Extreme value modelling of daily areal rainfall over Mediterranean catchments in a changing climate     

Yves Tramblay  Luc Neppel  Julie Carreau  Emilia Sanchez‐Gomez 《水文研究》2012,26(25):3934-3944

Heavy rainfall events during the fall season are causing extended damages in Mediterranean catchments. A peaks‐over‐threshold model is developed for the extreme daily areal rainfall occurrence and magnitude in fall over six catchments in Southern France. The main driver of the heavy rainfall events observed in this region is the humidity flux (FHUM) from the Mediterranean Sea. Reanalysis data are used to compute the daily FHUM during the period 1958–2008, to be included as a covariate in the model parameters. Results indicate that the introduction of FHUM as a covariate can improve the modelling of extreme areal precipitation. The seasonal average of FHUM can improve the modelling of the seasonal occurrences of heavy rainfall events, whereas daily FHUM values can improve the modelling of the events magnitudes. In addition, an ensemble of simulations produced by five different general circulation models are considered to compute FHUM in future climate with the emission scenario A1B and hence to evaluate the effect of climate change on the heavy rainfall distribution in the selected catchments. This ensemble of climate models allows the evaluation of the uncertainties in climate projections. By comparison to the reference period 1960–1990, all models project an amplification of the mean seasonal FHUM from the Mediterranean Sea for the projection period 2070–2099, on average by +22%. This increase in FHUM leads to an increase in the number of heavy rainfall events, from an average of 2.55 events during the fall season in present climate to 3.57 events projected for the period 2070–2099. However, the projected changes have limited effects on the magnitude of extreme events, with only a 5% increase in the median of the 100‐year quantiles. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Analysis of flood propagation changes in the Kienstock—Bratislava reach of the Danube River/Analyse des changements de propagation des crues dans le tronçon Kienstock—Bratislava du Fleuve Danube     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4)

Abstract

In the first part of this study, a flood wave transformation analysis for the largest historical floods in the Danube River reach Kienstock–Bratislava was carried out. For the simulation of the historical (1899 and 1954) flood propagation, the nonlinear river model NLN-Danube (calibrated on the recent river reach conditions) was used. It was shown that the simulated peak discharges were not changed significantly when compared to their historical counterparts. However, the simulated hydrographs exhibit a significant acceleration of the flood wave movement at discharges of between 5000 and 9000 m³ s^-1. In the second part, the travel time-water level relationships between Kienstock and Bratislava were analysed on a dataset of the flood peak water levels for the period 1991–2002. An empirical regression routing scheme for the Danube short-term water level forecast at Bratislava station was derived. This is based on the measured water level at Kienstock gauging station.  相似文献   

A new model for the vibration isolation via pile rows consisting of infinite number of piles     

Jian‐Fei Lu  Dong‐Sheng Jeng  Jian‐Wei Wan  Ji‐Sheng Zhang 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(15):2394-2426

In this study, on the basis of the Floquet transform method, a numerical model for the simulation of the vibration isolation via multiple periodic pile rows with infinite number of piles is established. By means of the fictitious pile method due to Muki and Sternberg, the second kind of Fredholm integral equations for the pile rows are developed by using the fundamental solutions for the half‐space and the compatibility conditions between the piles and half‐space. Employing the Floquet transform method, integral equations for the pile rows in the wavenumber domain are then derived. Solution of the integral equations yields the wavenumber domain solution for the pile rows. The space domain solution can then be retrieved by inversion of the Floquet transform. Numerical results show that the proposed model with the Floquet transform method is in a good agreement with those of the conventional direct superposition method. On the basis of the new model, influences of the spacing between neighboring piles, the Young's modulus of the piles, and the pile length on the vibration isolation effect of the pile rows are investigated. Numerical simulations conducted in this study show that compared with the direct superposition method, the efficiency of the proposed model for simulation of the vibration isolation via pile rows is very high. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The manifolds of families of 3D periodic orbits associated to Sitnikov motions in the restricted three-body problem     

E. A. Perdios 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2007,99(2):85-104

This paper deals with the Sitnikov family of straight-line motions of the circular restricted three-body problem, viewed as generator of families of three-dimensional periodic orbits. We study the linear stability of the family, determine several new critical orbits at which families of three dimensional periodic orbits of the same or double period bifurcate and present an extensive numerical exploration of the bifurcating families. In the case of the same period bifurcations, 44 families are determined. All these families are computed for equal as well as for nearly equal primaries (μ = 0.5, μ = 0.4995). Some of the bifurcating families are determined for all values of the mass parameter μ for which they exist. Examples of families of three dimensional periodic orbits bifurcating from the Sitnikov family at double period bifurcations are also given. These are the only families of three-dimensional periodic orbits presented in the paper which do not terminate with coplanar orbits and some of them contain stable parts. By contrast, all families bifurcating at single-period bifurcations consist entirely of unstable orbits and terminate with coplanar orbits.  相似文献   

Spectroscopic binaries near the north Galactic Pole     

R. F. Griffin  D. W. Beggs 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》1991,12(4):289-310

Orbits based principally on radial-velocity measurements made with the Haute-Provence Coravel spectrometer are presented for eight binary systems which include some of the faintest HD stars in the Galactic-Pole field. They are HD 103418 (which is double-lined), 105021, 108151, 113169, 113323, 113650, 113714, and 116514. Their periods range from 3.7 to 15.1 days. Very little else is known about any of them.  相似文献   

Transfers between libration-point orbits in the elliptic restricted problem     

L. A. Hiday-Johnston  K. C. Howell 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1994,58(4):317-337

A strategy is formulated to design optimal time-fixed impulsive transfers between three-dimensional libration-point orbits in the vicinity of the interiorL ₁ libration point of the Sun-Earth/Moon barycenter system. The adjoint equation in terms of rotating coordinates in the elliptic restricted three-body problem is shown to be of a distinctly different form from that obtained in the analysis of trajectories in the two-body problem. Also, the necessary conditions for a time-fixed two-impulse transfer to be optimal are stated in terms of the primer vector. Primer vector theory is then extended to non-optimal impulsive trajectories in order to establish a criterion whereby the addition of an interior impulse reduces total fuel expenditure. The necessary conditions for the local optimality of a transfer containing additional impulses are satisfied by requiring continuity of the Hamiltonian and the derivative of the primer vector at all interior impulses. Determination of the location, orientation, and magnitude of each additional impulse is accomplished by the unconstrained minimization of the cost function using a multivariable search method. Results indicate that substantial savings in fuel can be achieved by the addition of interior impulsive maneuvers on transfers between libration-point orbits.An earlier version was presented as Paper AAS 92–126 at the AAS/AIAA Spaceflight Mechanics Meeting, Colorado Springs, Colorado, February 24–26, 1992.  相似文献   

Periodic orbits of the planar collision restricted 3-body problem     

Jaume Llibre  Daniel Paşca 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2006,96(1):19-29

Using the continuation method we prove that the circular and the elliptic symmetric periodic orbits of the planar rotating Kepler problem can be continued into periodic orbits of the planar collision restricted 3-body problem. Additionally, we also continue to this restricted problem the so called “comet orbits”. An erratum to this article can be found at  相似文献   

Spectroscopy and orbit determination of the chromospherically active double-lined binary system HD 163621 = V835 Herculis     

R. F. Griffin  F. C. Fekel  M. D. Morton  R. E. Fried 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》1994,15(3):309-319

HD 163621 is a double-lined spectroscopic binary in a circular orbit whose period is 3.3 days. Spectral classification of the components has proved difficult, but current results of K0 V and late K V are reasonably consistent with our best model of the system, which has spectral types of G8V and K7V. The object shows photometric variability and chromospheric activity and is therefore a member of the BY Draconis class of variables. The minimum masses are quite small, 0.10 and 0.07 M⊙ for the primary and secondary, respectively, suggesting an orbital inclination of about 30°. The system is synchronously rotating. Its distance is estimated to be 31 pc, which makes it an excellent candidate for a trigonometric parallax determination. Kitt Peak National Observatory, [U.S.] National Optical Astronomy Observatories, operated by AURA Inc. under contract with the [U.S.] National Science Foundation.  相似文献   

A search for a problem free cosmology     

Daksh Lohiya 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》1997,18(4):389-392

We explore features of a nonminimally coupled theory of scalar fields with an effective potential that supports non topological soliton solutions. It is suggested that a problem free cosmology results.  相似文献   

Microcracks and Overpressure- Induced Fractures     

Ahmed M.Al-QAHTANI 《世界地质(英文版)》2001,4(2)

The microfractures and natural fractures studies have a great significance in the hydrocarbon accumulation exploration and can be a good supporter for wide geophysical study on the major structures. This paper is a brief review on microcracks and overpressure- induced fracture. It is to discuss different views on the mechanism of fractures in the subsurface of the earth.  相似文献