南海夏季风爆发日期和强度的短期气候预测方法研究   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7  

何敏  许力  宋文玲 《气象》2002,28(10):9-14

利用合成及相关统计方法，研究冬季南海季风指数与850hPa风场、500hPa高度、海表温度、OLR等环境场的相互关系及其影响南海夏季风活动的可能机制。指出冬季南海季风指数及环境场的异常特征可以作为预测南海夏季风活动的前兆信号。在此基础上建立了预测南海夏季风爆发日期和强度的概念模型，1998－2001年的预测试验取得了较好成绩。  相似文献   

一个大羊环流模式中赤道西太平洋暖池海面温度对西风爆发的响应          下载免费PDF全文

刘海龙  李薇  张学洪  俞永强 《大气科学》2002,26(2):171-184

用逐日的欧洲中期数值预报中心再分析(ERA)风应力,和由Haney公式结合ERA海表资料与预报海温计算出的热通量强迫一个全球大洋环流模式.并用逐日的模拟结果与TOGA-COARE(Tropical Ocean--Global Atmosphere--Coupled Ocean-AtmosphereResponse Experiment)浮标观测资料对比,分析模拟结果中暖池海区上层海洋热量平衡对西风爆发(WWB)的响应.在第一次WWB过程中,模拟与观测的主要差异在WWB期间,而造成差异的原因主要是模式中由下沉运动引起的增温和由强的纬向温度梯度引起的暖平流.初步认为下沉增温可能是差分格式本身和模式分辨率不足造成的.从热量平衡的结果看,第二次WWB事件的模拟比第一次更成功,两次差异可能与两次WWB事件的季节背景不同有关.  相似文献   

青藏高原加热与亚洲环流季节变化和夏季风爆发   总被引：13，自引：1，他引：13       下载免费PDF全文

刘新  吴国雄  刘屹岷  刘平 《大气科学》2002,26(6):781-793

利用逐日NCEP/NCAR再分析资料分析了春夏过渡季节青减高原非绝热加热和大气环流季节变化以及亚洲季风爆发的关系.结果表明,过渡季节的早期(5月中旬以前)青藏高原总非绝热加热与感热加热的时间演变曲线趋势一致,感热加热在过渡季节早期的环流演变中有很重要的作用.青藏高原非绝热加热的时间演变与北半球环流的季节变化和亚洲夏季风爆发有很好的相关.在过渡季节里,青藏高原非绝热加热的变化引起了海-陆热力差异对比的变化,给亚洲夏季风的爆发建立了有利的背景环境,对亚洲夏季风爆发有明显的影响.结果还表明,用各区域纬向风垂直差异的时空分布能更准确地表示季节变化的区域差异.  相似文献   

1998年青藏高原东部及其邻近地区大气热源与南海夏季风的关系   总被引：12，自引：12，他引：12  

简茂球  罗会邦 《高原气象》2001,20(4):381-387

利用 1998年 5 8月南海季风试验期间的站点观测资料及NCEP再分析资料 ,计算了大气热源和水汽汇 ,并分析了南海季风爆发前后季风区对流层温度演变及其热力机制。结果表明 :南海夏季风的爆发与季风区对流层中高层南北温度梯度的逆转密切相关。南北温度梯度最先在孟加拉湾以东季风区发生逆转 ,半个月后在印度半岛及其以西地区逆转。季风爆发前中南半岛北部对流层中高层的迅速增温是由感热和潜热共同造成的 ,而华南及南海北部地区的增温则是由暖平流所致。 5、6月高原东部对流层中高层由非绝热加热造成的显著增温对东亚夏季风的北进和维持是非常重要的。 5、6月高原地区热源以感热为主 ;7、8月感热和潜热共同起作用  相似文献   

西风爆发时赤道西太平洋的热量平衡：个例分析     

Liu Hailong  Zhang Xuehong  Li Wei 《大气科学进展》2001,18(5):882-896

The responses of sea surface temperature (SST) in the western equatorial Pacific warm pool to the west erly wind bursts (WWBs) play an important role in the relationship between WWB and ENSO. By using da ta collected from eight buoys of TOGA (Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere)-COARE (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment), the heat balances of the upper ocean in the western equatorial Pacific around 0°. 156°E during two WWB events were calculated according to Stevenson and Niiler＇s (1983) method. In both events, SST increased before and after the WWBs, while decreased within the WWBs. The SST amplitudes approximated to l℃. Although sometimes the horizontal heat advections may become the biggest term in the heat balance, the variation of SST was dominated by the surface heat flux. On the other aspect, some different features of the two events are also revealed. The two cases have different variation of mixed layer depth. The depth of mixed layer is almost double in the first case (35 m to 70 m), which is caused by Ekman convergence, while only 10m increments due to entrainment in the second one. There are also differences in the currents structure. The different variations of thermal and currents struc ture in the mixing layers accounted for the different variation of the heat balance during the two events, es pecially the advection and residue terms. The seasonal variation of SST in this area is also investigated sim ply. The first WWB event happened just during the seasonal transition. So we considered that it is a normal season transition rather than a so-called anomaly. That also suggested that the seasonal distinction of the WWB is worthy of more attention in the researches of its relationship to ENSO.  相似文献   

南半球夏季风的爆发和撤退日期     

于淑秋 《气象科技》1996,(3)

采用１５年（１９７８年４月－１９９２年１２月）经纬网格为１度的地球静止卫星５天平均高云量资料对印度尼西亚、澳大利亚和新几内亚地区的夏季风季节循环、爆发和撤退日期进行分析。对上述资料的分析表明，用平均高云量大于３０％的区域能定义热带对流区（ＩＴＣＺ）云的季节循环。１１月与ＩＴＣＺ相联系的高云区在爪哇和新几内亚北部增强，随后１２月－１月这些高云区向印度尼西亚东部和澳大利亚区域扩展。  相似文献   

南半球夏季风的爆发和撤退日     

Tanak  M 于淑秋 《气象科技》1996,(3):52-57

采用１５年经纬网格为１度的地球静止卫星５天平均高云量资料对印度尼西亚、澳大利亚和新几内亚地区的夏季风季节循环、爆发和撤退日期进行分析。对上述资料的分析表明，用平均高云量大于３０％的区域能定义热带对流区云的季节循环。  相似文献   

活动星系核与类星体中致密天体的形成与并合：伽玛爆发与引力辐射     

王建民 《紫金山天文台台刊》1999,18(3):271-273

频繁的超新星爆发可用以解释活动星系核与类星体的超高金属丰度。星团中的恒星与吸积盘相互作用导致致密天体中子星和黑洞的形成率很高,这些致密天体与红巨星很容易形成双星系统,而后形成（ＮＳ／ＢＨ,ＮＳ／ＢＨ） 双星由于引力辐射最终导致并合而形成伽玛射线爆发。我们估计了伽玛射线爆的爆发频率,发现与观测相符。  相似文献   

太阳射电三频率高时间分辨率三年同步观测的结果     

谢瑞祥  汪敏  陈国强  汪从云 《中国天文和天体物理学报》1993,(1)

本文总结了1987年2月到1989年12月三波段(1.42GHz、2.84GHz和4.0GHz)高时间分辨率同步观测的资料,介绍了各波段尖峰辐射出现的频次、持续时间以及与射电爆发、光学耀斑和X射线爆的统计关系.  相似文献   

Statistical Properties of the Highest Pulses in Gamma-Ray Bursts   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yi-Ping Qin  En-Wei Liang  Guang-Zhong Xie  Cheng-Yue SuNational Astronomical Observatories  Yunnan Observatory  Chinese Academy of Sciences  Kunming  qinyp@public.km.yn.cnDepartment of Physics  Guangxi University  Nanning  eloy@iaa.esDepartment of Physics  Guangdong Industry University  Guangzhou 《中国天文和天体物理学报》2003,3(1):38-48

We study the statistical properties of the highest pulses within individual gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). A wavelet package analysis technique and a developed pulse-finding algorithm have been applied to identify the highest pulses from burst profiles observed by BATSE on board CGRO from 1991 April 21 to 1999 January 26. The statistical light curves of the highest pulses in four energy channels have been derived by an aligning method, which illustrate the temporal evolution of the pulse emission. Our result that narrower pulses go with higher energies is consistent with previous findings. By normalizing both the pulse durations and counts to unity, “characteristic” profiles of the highest pulses in the four channels are also derived. The four characteristic profiles are turned out to be almost the same, thus strongly support the previous conclusion that the temporal profiles in different energy channels are self-similar and the previous conjecture on GRB pulses, implying that the emission process is similar at different energies. The cosmological time dilation effect is examined by investigating the relationship between the pulse flux and pulse duration. An anti-correlation between the two was found, which agrees with the expectation of the cosmological time dilation effect. Also, the evolution of the pulse duration with the observational epoch is studied. The result shows that the pulse duration tends to be shorter in later epochs. This trend cannot be explained by the present theoretical models, and may represent a great challenge to current theories.  相似文献