多元统计在大洋玄武岩同位素端元识别中的应用          下载免费PDF全文

李曙光  肖越辉 《地质科学》1994,29(3):298-308

应用因子分析的方差最大旋转和非线性映射方法对海洋玄武岩Sr、Nd、Pb同位素数据在多维空间中的数据结构进行了分析。研究表明这些数据在多维空间中呈五角形结构,并对应5个地幔端元:大西洋中脊玄武岩(DMM),圣埃伦那(HIMU),鲸岛(EMI),萨摩亚岛(EMII)和DS(EMIII).其中DS(EMIII)是本文新识别出来的一个地幔端元,它可能是重新进入地幔的具有较高古老放射成因Pb的下地壳物质。  相似文献   

Bayesian statistics of non-linear inverse problems: example of the magnetotelluric 1-D inverse problem   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Pascal Tarits  Virginie Jouanne  Michel Menvielle  Michel Roussignol 《Geophysical Journal International》1994,119(2):353-368

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南极拉斯曼丘陵地区大地测量控制网   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

陈春明  鄂栋臣  桑吉章 《极地研究》1995,7(3):101-106

南极拉斯曼丘陵地区大地测量控制网的建立与施测前后共历经４年方始完成，总控制面积约１７７．６平方公里。本文主要讨论了该网分区布设情况及总体平差的原理与方法，并对成果进行了统计分析。经过整体平差的结果可以满足１：１００００测图的需要。该网也是我国东南极中山站地区的基础大地控制网  相似文献   

方差的边缘极大似然估计     

周世健 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》1993,(2)

测量平差问题中,方差估计理论是复杂的。本文基于概括模型,组成自由项f(极大似然估计 MLE)的密度函数和改正数向量 V的线性函数(边缘极大似然估计 MMLE)的密度函数,详细推导了函数模型与随机模型中,未知参数 X与σ_0~2 的似然估计公式,分析了基于两种密度函数所得σ_0~2的似然估计存在差异的真正原因,并对两种方法所得的σ_0~2和X 的统计性质进行了讨论。指出边缘极大似然估计,σ_0~2 的具有良好的统计性质,可改善极大似然估计σ_0~2 的不定性(有偏);并且对任一平差模型的边缘极大似然估计,σ_0~2 无偏、有效的统计性质是一致的。  相似文献   

Evaluation of risk concepts in partial duration series     

P. F. Rasmussen  D. Rosbjerg 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1991,5(1):1-16

Conventional design practice aims at obtaining optimal estimates of floods with specified exceedance probabilities. Such estimates are, however, known on the average to be exceeded more frequently than expected. Alternatively, methods focusing on the expected exceedance probability can be used. Two different methods are considered here; the first is based on the sample distribution of true exceedance probabilities. The second is a Bayesian analogue using the likelihood function and a noninformative prior to describe the variability of exceedance probabilities. Appropriate analytical solutions are presented in both cases using the partial duration series approach.  相似文献   

Rainfall estimation using raingages and radar — A Bayesian approach: 1. Derivation of estimators     

D. -J. Seo  J. A. Smith 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1991,5(1):17-29

Procedures for estimating rainfall from radar and raingage observations are constructed in a Bayesian framework. Given that the number of raingage measurements is typically very small, mean and variance of gage rainfall are treated as uncertain parameters. Under the assumption that log gage rainfall and log radar rainfall are jointly multivariate normal, the estimation problem is equivalent to lognormal co-kriging with uncertain mean and variance of the gage rainfall field.The posterior distribution is obtained under the assumption that the prior for the mean and inverse of the variance of log gage rainfall is normal-gamma 2. Estimate and estimation variance do not have closed-form expressions, but can be easily evaluated by numerically integrating two single integrals. To reduce computational burden associated with evaluating sufficient statistics for the likelihood function, an approximate form of parameter updating is given. Also, as a further approximation, the parameters are updated using raingage measurements only, yielding closed-form expressions for estimate and estimation variance in the Gaussian domain.With a reduction in the number of radar rainfall data in constructing covariance matrices, computational requirements for the estimation procedures are not significantly greater than those for simple co-kriging. Given their generality, the estimation procedures constructed in this work are considered to be applicable in various estimation problems involving an undersampled main variable and a densely sampled auxiliary variable.  相似文献   

A factor analytic approach to the identification of geomorphic processes from soil particle size characteristics     

Thomas J. East 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1985,10(5):441-463

Q-mode factor analysis of soil particle size data is used to identify the three dominant geomorphic processes responsible for the spatial variability of particle size in a catchment on the basaltic Darling Downs landsurface. Three factors are shown to account for 95 per cent of the textural variability of a suite of transported and sedentary materials. The spatial characteristics of groups of samples associated with the three factors suggests that the three factors are associated with suspended sediment transport and deposition, weathering, and bedload transport and deposition respectively. These interpretations are supported by the detailed graphical analysis of the cumulative particle size curves. The spatially variable influence of the three factors and related processes is given by their respective factor loadings which are mappable for the surface layer materials.  相似文献   

Geodetic data inversion based on Bayesian formulation with direct and indirect prior information     

Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura  Akemi Noda  Yukitoshi Fukahata 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,171(3):1342-1351

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A model for estimating the value of sampling programs and the optimal number of samples for contaminated soil   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Pär-Erik Back 《Environmental Geology》2007,52(3):573-585

A model is presented for estimating the value of information of sampling programs for contaminated soil. The purpose is to calculate the optimal number of samples when the objective is to estimate the mean concentration. A Bayesian risk–cost–benefit decision analysis framework is applied and the approach is design-based. The model explicitly includes sample uncertainty at a complexity level that can be applied to practical contaminated land problems with limited amount of data. Prior information about the contamination level is modelled by probability density functions. The value of information is expressed in monetary terms. The most cost-effective sampling program is the one with the highest expected net value. The model was applied to a contaminated scrap yard in Göteborg, Sweden, contaminated by metals. The optimal number of samples was determined to be in the range of 16–18 for a remediation unit of 100 m². Sensitivity analysis indicates that the perspective of the decision-maker is important, and that the cost of failure and the future land use are the most important factors to consider. The model can also be applied for other sampling problems, for example, sampling and testing of wastes to meet landfill waste acceptance procedures.  相似文献   

Time independent seismic hazard analysis in Alborz and surrounding area   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mohammad Ashtari Jafari 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(1):237-252

The Bayesian probability estimation seems to have efficiencies that make it suitable for calculating different parameters of seismicity. Generally this method is able to combine prior information on seismicity while at the same time including statistical uncertainty associated with the estimation of the parameters used to quantify seismicity, in addition to the probabilistic uncertainties associated with the inherent randomness of earthquake occurrence. In this article a time-independent Bayesian approach, which yields the probability that a certain cut-off magnitude will be exceeded at certain time intervals is examined for the region of Alborz, Iran, in order to consider the following consequences for the city of Tehran. This area is located within the Alpine-Himalayan active mountain belt. Many active faults affect the Alborz, most of which are parallel to the range and accommodate the present day oblique convergence across it. Tehran, the capital of Iran, with millions of inhabitants is located near the foothills of the southern Central Alborz. This region has been affected several times by historical and recent earthquakes that confirm the importance of seismic hazard assessment through it. As the first step in this study an updated earthquake catalog is compiled for the Alborz. Then, by assuming a Poisson distribution for the number of earthquakes which occur at a certain time interval, the probabilistic earthquake occurrence is computed by the Bayesian approach. The highest probabilities are found for zone AA and the lowest probabilities for zones KD and CA, meanwhile the overall probability is high.  相似文献