Including Geological Uncertainty and Economic Analysis in a Rapid Simulation of Hydrocarbon Exploration     

Chungcharoen  E.  Fuller  J. David 《Natural Resources Research》1999,8(3):205-217

Manly's approximation method has been applied to hydrocarbon discovery process modeling in order to approximate the expected value and the standard deviation of the total discovery volume for a given exploratory effort. A major benefit of this method is that it allows the model to run much faster than the regular simulation method, yet it gives accurate results. This paper extends the benefit of Manly's approach by allowing the approximation method to incorporate the uncertainties in geological parameters that drive Manly's approximation, in order to provide an approximation of the complete distribution of total discovery volume that can result from exploration activity. In addition, it allows the model to include economic parameters into an evaluation of the economic worth of the results of exploration activity, producing distributions of net present value within a short period of time. The offshore Nova Scotia Shelf Basin is selected for demonstrating the methodology.  相似文献   

The Southern Margin of the Late Cainozoic Ice Cap on the Central Plateau of Tasmania     

KEVIN KIERNAN 《The Australian geographer》1999,30(1):5-33

The easternmost extremity of the ice cap that developed in the Tasmanian Central Highlands during the time of most extensive Late Cainozoic glaciation lay on the doleritecapped Central Plateau east and north-east of Lake St Clair. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the more restricted ice cover included a small discrete ice cap (probably less than 250-300 m thick) that formed on the Central Plateau. The LGM ice limits on the southern part of the Central Plateau, including all five southern outlet valleys, are reported here. Earlier ice limits have been identified in two of these valleys, but on the plateau proper earlier glacial deposits have been generally extensively reworked beyond the LGM limit, such that confirmation of a glacial origin for diamictons on slopes is difficult. South of the plateau, the oldest deposits flooring lower reaches of two outlet valleys indicate that ice flowed southwards directly from the plateau, but later deposits indicate diffluent flow from the Derwent Glacier.  相似文献   

Late Quaternary Seismic Stratigraphy of the Eastern Bengal Shelf     

Hübscher  C.  Breitzke  M.  Michels  K.  Kudrass  H. R.  Spiess  V.  Wiedicke  M. 《Marine Geophysical Researches》1998,20(1):57-71

An ultra-high-resolution seismic study of the eastern Bengal Shelf with the parametric narrow-beam echosounder Parasound allows the interpretation of late Quaternary depositional patterns in terms of seismic stratigraphy. Accommodation space was still present on the outer shelf during the last lowstand, where a prograding delta developed in the western survey area. Oolitic beach ridges were later formed on top of this lowstand delta. Farther east, large parts of the shelf were exposed to subaerial erosion and a river system extended seaward across the area. A subaqueous highstand delta prograded southwards following the maximum transgression about 7,000 years ago. Its foreset beds exhibit acoustic voids very likely generated by sediment liquefaction, possibly caused by episodic energetic events such as major cyclones and/or earthquakes. Bottomset sediments extend seaward close to the shelf break in the west, whereas no Holocene sediments cover the outer shelf in the east.  相似文献   

Relationships between lightning activity and various thundercloud parameters: satellite and modelling studies     

M. B. Baker  A. M. Blyth  H. J. Christian  J. Latham  K. L. Miller  A. M. Gadian 《Atmospheric Research》1999,51(3-4)

The lightning frequency model developed by Baker et al. [Baker, M.B., Christian, H.J., Latham, J., 1995. A computational study of the relationships linking lightning frequency and other thundercloud parameters, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 121, 1525–1548] has been refined and extended, in an effort to provide a more realistic framework from which to examine computationally the relationships that might exist between lightning frequency f (which is now being routinely measured from a satellite, using the NASA/MSFC Optical Transient Detector (OTD)) and a variety of cloud physical parameters. Specifically, superior or more comprehensive representations were utilised of: (1) glaciation via the Hallett–Mossop (H–M) process; (2) the updraught structure of the model cloud; (3) the liquid-water-content structure of the model cloud; (4) the role of the reversal temperature T_rev in influencing lightning characteristics; (5) the critical breakdown field for lightning initiation; and (6) the electrical characteristics of the ice crystal anvil of the model cloud. Although our extended studies yielded some new insights into the problem, the basic pattern of relationships between f and the other parameters was very close to that reported by Baker et al. (1995). The more elaborate treatment of T_rev restricted somewhat the range of conditions under which reverse-polarity lightning could be produced if the cloud glaciated via H–M, but confirmed the earlier conclusion that such lightning would not occur if the glaciation was of the Fletcher type. The computations yielded preliminary support for the hypothesis that satellite measurements of f might be used to determine values of the ice-content of cumulonimbus anvils: a parameter of climatological importance. The successful launch and continuing satisfactory functioning of the OTD [Christian, H.J., Goodman, S., 1992. Global observations of lightning from space, Proc. 9th Int. Conf. on Atmospheric Electricity, St. Petersburg, pp. 316–321; Christian, H.J., Blakesee, R.J., Goodman, S.J., 1992. Lightning imaging sensor (LIS) for the earth observing system. NASA Tech. Memorandum, 4350] make it possible—with a high degree of precision—to measure lightning location, occurrence time and frequency f over extensive areas of the Earth's surface. Measured global distributions of lightning and associated lightning stroke radiance demonstrate that: lightning activity is particularly pronounced over the tropics, much greater over land than over the oceans, and exhibits great seasonal variability; lightning radiance tends to be greater over the oceans, less when lightning activity is high, and greater in the Northern Hemisphere winter than summer.  相似文献   

祁连山敦德冰心微粒变化特征和大气环境记录   总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14  

刘纯平  姚檀栋  谢树成 《海洋地质与第四纪地质》1999,19(3):105-113

对祁连山敦德冰心总微粒含量、粒径分布以及总微粒含量、粗微粒含量与沙尘暴的关系进行了分析,结果表明,微粒主要来源于亚洲粉尘发源地和区域性源地,属于典型的陆源微粒。微粒含量和微粒粒径变化反映了沙尘暴的强度和波动历史,沙尘暴频率高时,微粒含量高,微粒粒径大,反之,微粒含量低,微粒粒径小。末次冰期以来,微粒含量变化呈减少趋势,暖期微粒含量低,冷期微粒含量高,夏季微粒含量高,冬季微粒含量低;不同粒径微粒相关性良好,反映了它们在来源、沉积和冰内变化方面具有相同之处。  相似文献   

东海陆架北部泥质区沉积动力过程的季节性变化   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

郭志刚  杨作升  雷坤  曲艳慧  范德江 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》1999,(3)

利用东海陆架北部泥质区（济州岛西南）及其周围不同季节５个航次的悬浮体资料和相应的底质粒度资料,对该泥质区沉积动力过程的季节性变化规律进行了分析。结果表明：东海陆架北部悬浮体的高含量区并不与该区的沉积中心（泥质区）相吻合,泥质区的形成需有物源的充沛供应和涡旋的动力效应相结合。泥质区沉积作用时空变化具有强烈的季节性。冬季泥质区悬浮体供应充足,涡旋中心向泥质区东南扩展,是本区接受悬浮体沉积的关键季节。夏、秋二季泥质区的大部分区域缺少悬浮体物源,涡旋中心向北退缩,致使泥质区沉积作用强度降低,并且主要影响泥质区的西北区域。春季泥质区沉积作用强度和影响范围大于夏、秋两季,但小于冬季。  相似文献   

New interpretation on the provenance changes of the upper Pinghu–lower Huagang Formation within Xihu Depression,East China Sea Shelf Basin     

Jinshui Liu  Shuai Li  Kaifei Liao  Yuchi Cui  Lei Shao  Peijun Qiao  Yi Lu  Yuanli Hou  Thian Lai Goh  Yongjian Yao 《海洋学报(英文版)》2023,42(3):89-100

Both Pinghu and Huagang formations are important hydrocarbon reservoirs of the Xihu Depression in the East China Sea Shelf Basin. Clarifying the source suppliers and restoring source-to-sink transport routes are of great significance to the future petroleum and gas undertakings. Previous researchers were largely confined by either limitation of geological records, highly dependence on a singular method or low-precision dating techniques. Our study integrated heavy mineral assemblages, geochemica...  相似文献   

Estimation of maximum scour depth around bridge piers under ice-covered conditions using data-driven methods     

Hosein Nezaratian  Amin Hassanjabbar  Peng Wu 《国际泥沙研究》2023,38(2):191-202

The scouring around bridge foundations is a significant concern in civil engineering. Several research has been conducted experimentally and numerically to study the maximum scour depth around the foundations of a bridge in open channel conditions. In cold regions, where ice forms on lakes, reservoirs, and rivers, the interaction between ice and hydraulic structures is further complicated. The flow distribution varies significantly leading to deeper and larger scouring around bridge foundations....  相似文献   

Advancements and best practices for analysis and correlation of tephra and cryptotephra in ice     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2017

Geochemical analysis of fine grained (<20 μm) tephra found in ice cores is inherently difficult, due to the typically low number and small size of available particles. Ice core tephra samples require specialized sample preparation techniques to maximize the amount of information that can be gained from these logistically limited samples that may provide important chronology to an ice record, as well as linking glacial, marine and terrestrial sediments. We have developed a flexible workflow for preparation of tephra and cryptotephra samples to allow accurate and robust geochemical fingerprinting, which is fundamental to tephrochronology. The samples can be prepared so that secondary electron imagery can be obtained for morphological characterization of the samples to ensure that the sample is tephra-bearing and then the sample can be further prepared for quantitative electron microprobe analysis using wavelength dispersive techniques (EMP-WDS), scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive spectrometry (SEM-EDS), laser ablation inductively coupled mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) or secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS). Some samples may be too small for typical instrumentation conditions to be used (i.e. 20 μm beam on the EMP) to analyze for geochemistry and we present other techniques that can be employed to obtain accurate, although less precise, geochemistry. Methods include analyzing unpolished tephra shards less than 5 μm in diameter with a 1 μm beam on an SEM; using the “broad beam overlap” EMP method on irregular particles less than 20 μm in diameter, and analyzing microlitic shards as well as aphyric shards using EMP to increase the number of analyzed shards in low abundance tephra layers. The methods presented are flexible enough to be employed in other geological environments (terrestrial, marine and glacial) which will help maximize and integrate multiple environments into the overall tephra framework.  相似文献   

冰盖消融的海平面指纹变化及其对GRACE监测结果的影响          下载免费PDF全文

王林松  陈超  马险  杜劲松 《地球物理学报》2018,61(7):2679-2690

全球变暖背景下的冰盖消融以及由此带来海平面上升日益明显,直接影响地球表面的陆地水质量平衡,以及固体地球瞬间弹性响应,研究冰盖质量变化的海平面指纹能够帮助深入了解未来海平面区域变化的驱动因素.本文基于海平面变化方程并考虑负荷自吸效应（SAL）与地球极移反馈的影响,借助美国德克萨斯大学空间研究中心（Center for Space Research,CSR）发布的2003年到2012年十年期间的GRACE重力场月模型数据（RL05）,结合加权高斯平滑的区域核函数,反演得到格陵兰与南极地区冰盖质量变化的时空分布,并利用海平面变化方程计算得到了相对海平面的空间变化,结果表明：格陵兰与南极冰盖质量整体呈明显的消融趋势,变化速率分别为-273.31 Gt/a及-155.56 Gt/a,由此导致整个北极圈相对海平面降低,最高可达约-0.6 cm·a^-1;而南极地区冰盖质量变化趋势分布不一,导致西南极近海相对海平面下降,而东南极地区近海相对海平面上升,最高可达约0.2 cm·a^-1.远离质量负荷区域的全球海平面以上升趋势为主,平均全球相对海平面上升0.71 mm·a^-1,部分远海地区相对海平面上升更加突出（例如北美与澳大利亚）,高出全球平均海平面上升速率将近30%.此外,本文也重点探讨了GRACE监测冰盖消融结果中由于极地近海海平面变化导致的泄漏影响,经此项影响校正后的结果表明：海平面指纹效应对GRACE监测格陵兰与南极地区2003-2012期间整体冰盖消融速率的贡献分别为约3%与9%,建议在后期利用GRACE更精确地估算研究区冰盖质量变化时,应考虑海平面指纹效应的渗透影响.  相似文献