北半球环状模和东北冷涡与我国东北夏季降水关系分析   总被引：27，自引：3，他引：24       下载免费PDF全文

何金海  吴志伟  祁莉  姜爱军 《气象与环境学报》2006,22(1):1-5

利用国家气象信息中心提供的1951～2004年全国160个测站月平均降水资料和欧洲中心提供的ERA-40再分析资料,对近50多年东北地区夏季降水、东北冷涡与前期北半球环状模和海温的关系进行了统计分析,定义了一个夏季(6～8月)东北冷涡强度指数(NECVI)。结果表明:NECVI能够较好表征东北低涡的气候效应;夏季东北冷涡强度与降水存在显著的正相关,东北冷涡强年,降水偏多,前期2月北半球环状模(NAM)偏弱;东北冷涡偏弱年,降水偏少,前期2月NAM偏强。此外,夏季东北冷涡与前期的中国近海海温存在显著的负相关,前期NAM和中国近海海温的异常可以作为夏季东北冷涡异常的一个前兆信号,进而为东北地区夏季降水异常的预测提供参考依据。  相似文献   

气象场相关结构对EOFs展开稳定性的影响   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

丁裕国  江志红 《气象学报》1993,51(4):448-456

本文从矩阵扰动理论出发,提出利用矩阵的范数(norm)作为度量气象场随机扰动的稳定性指标,并由此间接推估EOFs展开的稳定性。经理论论证、数值试验和实例计算表明,气象场的相关性越好,达到稳定相关结构所需样本越小,由此得到的EOFs稳定性也越好,反之则不然。上述规律又直接受样本大小n和站点数目p的影响。对于不同的气象场来说,达到稳定EOFs的样本临界值不同,必须警惕EOFs展开有可能不是稳定的。  相似文献   

北半球月平均环流异常垂直结构的综合分析   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12       下载免费PDF全文

靳立亚  张邦林  丑纪范 《大气科学》1993,17(3):310-318

本文用一种时空综合的经验正交函数分析方法,对北半球100、500和700hPa三层月平均高度距平场进行展开,得到了不仅能反映各层高度距平场本身的空间结构分布特征,而且能同时反映各层高层距平场之间有机联系的特征向量场.分析结果表明:北半球月平均环流异常在垂直方向上具有明显的相当正压性结构特征.  相似文献   

黄河中下游地区旱涝分型及突变的初步分析     

尹训钢  吴祥定 《地理学报》1993,48(2):177-185

采用CEOF(复经验正交函数)对黄河中下游地区15个代表站点近500年来的旱涝等级指数分析结果表明,历史时期本地区的旱涝分布特点可用三种分布型表征:平均型、东西反相型和南北反相型,对上述三种旱涝分布型的时间振幅,应用Mann-Kendall方法进行突变检验,可以发现平均型和东西反相型近500年来发生旱涝突变,而南北反相型则相对比较稳定。  相似文献   

腐解9个月后杉木枯枝落叶化感物质对杉木的化感作用     

曹光球  刘学芝  林思祖  胡宗庆  王凌霄 《福建地理》2007,(2)

采用有机溶剂与蒸馏水混和浸提杉木枯枝落叶腐解9个月后化感物质,应用杉木种子发芽试验进行生物检测.结果表明:杉木枯枝落叶腐解9个月后,杉木枯枝落叶中的弱极性化感物质对绝对发芽率、绝对发芽势、胚根长、胚轴长及干物质量等指标表现为抑制作用,对鲜物质量则表现为轻微的促进作用;极性化感物质对杉木种子发芽各指标均等表现为抑制作用.腐解土中的弱极性化感物质对杉木种子发芽各指标均表现为抑制作用,极性化感物质对绝对发芽率、绝对发芽势、胚轴长及干物质量等表现为抑制作用,但对胚根长、鲜物质量表现为促进作用.  相似文献   

Time–frequency representation of earthquake accelerograms and inelastic structural response records using the adaptive chirplet decomposition and empirical mode decomposition     

P.D. Spanos  A. Giaralis  N.P. Politis 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2007,27(7):675-689

In this paper, the adaptive chirplet decomposition combined with the Wigner-Ville transform and the empirical mode decomposition combined with the Hilbert transform are employed to process various non-stationary signals (strong ground motions and structural responses). The efficacy of these two adaptive techniques for capturing the temporal evolution of the frequency content of specific seismic signals is assessed. In this respect, two near-field and two far-field seismic accelerograms are analyzed. Further, a similar analysis is performed for records pertaining to the response of a 20-story steel frame benchmark building excited by one of the four accelerograms scaled by appropriate factors to simulate undamaged and severely damaged conditions for the structure. It is shown that the derived joint time–frequency representations of the response time histories capture quite effectively the influence of non-linearity on the variation of the effective natural frequencies of a structural system during the evolution of a seismic event; in this context, tracing the mean instantaneous frequency of records of critical structural responses is adopted.The study suggests, overall, that the aforementioned techniques are quite viable tools for detecting and monitoring damage to constructed facilities exposed to seismic excitations.  相似文献   

某隔震结构动力特性的理论分析与脉动测试   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

贾洪  徐茂义  闫维明  李振宝 《震灾防御技术》2007,2(4):384-390

本文针对国内最大单体隔震建筑建立了SAP2000三维分析模型,并进行了动力特性的理论分析;现场对实际建筑进行了平移振动、扭转振动、垂直振动和平面内弯曲4个方面的脉动测试。利用工程振动反演理论分析了该结构的固有频率、振型、阻尼等动力特性,将实测结构动力特性与理论分析结果进行比较,详细分析实测结果与理论结果差别的原因,并据此对理论模型进行修正,为今后类似结构的设计积累了资料。  相似文献   

根据天气类型划分欧洲中期天气预报中心的集合预报产品   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

杨学胜  JeanNicolau  NicoleGirardot 《气象学报》2001,59(2):173-182

该研究的主要目的是找出一种对集合预报产品进行释用的新方法。其基本假定是集合预报要素在一定程度上代表了未来可能发生的天气形势。为了解决天气尺度在中期预报的不可预报性问题 ,引入了天气类型的概念。对集合预报进行划分的方法是 Diday提出的动力模糊法 ,初始划分时的重心由天气类型定义 ,划分用到的距离是位移和最大相关方法。根据城市块 (City- Block)距离找出了影响中国的按冬夏两季划分的天气类型 ,初步划分结果表明 ,欧洲中期天气预报中心的集合预报系统可以预报出横槽转竖型天气类型的演变情况 ,在夏天的预报效果则没有冬天好。  相似文献   

经验GREEN函数法研究丽江6.0级强余震的地震动及破裂特征   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

王彬  罗奇峰 《地震研究》2001,24(1):40-47

利用经验Green函数方法，用1996年云南丽江地震后的ML4．7级地震合成了这次地震的最大余震Ms6．0的加速度记录，通过与实际记录在频域和时域的对比研究，分析研究了地震动特征和这次最大余震的可能破裂特征，并对经验Green函数方法进一步的改进方向进行了探讨。  相似文献   

The value of a physically based model versus an empirical approach in the prediction of ephemeral gully erosion for loess-derived soils   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Jeroen Nachtergaele  J. Poesen  A. Steegen  I. Takken  L. Beuselinck  L. Vandekerckhove  G. Govers 《Geomorphology》2001,40(3-4)

A data set on soil losses and controlling factors for 58 ephemeral gullies has been collected in the Belgian loess belt from March 1997 to March 1999. Of the observed ephemeral gullies, 32 developed at the end of winter or in early spring (winter gullies) and 26 ephemeral gullies developed during summer (summer gullies). The assessed data have been used to test the physically based Ephemeral Gully Erosion Model (EGEM) and to compare its performance with the value of simple topographical and morphological indices in the prediction of ephemeral gully erosion.Analysis shows that EGEM is not capable of predicting ephemeral gully cross-sections well. Although conditions for input parameter assessment were ideal, some parameters such as channel erodibility, critical flow shear stress and local rainfall depth showed great uncertainty. Rather than revealing EGEM's inability of predicting ephemeral gully erosion, this analysis stresses the problematic nature of physically based models, since they often require input parameters that are not available or can hardly be obtained.With respect to the value of simple topographical and morphological indices in predicting ephemeral gully erosion, this study shows that for winter gullies and summer gullies, respectively, over 80% and about 75% of the variation in ephemeral gully volume can be explained when ephemeral gully length is known. Moreover, when previously collected data for ephemeral gullies in two Mediterranean study areas and the data for summer gullies formed in the Belgian loess belt are pooled, it appears that one single length (L)–volume (V) relation exists (V=0.048 L^1.29; R²=0.91). These findings imply that predicting ephemeral gully length is a valuable alternative for the prediction of ephemeral gully volume. A simple procedure to predict ephemeral gully length based on topographical thresholds is presented here. Secondly, the empirical length–volume relation can also be used to convert ephemeral gully length data extracted from aerial photos into ephemeral gully volumes.  相似文献