Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Florian Pappenberger  Patrick Matgen  Keith J. Beven  Jean-Baptiste Henry  Laurent Pfister  Paul Fraipont de 《Advances in water resources》2006

In this study, the GLUE methodology is applied to establish the sensitivity of flood inundation predictions to uncertainty of the upstream boundary condition and bridges within the modelled region. An understanding of such uncertainties is essential to improve flood forecasting and floodplain mapping. The model has been evaluated on a large data set. This paper shows uncertainty of the upstream boundary can have significant impact on the model results, exceeding the importance of model parameter uncertainty in some areas. However, this depends on the hydraulic conditions in the reach e.g. internal boundary conditions and, for example, the amount of backwater within the modelled region. The type of bridge implementation can have local effects, which is strongly influenced by the bridge geometry (in this case the area of the culvert). However, the type of bridge will not merely influence the model performance within the region of the structure, but also other evaluation criteria such as the travel time. This also highlights the difficulties in establishing which parameters have to be more closely examined in order to achieve better fits. In this study no parameter set or model implementation that fulfils all evaluation criteria could be established. We propose four different approaches to this problem: closer investigation of anomalies; introduction of local parameters; increasing the size of acceptable error bounds; and resorting to local model evaluation. Moreover, we show that it can be advantageous to decouple the classification into behavioural and non-behavioural model data/parameter sets from the calculation of uncertainty bounds.  相似文献   

Investigating the amount of zeroing in modern sediments of River Danube, Austria     

Markus Fiebig  Frank Preusser 《Quaternary Geochronology》2007,2(1-4):143-149

Sediments attributed to flooding events of River Danube concerning the bleaching of the optical stimulated luminescence (OSL) signal were investigated. It is demonstrated that the OSL signal in both quartz and feldspar is not completely but differentially bleached in the sediment grains. Partial bleaching of the samples is clearly indicated by the scatter of equivalent dose determined for several individual single aliquots. It is also shown that residual ages in feldspars are significantly higher than those calculated for quartz. It is furthermore demonstrated that analysing measurement-time dependent equivalent dose estimates is not a suitable method to identify partial bleaching in the investigated sediment grains. However, the transport and deposition process of the investigated samples was probably disturbed by an artificial input of sediment, and this case study may thus not be representative of undisturbed high flood events in the past.  相似文献   

Peatland development at the arctic tree line (Québec, Canada) influenced by flooding and permafrost     

Najat Bhiry  Serge Payette  lisabeth C. Robert 《Quaternary Research》2007,67(3):426-437

In this study, we documented the Holocene history of a peat plateau at the arctic tree line in northern Québec using stratigraphic and macrofossil analyses to highlight the effects of geomorphic setting in peatland development. Paludification of the site began about 6800 cal yr BP. From 6390 to 4120 cal yr BP, the peatland experienced a series of flooding events. The location of the peatland in a depression bounded by two small lakes likely explains its sensitivity to runoff. The proximity of a large hill bordering the peatland to the south possibly favored the inflow of mineral-laden water. The onset of permafrost aggradation in several parts of the peatland occurred after 3670 cal yr BP. Uplifting of the peatland surface caused by permafrost stopped the flooding. According to radiocarbon dating of the uppermost peat layers, permafrost distribution progressed from the east to the west of the peatland, indicating differential timing for the initiation of permafrost throughout the peatland. Most of the peatland was affected by permafrost growth during the Little Ice Age. Picea mariana macroremains at 6450 cal yr BP indicate that the species was present during the early stages of peatland development, which occurred soon after the sea regression.  相似文献   

Size‐frequency distributions of Joania cordata and Argyrotheca cuneata (Brachiopoda: Megathyrididae) from the Central Tyrrhenian Sea     

Francesca Evangelisti  Paolo G. Albano  Bruno Sabelli 《Marine Ecology》2014,35(3):377-386

Size‐frequency distributions can support reliable inferences concerning population dynamics of brachiopods, but only a few data are available so far. In this study, length and width frequency distributions of dead specimens of the Recent brachiopods Joania cordata and Argyrotheca cuneata from the Marine Protected Area ‘Secche di Tor Paterno’, Central Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy (41°35′ N, 12°20′ E), are reported in order to add new data about size‐frequency distributions of brachiopods. The studied specimens came from death assemblages in the coralligenous substrate, in the Posidonia oceanica meadows, and in the sand channels. The observed patterns vary from left‐skewed (J. cordata) to right‐skewed (A. cuneata), indicating respectively a low and high mortality of smaller individuals. Significant differences between the coralligenous substrate and the P. oceanica meadow were observed for both species, revealing a variation among different habitats. All length and width distributions are clearly polymodal, but the biological meaning of the peaks is difficult to interpret, as the two species seem to have a 2‐year life span. A biometric analysis of shell sizes revealed that length and width are the most variable parameters during the growth of the animal.  相似文献   

Social capital and community preparation for urban flooding in China     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2015

Social capital can enhance community resilience to environmental change. Productive and trusted relations among social actors and effectual social norms can help local residents share resources, information and risks. The main objective of our study is to understand the ways in which social attributes and risk considerations influence adoption of resilient economic measures by individuals for reducing potential losses due to catastrophic rainstorm and flooding. This article provides evidence from China on how social capital contributes to anticipatory adaptation to environmental change. The inquiry is based on structured interviews with local residents of Tianjin, a flood-prone port city in China, and a standard regression analysis. Findings show that the intention to make preparation increases with the levels of social expectation, social relationship, and institutional trust. Perceived risk and damage experience, however, have no significant impacts. This suggests that building social capacity and trust will be more effective in enhancing community resilience than merely increasing awareness of hazard risks. We call for greater efforts on strengthening the capacity of formal and informal communal institutions. The structural changes required, however, are challenging.  相似文献   

全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃背景下北京市暴雨洪涝淹没风险研究     

张君枝  袁冯  王冀  孙赫敏  刘洪  马文林 《气候变化研究进展》2020,16(1):78-87

基于第五次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)的5个气候模式模拟结果,结合FloodArea模型,对RCP8.5情景下全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃时,北京市极端降水和淹没风险进行分析。结果表明：北京市极端降水量呈从西南向东北逐渐减少的分布趋势。在升温2.0℃时,极端降水和淹没风险增加较升温1.5℃时明显,郊区极端降水增加最明显的地区是房山和门头沟,城区极端降水量增加最明显的地区是海淀、石景山和丰台区。海淀区出现一级和二级淹没风险的面积最大,其次是丰台和石景山区。郊区的延庆和怀柔是发生一级淹没风险面积最大的地区。  相似文献   

MORPHOLOGICAL VAMABILITY OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER     

Annie G. BHOWMIK 《国际泥沙研究》1999,(2)

1INTRODUCTIONTheUpperMississippiRiver(U-MR)extendsfromCairo,Illinois,totheheadwaiersoftheMississippiRiver(MR)nearLakeltascainMinnesota.Theentirerivercanbedividedintotwomajorreachesf1)theUpperMississippiRiverfromheadwaierstoCairo,Illinois,totheconfluenceoftheOhioRiverwiththeMississippiRiver,and2)theLowerMississippiRiver(LMR)fromCairo,Illinois,totheGulfofMexico.FigureIshowsthisdivision,includingabreakdownoftheentireriverintofive(5)segmentswhichwillbedescribedinasubsequentsectio…  相似文献   

中华蚊母树(Distylium chinense)幼苗对秋、冬季淹水的生长及生理响应     

刘泽彬  程瑞梅  肖文发  郭泉水  王彦辉  王娜 《湖泊科学》2016,28(2):405-413

为阐明三峡库区岸生植物中华蚊母树(Distylium chinense)幼苗对水淹的耐淹机理,通过设置对照组(CK)、半淹组(PF)、全淹组(CF)3个水淹处理,模拟库区消落带秋、冬季淹水情况,研究中华蚊母树幼苗在不同水淹时间和深度下的生长及生理生化特性.结果表明,淹水显著影响中华蚊母树幼苗的生物量,水淹150 d后,PF组植株和CF组植株根、茎、叶生物量均呈显著降低趋势,同时受水淹影响,植株根冠比也显著降低;中华蚊母树幼苗在水淹前90 d 2组水淹处理植株叶片丙二醛(MDA)含量均与CK组植株差异不显著,水淹120 d后,中华蚊母树幼苗叶片MDA含量显著增加,且随着水淹深度的增加而逐渐升高;可溶性蛋白在各水淹处理中的变化有所差异,水淹前60 d,淹水并没有影响CF组植株可溶性蛋白含量,但从水淹90 d开始,CF组植株可溶性蛋白含量有所上升,而PF组植株可溶性蛋白含量在整个淹水期间均与CK组植株差异不显著;2组水淹处理植株脯氨酸在水淹前期均显著上升,但自水淹90 d后逐渐下降至CK组水平;与MDA对水淹的响应一致,水淹前期PF组和CF组植株抗氧化酶活性(超氧化物歧化酶、过氧化氢酶和抗坏血酸过氧化物酶)均没有出现明显影响,但水淹后期2组水淹处理植株抗氧化酶活性均显著升高;可溶性糖含量在不同水淹处理下有所差异,PF组植株叶片可溶性糖含量在整个淹水期间均与CK组植株差异不显著;而CF组植株叶片可溶性糖含量随着水淹时间的延长逐渐降低.研究证明,中华蚊母树幼苗生长及生理特性对秋、冬季水淹环境具有一定的调节能力,是中华蚊母树幼苗能够在库区消落带存活生长的一个重要原因.  相似文献   

城市基础地理信息系统中大比例尺地形图分幅与编号   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

邹进贵  潘正风  周庆俊 《地理空间信息》2005,3(3):34-35,48

结合城市基础地理信息系统的特点和要求,在原有的地图分幅与编号方法的基础上,提出了一种新的城市基础地理信息系统的地图分幅与编号方法即数字编码法。详细介绍了该方法的规则、特点及其在计算机上的实现。  相似文献   

Integrated multi-scalar analysis of vulnerability to environmental hazards: Assessing extreme flooding in western Amazonia     

《Global Environmental Change》2022

Environmental change is significantly altering hydrological systems worldwide, with substantial impacts for the people who live on floodplains and depend on rivers for their livelihoods and lifeways. Amazonia is a region significantly affected by these changes, particularly more severe flooding. This paper proposes a multi-scalar approach to vulnerability, applying it empirically to the analysis of household vulnerability to the 2011 flood—the second largest flood event along the Ucayali River in 30 years—in terms of exposure, impacts, and responses. Locally relevant indicators for assets, social identity, and social networks at the community and household levels are used to examine their role in shaping flood vulnerability, the interplay of community-level and household-level factors, and differential vulnerability across exposure, impacts, and responses to the same hazard event. We find that the most common impacts of severe flooding in rural Amazonia are on agriculture and that fishing is the dominant response strategy. This study suggests that covariate shocks, like floods, can have distinct idiosyncratic impacts and responses among households. We demonstrate that more integrated approaches to vulnerability analysis offer potential for better understanding differential vulnerabilities within populations as well as for drawing comparisons across hazard events and different settings.  相似文献