聪  段明铿  周放  张艺佳 《大气科学学报》2024,47(2):161-172

随着全球变暖,极端天气气候事件增强,天气气候灾害造成的损失也愈发严重。当前气候预测的准确性远远不能满足社会需要,气候系统预测理论和方法面临着众多挑战性问题。为提档气候预测科学水平和准确率,由南京信息工程大学和中山大学承担的“气候系统预测研究中心”获得国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目支持(2021年1月—2025年12月)。在该项目执行的前三年,项目团队开展了大量深入系统的研究,并取得了若干重要进展:1)揭示了气候系统的若干关键变化、驱动力和机制;2)剖析了海-陆-冰-气相互作用对我国重大极端气候事件的影响;3)在气候系统数值模式研发和预测系统集成方面取得重要进展;4)发展了延伸期-S2S-年代际的气候系统预测理论和方法。本文对这些进展作了扼要介绍,并针对气候与环境变化归因、古今气候环境研究融合、跨时空气候系统变异和极端气候、人工智能与气候科学、年代际预测和风险应对体系等关键科学问题做了展望。  相似文献   

1月北大西洋东部-乌拉尔山阻塞高压频次年际尺度偶极子模态特征          下载免费PDF全文

徐依梵  范可  徐志清 《大气科学学报》2023,46(6):837-847

基于观测和再分析资料,本文研究了近几十年来1月北大西洋东部-乌拉尔山阻塞高压频次年际变异主导模态特征及与其相联的大气背景场。结果表明,1980—2019年冬季(12月—次年2月)该地区阻塞高压频次年际变异的主导模态存在明显月际差异:12月表现为北大西洋东部-欧洲西部地区阻塞高压频次的显著同位相变化,1月为北大西洋东部-欧洲西部与乌拉尔山地区阻塞高压频次的具有显著的反位相变化即偶极子模态,2月则为北大西洋东部-乌拉尔山阻塞高压频次的显著同位相变化。进一步研究表明:1月北大西洋东部-乌拉尔山阻塞高压频次偶极子模态与同期局地纬向西风、纬向风垂直切变、经向位涡梯度等大气背景场异常偶极型变化相联系。当乌拉尔山地区关键大气背景场为负异常,而北大西洋东部-欧洲西部为正异常时,两个地区阻塞高压频次分别增加和减少,呈现偶极子模态;反之亦然。阻塞高压频次偶极子模态及相关的背景环流异常可通过调节水平温度平流、垂直运动和水汽输送等来影响1月欧亚北部气温和降水,以及它们的极端事件频次。当阻塞高压频次偶极子模态处于正位相时,乌拉尔山北部(南部)和欧洲南部增温(降温),极端暖、冷事件频次分别增加(减少)和减少(增加...  相似文献