Rainfall–runoff trends in the south‐eastern USA: 1938–2005     

Seth Rose 《水文研究》2009,23(8):1105-1118

An extensive dataset (230 precipitation gauges and 79 stream gauges) was used to analyse rainfall–runoff relationships in 10 subregions of a 482000 km² area in the south‐eastern USA (Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia). The average annual rainfall and runoff for this study area between 1938 and 2005 were 1201 and 439 mm, respectively. Average runoff/rainfall ratios during this period varied between 0·24 in the southernmost Coastal Plain subregion to 0·64 in the Blue Ridge Province. Watershed elevation and relief are the principal determinants governing the conversion of rainfall to runoff. Temporal rainfall variation throughout the south‐eastern USA ranges from ～40% above and below normal while the variation for runoff is higher, from ? 75% to + 100%. In any given year there can exist a ± 25–50% error in predicted runoff deviation using the annual rainfall–runoff regression. Fast Fourier Transform and autoregressive spectral analysis revealed dominant cyclicities for rainfall and runoff between 14 and 17 years. Secondary periodicities were typically between 6–7 and 10–12 years. The inferred cyclicity may be related to ENSO and/or Central North Pacific atmospheric phenomena. Mann–Kendall analyses indicate that there were no consistent statistically significant temporal trends with respect to south‐eastern US rainfall and runoff during the study period. The results of U‐tests similarly indicated that rainfall between 1996 and 2005 was not statistically higher or lower than during earlier in the study period. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A numerical method for the study of shear band propagation in soft rocks     

Marta Castelli  Andrea Allodi  Claudio Scavia 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2009,33(13):1561-1587

This paper investigates the possibility of interpreting progressive shear failure in hard soils and soft rocks as the result of shear propagation of a pre‐existing natural defect. This is done through the application of the principles of fracture mechanics, a slip‐weakening model (SWM) being used to simulate the non‐linear zone at the tips of the discontinuity. A numerical implementation of the SWM in a computation method based on the boundary element technique of the displacement discontinuity method (DDM) is presented. The crack and the non‐linear zone at the advancing tip are represented through a set of elements, where the displacement discontinuity (DD) in the tangential direction is determined on the basis of a friction law. A residual friction angle is assumed on the crack elements. Shear resistance decreases on elements in the non‐linear zone from a peak value at the tip, which is characteristic of intact material, to the residual value. The simulation of a uniaxial compressive test in plane strain conditions is carried out to exemplify the numerical methodology. The results emphasize the role played by the critical DD on the mechanical behaviour of the specimen. A validation of the model is shown through the back analysis of some experimental observations. The results of this back analysis show that a non‐linear fracture mechanics approach seems very promising to simulate experimental results, in particular with regards to the shear band evolution pattern. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

一种改进的TSI3563积分浊度误差校正方法          下载免费PDF全文

马楠  周秀骥  颜鹏  赵春生 《应用气象学报》2015,26(1):12-21

TSI3563型积分式浊度计是一种性能出色的气溶胶散射系数观测仪器,然而由于仪器设计所固有的限制,TSI3563型浊度计观测结果包含有角度截断和非朗伯体光源两项系统性误差,会使观测结果较真值偏小10%左右。因此,需要对TSI3563型浊度计的观测结果进行校正才能得到较为精确的散射系数观测值。该研究利用2009年华北平原HaChi气溶胶外场观测数据测试了现有校正方法,结果显示,传统的校正方法在我国华北平原这样的高气溶胶污染地区并不适用。为此,提出一种改进的校正方法,利用同时观测的PM₁和PM₁₀数据,在校正方案中加入超微米粒子体积比这一参量,对于不同体积比采用不同的校正函数。利用实际观测数据检验后发现,改进方法的校正效果相对于传统方法有很大改善。  相似文献   

Dynamics of two satellites in the 2/1 Mean–Motion resonance: application to the case of Enceladus and Dione     

N. CallegariJr.  T. Yokoyama 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2007,98(1):5-30

The dynamics of a pair of satellites similar to Enceladus–Dione is investigated with a two-degrees-of-freedom model written in the domain of the planar general three-body problem. Using surfaces of section and spectral analysis methods, we study the phase space of the system in terms of several parameters, including the most recent data. A detailed study of the main possible regimes of motion is presented, and in particular we show that, besides the two separated resonances, the phase space is replete of secondary resonances.  相似文献   

变渗透系数软土一维非线性固结沉降数值模拟     

王俊  雷宏武  徐芬  王静 《地下水》2010,32(2):155-157

固结沉降计算是工程建筑中的重要内容之一。传统的固结沉降计算多是基于渗透数为常数的Terzaghi模型,这与实际的固结过程有较大的差别。采用Carman—Koze模型与一维非线性固结沉降模型进行耦合来模拟固结沉降过程。结果表明,固结导致的渗透系数的变化对固结有较大的影响,特别是在后期这种影响会越来越大。  相似文献   

基于分层EOF的深海声速剖面时变特征建模          下载免费PDF全文

张林虎  刘杨  刘焱雄  陈冠旭  李梦昊 《海岸工程》2022,41(3):209-222

针对目前局部海域小时间尺度声速场建模方法未顾及不同深度区间内声速变化规律的问题,本文根据实测深海声速剖面的统计特征,提出了声速剖面分层方法,并进一步基于经验正交函数（Empirical Orthogonal Function, EOF）提出了局部小时间尺度的声速剖面分层时变模型构建方法。利用南海实测全海深声速剖面数据,分析了分层EOF第一模态系数和等效平均声速的日变化特征,并比较了不同拟合模型的精度。最后,利用试验海区的温度和潮汐数据分析了声速剖面周期变化的影响因素。结果表明： ①声速剖面分层EOF第一模态系数及等效平均声速具有日周期变化特征,上层声速日周期变化特征不明显,中层声速日周期变化特征较明显,下层声速变化较小但仍具有日周期变化特征;②局部海域小时间尺度声速拟合应考虑长期变化项的影响;③试验海区声速剖面EOF第一模态系数变化与温度显著相关,提取的声速剖面时变特征与海区潮汐周期特征基本吻合。  相似文献   

利用稀少卫星影像控制点生产1:10 000 DOM——以阿拉善盟测区为例     

逯中香  樊彦国  李国胜 《测绘通报》2022,(3):138-142+156

青藏铁路沿线地表受多年冻土的影响会产生抬升和沉降,形变监测对于其安全运行至关重要。本文采用41景C波段Sentinel-1A升轨数据,结合均匀网格划分子区域的方法,探测分布相对均匀的永久散射体,以作为SBAS InSAR技术的地面控制点,对青藏线羊八井站至乌玛塘站段铁路及其沿线地表进行形变监测。试验结果表明,该段铁路年形变速率范围为-8~2 mm/a,该区域形变受周围冻土的影响随季节呈周期性变化;SBAS InSAR技术和本文的PS-SBAS InSAR技术在同名点形变趋势与形变程度方面的对比结果保持一致性,进一步说明了本文方法的可靠性。  相似文献   

Discrete element modelling of material non‐coaxiality in simple shear flows     

Jun Ai  Paul A. Langston  Hai‐Sui Yu 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2014,38(6):615-635

We investigate the quasi‐static simple shear flow of a two‐dimensional assembly of cohesionless particles using discrete element method (DEM) simulations. We focus on the unsteady flow regime where the solid would experience significant evolution of stresses, mobilised shear strength and dilation. We construct the DEM model using a discretised‐wall confined granular cell where the apparent boundary is allowed to dilate or contract synchronously with the confined solid. A rather uniform simple shear field is achieved across the whole assembly, which benefits rheological studies in generalising constitutive laws for continuum methods. We examine two aspects of the simple shear behaviour: macroscopic stress and strain rate evolution, particularly the non‐coaxiality between the principal directions of the two; and micromechanics such as evolution of fabric. For an initially anisotropic specimen sheared under constant normal pressure, the direction of principal stress rotates towards that of the principal strain rate, gradually reducing the degree of non‐coaxiality from about 45° to fluctuating around 0°. The rate in approaching coaxiality is slower in samples with larger initial porosity, stress ratio and mean stress. Generally, a faster rate in approaching coaxiality in simple shear is observed in a more dilatant sample, which often shows a larger degree of mobilised fabric anisotropy, suggesting the possible important role of instantaneous internal friction angle. The evolution of principal fabric direction resembles that of the principal stress direction. © 2013 The Authors. International Journal for Numerical and Analytical Methods in Geomechanics published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Approximate analytical and numerical solutions for radial non‐Darcian flow to a well in a leaky aquifer with wellbore storage and skin effect     

Zhang Wen  Quanrong Wang 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(11):1453-1469

This study investigated non‐Darcian flow to a well in a leaky aquifer considering wellbore storage and a finite‐thickness skin. The non‐Darcian flow is described by the Izbash equation. We have used a linearization procedure associated with the Laplace transform to solve such a non‐Darcian flow model. Besides, the Stehfest method has been used to invert the Laplace domain solutions for the drawdowns. We further analyzed the drawdowns inside the well for different cases. The results indicated that a smaller B_D results in a smaller drawdown at late times and the leakage has little effect on the drawdown inside the well at early times, where B_D is a dimensionless parameter reflecting the leakage. We have also found that the flow for the negative skin case approaches the steady‐state earlier than that for the positive skin. In addition, the drawdown inside the well with a positive skin is larger than that without skin effect at late times, and a larger thickness of the skin results in a greater drawdown inside the well at late times for the positive skin case. A reverse result has been found for the negative skin case. Finally, we have developed a finite‐difference solution for such a non‐Darcian flow model and compared the numerical solution with the approximate analytical solution. It has been shown that the linearization procedure works very well for such a non‐Darcian flow model at late times, and it underestimates the drawdowns at early times. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Extreme value modelling of daily areal rainfall over Mediterranean catchments in a changing climate     

Yves Tramblay  Luc Neppel  Julie Carreau  Emilia Sanchez‐Gomez 《水文研究》2012,26(25):3934-3944

Heavy rainfall events during the fall season are causing extended damages in Mediterranean catchments. A peaks‐over‐threshold model is developed for the extreme daily areal rainfall occurrence and magnitude in fall over six catchments in Southern France. The main driver of the heavy rainfall events observed in this region is the humidity flux (FHUM) from the Mediterranean Sea. Reanalysis data are used to compute the daily FHUM during the period 1958–2008, to be included as a covariate in the model parameters. Results indicate that the introduction of FHUM as a covariate can improve the modelling of extreme areal precipitation. The seasonal average of FHUM can improve the modelling of the seasonal occurrences of heavy rainfall events, whereas daily FHUM values can improve the modelling of the events magnitudes. In addition, an ensemble of simulations produced by five different general circulation models are considered to compute FHUM in future climate with the emission scenario A1B and hence to evaluate the effect of climate change on the heavy rainfall distribution in the selected catchments. This ensemble of climate models allows the evaluation of the uncertainties in climate projections. By comparison to the reference period 1960–1990, all models project an amplification of the mean seasonal FHUM from the Mediterranean Sea for the projection period 2070–2099, on average by +22%. This increase in FHUM leads to an increase in the number of heavy rainfall events, from an average of 2.55 events during the fall season in present climate to 3.57 events projected for the period 2070–2099. However, the projected changes have limited effects on the magnitude of extreme events, with only a 5% increase in the median of the 100‐year quantiles. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献