Global Freshwater Storage Capability across Time Scales in the GRACE Satellite Era     

Enda ZHU  Xing YUAN 《大气科学进展》2021,38(6):905-917

Freshwater is recharged mainly by rainfall and stored inland for a period of time, which is directly affected by its storage capability. The storage capability of river basins has different spatiotemporal features that are important for the predictability of freshwater resources. However, the estimation of freshwater storage capability(FSC) remains a challenge due to the lack of observations and quantification indices. Here, we use a metric that characterizes hydrological "inertia"after rainfalls to analyze FSC over the 194 largest global major river basins based on satellite observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE) and simulations from the Community Land Model version 5(CLM5). During2003–16, the global land was observed to retain 28% of precipitation after one month based on GRACE observations, and the simulation depicts that the retained proportions decrease from 42% after one day to 26% after one month, with smaller FSC partly attributed to wetter conditions and higher vegetation densities. The root zone contributes about 40% to the global land FSC on daily to monthly time scales. As the time scale increases, the contribution from the surface soil decreases from 26% to 14%, while the contribution from the deep soil increases from 4% to 10%. Snow contributes over20% of land FSC, especially over high latitudes. With six decades of CLM5 long-term simulations, it is revealed that the change of FSC in most basins is related to internal climate variability. The FSC of river basins which displays the proportion of precipitation retained on land is worthy of further attention regarding the predictability of water resources.  相似文献   

Understanding subsurface geological and geotechnical complexity at various scales in urban soils using a 3D model     

《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2013,7(4):192-205

The construction of a three-dimensional (3D) geological model to the scale of a city (greater Bordeaux area, France) has been undertaken, using several thousand boreholes and several hundred geotechnical tests on a more limited area. Data from some specific geographical areas have also been analysed for the purposes of professional applications related to geotechnical engineering, urban archaeology and asset management of buried networks. This paper focuses on the geotechnical dimensions, uncertainties and associated hazards. First, a geometrical model of the quaternary layer basis was built to the scale of the city, the variogram of which quantifies and models the anisotropic spatial correlation of this layer. Two specific studies were then made, as described in the following:

• modelling of the stratigraphy, to the scale of the city, in order to assess the depth and extent of the Flandrian formations. The thickness of these formations is directly linked to the staircase terraces of the Garonne river.

• on-site site analysis of an area where an infrastructure has suffered damage, resulting from large differential settlements, owing to its poor geotechnical properties. We show how geostatistical methods applied to in-situ or laboratory parameters can improve knowledge and understanding of the site, and can be useful in improving the settlement predictions which had been initially underestimated.

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Reliability of shallow foundations designed to Eurocode 7     

《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2013,7(4):186-207

Eurocode 7, the new European standard for geotechnical design, is based on the limit state design method, with partial factors and characteristic parameter values. An objective of the Eurocodes is that the chosen partial factors should achieve reliability levels for a structure close to a prescribed target value. The target ultimate limit state reliability index for a medium risk structure for 50 years is 3.8. This paper examines the reliability of an inclined-eccentrically and vertically loaded square foundation designed using all three Design Approaches in Eurocode 7 with the recommended partial factor values given in EN1997-1. The reliabilities obtained using the three Design Approaches are compared with the target reliability value and the reliabilities of traditional designs using overall factors of safety. The paper provides evidence that Eurocode 7 gives more consistent reliabilities for a greater range of parameter values than the traditional allowable stress method and demonstrates the importance of selecting appropriate characteristic values.  相似文献   

中低纬海气相互作用的耦合型态及其年代际振荡特征研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

朱艳峰  丁裕国  何金海 《热带气象学报》2002,18(2):139-147

采用北半球500hPa高度场和北太平洋海温场月平均资料（1951－1995），借助于SVD分析方法，对北太平洋地区海气相互作用的耦合型态的季节及其年代际变化特征作诊断分析。结果表明：（1）在大气－海洋相互作用过程中，与厄尔尼诺（或拉尼娜）事件有关的SST分布型起着重要作用，而与此耦合的大气则表现为类似于PNA型遥相关的变化。其中冬季（1月）海气相互作作用的耦合程度较高，具体为厄尔尼诺事件对应着高度场的PNA流型。而与拉尼娜相对应的夏季500hPa高度场类似于东亚－太平洋（PJ）流型，但在4个季节中，夏季的海气相关耦合程度相对较差。春秋季同属于过渡季节，秋季海气之间的相关耦合不及春季紧密。（2）1976年前后海气耦合分布型态发生明显变化，冬季500hPa高度场PNA流型加强，阿留申低压加深并向东南移动，1976年后的夏季500hPa高度场的PJ流型表现明显，而1976年前这个遥相关型并不显著。  相似文献   

南海-热带东印度洋海温异常对南海夏季风影响的数值试验   总被引：5，自引：7，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

赵永平  吴爱明 《热带气象学报》2003,19(1):27-35

利用NCEP／NCAR数据集中1979-1996年3—7月500hPa位势高度场资料，经过候平均整理后，自己定义副高强度、西脊点和脊线，然后对它们进行各种距平处理、小波变换和EOF分析，发现3—7月内副高季节内变化主要表现为三次突变过程，在时间上分别对应着南海季风爆发、江南梅雨发生和梅雨结束，同时，在这段时间内副高活动的年际变化主要有4年左右和8年左右的周期。  相似文献   

东北冷涡及其气候影响   总被引：8，自引：8，他引：8  

胡开喜  陆日宇  王东海 《大气科学》2011,35(1):179-191

基于自动识别、追踪方法得到的近50年东北冷涡数据集, 本文研究了东北冷涡的年际变率及演变趋势, 并分析了其持续性活动对我国气候的影响及相关联的大尺度环流异常特征。结果表明, 东北冷涡具有很明显的年际变率, 且存在2.5年左右的主振荡周期, 但没有显著的长期变化趋势。东北局地在持续性冷涡控制下, 四季气温均明显偏低, 并在春季和夏季能造成局部降水偏多。在东北冷涡活跃的夏季, 长江流域往往降水显著偏多; 而在冬季东北冷涡频繁活动时, 我国大部分地区往往低温少雨, 这与强盛的东亚冬季风密切相关。研究结果表明, 冬季东北冷涡活动和东亚冬季风强度之间的相关系数达到99%的信度水平。在东北冷涡活跃的夏季, 东亚地区对流层维持着深厚的偶极型位势高度异常, 高空急流向南偏移并略加强, 低层西北太平洋反气旋异常和中纬度地区的东风异常有助于局地的水汽通量的辐合, 进而有利于降水的偏多。  相似文献   

热带太平洋次表层海温异常年代际变率及其对中国气候异常的影响   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

陈永利  赵永平  王凡  冯俊乔 《热带气象学报》2011,27(6):785-796

利用近50年月平均的SODA海洋同化资料和NCEP大气再分析资料,研究了热带太平洋次表层海温异常(SOTA)年代际变率主要分布型以及与之相关的亚洲-北太平洋-北美地区上空异常大气环流场,并揭示了类ENSO模态与中国气候异常之间的联系.得到主要结果:(1)热带太平洋SOTA年代际变率有两种类ENSO模态.第一模为类ENSO事件成熟期热带太平洋年代际SOTA状态；第二模为类ENSO过渡期热带太平洋年代际SOTA状态.二者组合构成类ENSO事件40年左右及其背景下13年左右的周期振荡.(2)类ENSO事件对亚洲-北太平洋-北美上空中高纬和副热带大气系统年代际变化具有重要影响.类El Ni(n)o成熟期间冬季,中高纬地区大气环流经向型发展,贝加尔湖高压脊加强,西太平洋副高偏强、位置偏西,蒙古高原为较强的异常反气旋环流.类El Ni(n)o衰退期(类La Ni(n)a发展期)夏季,贝加尔湖低压槽加深,乌拉尔山高压脊加强,西太平洋副高偏弱,新疆-河套地区为较强的异常反气旋环流距平.类La Ni(n)a事件时相反.(3)热带太平洋类ENSO事件通过影响中高纬和副热带大气系统,造成中国北部地区上空南风距平的年代际变化,进而导致东亚季风和中国气候异常.类El Ni(n)o事件成熟期,中国北部地区上空多异常偏北风,东亚季风弱,华北少雨,长江中、下游多雨；类El Ni(n)o衰退(类La Ni(n)a发展)期,中国北部地区上空亦为异常偏北气流,东亚季风较弱,华北少雨.中国气候异常型主要取决于类ENSO第一模态,而第二模态主要视位相异同来加强或减弱第一模态.两个类ENSO模态的共同作用导致1978年前后中国气候跃变和华北地区持续20余年的干旱.近期类ENSO模的振荡从1998年左右开始转为类La Ni(n)a模态,大致在2018年左右结束.在此期间,华北降水有望增加,长江中、下游降水可能减少.  相似文献   

东亚夏季风南北进退的年代际变化对我国区域降水的影响   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3  

吕心艳  张秀芝  陈锦年 《热带气象学报》2011,27(6):860-868

利用1958-2001年的中国740站逐日降水资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF) ERA40再分析资料,综合动力因子和热力因子定义了东亚夏季风指数,并利用该指数的变化定义了东亚夏季风前沿,客观、详尽地描述了季风的移动特征.结果表明,在1958-2001年期间,东亚夏季风活动在1965、1980和1994年出现3次明显转变.1958-1964年东亚夏季风前沿在华南和华北地区停留时间异常偏长,而在长江中下游地区停留时间异常偏短；1965-1979年季风前沿在华南和黄河下游地区停留时间稍长；1980-1993年季风前沿集中在长江中下游地区时间异常偏长,而在华北地区停留时间异常偏短；1994-2001年东亚夏季风在长江以南停留时间偏长,从而导致了我国东部区域降水的异常分布、旱涝灾害频繁发生.  相似文献   

Analysing individual recession events: sensitivity of parameter determination to the calculation procedure     

Bo Chen  Witold Krajewski 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(16):2887-2901

ABSTRACT

This study assesses the sensitivity to model fitting methods and segment selection of the estimated parameters A and B of the model dQ/dt = ?AQ^B for individual events. We investigated about 750 recession events observed at 25 US Geological Survey gauges in the Iowa and Cedar river basins in the United States, with drainage areas ranging from 7 to 17 000 km². The parameters of these recession events were estimated using three commonly adopted methods and recession segments with different extraction criteria. The results showed that the variations of the parameter estimates for the same recession event were comparable to the variations of parameters between different events due to using different model fitting methods and recession segments. This raises cautions for comparative analysis of individual recessions. The result also implies that the nonlinear direct fitting method is the most robust among the three model fitting methods compared.