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101.
以干旱易发区海河流域为例,利用流域内及其周边地区58个气象站点1961-2010年逐日气象观测数据,结合累积相对湿润度指数和模糊集对评价法,考虑了干旱的累积效应以及评价标准等级边界的模糊性和评价因子的时程分配,分析了海河流域干旱时空变化特征。结果表明:①近50年来流域主要干旱类型为中旱和重旱,平均面积分别约为7.30万km2和7.78万km2,重旱面积呈现出显著的增加趋势;②近25年来,重旱易发区范围表现出扩张的态势,1985-2010年重旱易发区面积达到14.9万km2,为1961-1985年的1.6倍。 相似文献
102.
Rehan Sadiq Solomon Tesfamariam 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2008,22(4):495-505
Environmental indices (EI) constitute a common communication tool that is often used to describe the overall status of environmental
systems (air, water and soil). EI development entails the use of mathematical operators to aggregate various non-commensurate
input parameters in a logical manner. The ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator is a general mean type operator that provides
flexibility in the aggregation process such that the aggregated value is bounded between minimum and maximum values of the
input parameters. This flexibility of the OWA operator is realized through the concept of orness, which is a surrogate for
decision maker’s attitude. The type of input parameters also affects the choice of aggregation operators. If the input parameters
are linguistic or fuzzy, the aggregation through OWA operators is not possible, and the use of fuzzy arithmetic is warranted.
The concept of fuzzy number OWA (FN-OWA) operators is explored to handle situations in which one or more input parameter has
fuzzy (or linguistic) values. The proposed approach is demonstrated using data provided in an earlier study by Swamee and
Tyagi (ASCE J Environ Eng 126(5):451–455, 2000) for establishing water quality indices. Multiple hypothetical scenarios are also generated to highlight the utility and
sensitivity of the proposed approach. 相似文献
103.
Two-stage fuzzy chance-constrained programming: application to water resources management under dual uncertainties 总被引:7,自引:7,他引:0
P. Guo G. H. Huang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(3):349-359
In this study, a two-stage fuzzy chance-constrained programming (TFCCP) approach is developed for water resources management
under dual uncertainties. The concept of distribution with fuzzy probability (DFP) is presented as an extended form for expressing
uncertainties. It is expressed as dual uncertainties with both stochastic and fuzzy characteristics. As an improvement upon
the conventional inexact linear programming for handling uncertainties in the objective function and constraints, TFCCP has
advantages in uncertainty reflection and policy analysis, especially when the input parameters are provided as fuzzy sets,
probability distributions and DFPs. TFCCP integrates the two-stage stochastic programming (TSP) and fuzzy chance-constrained
programming within a general optimization framework. TFCCP incorporates the pre-regulated water resources management policies
directly into its optimization process to analyze various policy scenarios; each scenario has different economic penalty when
the promised amounts are not delivered. TFCCP is applied to a water resources management system with three users. Solutions
from TFCCP provide desired water allocation patterns, which maximize both the system’s benefits and feasibility. The results
indicate that reasonable solutions were generated for objective function values and decision variables, thus a number of decision
alternatives can be generated under different levels of stream flows, α-cut levels and fuzzy dominance indices. 相似文献
104.
Cengiz Kahraman İhsan Kaya 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(4):451-462
Water covers over 70% of the Earth surface and is a very important resource to people and the environment. Water pollution affects drinking water, rivers, lakes and oceans all over the world. This consequently harms human health and the natural environment. Water pollution can also affect the crops. So, water pollution is an important issue for humanity. Therefore, the control of irrigation water is a necessity. In this paper, a methodology based on process capability indices (PCIs) has been presented to control the levels of pH, dissolved oxygen (DO) and temperature (T) in dam’s water for irrigation. Fuzzy PCIs have been proposed for this aim. The fuzzy estimates of $ \hat C_p Water covers over 70% of the Earth surface and is a very important resource to people and the environment. Water pollution
affects drinking water, rivers, lakes and oceans all over the world. This consequently harms human health and the natural
environment. Water pollution can also affect the crops. So, water pollution is an important issue for humanity. Therefore,
the control of irrigation water is a necessity. In this paper, a methodology based on process capability indices (PCIs) has
been presented to control the levels of pH, dissolved oxygen (DO) and temperature (T) in dam’s water for irrigation. Fuzzy PCIs have been proposed for this aim. The fuzzy estimates of and are obtained for pH, DO, and T based on Buckley’s interval estimation approach and based on fuzzy specification limits. An application has been made for
Kesikk?prü Dam in Ankara, Turkey. In this paper, Buckley’s approach is re-arranged to obtain a triangular fuzzy membership
function because it cannot be obtained from Buckley’s approach in some situation. 相似文献
105.
Emergency management evaluation by a fuzzy multi-criteria group decision support system 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
Guangquan Zhang Jun Ma Jie Lu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(4):517-527
Emergency risk management (ERM) is a process which involves dealing with risks to the community arising from emergency events.
Emergency management evaluation as one of the important parts of ERM aims assessing and improving social preparedness and
organizational ability in identifying, analyzing, and treating emergency risks. This study first develops an emergency management
evaluation model. It then proposes an extended fuzzy multi-criteria group evaluation method, which can deal with both subjective
and objective criteria under multi-levels by a group of evaluators, for emergency management evaluation. A fuzzy multi-criteria
group decision support system (FMCGDSS) is then developed to implement the proposed method for the case of emergency operating
center/system evaluation. 相似文献
106.
Quantification of spatial gradation of slope positions 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
Cheng-Zhi Qin A-Xing Zhu Xun Shi Bao-Lin Li Tao Pei Cheng-Hu Zhou 《Geomorphology》2009,110(3-4):152-161
Transition between slope positions (e.g., ridge, shoulder slope, back slope, foot slope, and valley) is often gradual. Quantification of spatial transitions or spatial gradations between slope positions can increase the accuracy of terrain parameterization for geographical or ecological modeling, especially for digital soil mapping at a fine scale. Current models for characterizing the spatial gradation of slope positions based on a gridded DEM either focus solely on the parameter space or depend on too many rules defined by topographic attributes, which makes such approaches impractical. The typical locations of a slope position contain the characteristics of the slope position in both parameter space and spatial context. Thus, the spatial gradation of slope positions can be quantified by comparing terrain characteristics (spatial and parametrical) of given locations to those at typical locations. Based on this idea, this paper proposes an approach to quantifying the spatial gradation of slope positions by using typical locations as prototypes. This approach includes two parts: the first is to extract the typical locations of each slope position and treat them as the prototypes of this position; and the second is to compute the similarity between a given location and the prototypes based on both local topographic attributes and spatial context. The new approach characterizes slope position gradation in both the attribute domain (i.e., parameter space) and the spatial domain (i.e., geographic space) in an easy and practicable way. Applications show that the new approach can quantitatively describe spatial gradations among a set of slope positions. Comparison of spatial gradation of A-horizon sand percentages with the quantified spatial gradation of slope positions indicates that the latter reflects slope processes, confirming the effectiveness of the approach. The comparison of a soil subgroup map of the study area with the maximum similarity map derived from the approach also suggests that the quantified spatial gradation of slope position can be used to aid geographical modeling such as digital soil mapping. 相似文献
107.
108.
广东沿海陆地地质环境质量定量评价研究 总被引:13,自引:1,他引:12
广东沿海陆地不仅是我国经济较为发达的地区 ,而且也是地震、水土流失、崩塌、滑坡、地裂缝、地面沉降、岩溶塌陷、软土地基形变等地质灾害较为频发的地区。基于对广东沿海陆地主要物理地质灾害形成条件与影响因素调查、统计与分析 ,将广东沿海陆地地质环境质量划分 :构造稳定性、斜坡稳定性和地基稳定性三个质量层面 ,进而构造了隶属三个层面的指标体系 ,该指标体系包括活动断裂、地震活动、地形起伏度、斜坡坡地、冲沟切割密度、水土流失程度、崩滑面密度、土体承载力和地裂缝面密度 9个指标。基于地质环境质量五值逻辑等级取值 :优等、良好、中等、较差和差等 ,对评价指标进行了相应地量化分级取值和标准化处理 ,在建立指标专家权重体系和线性隶属函数的基础上 ,构造了模糊数学综合评价模型。基于 Fortran程序对 190个剖分单元指标数据进行了模型运算 ,将广东沿海陆地地质环境划分为五个质量级共 17个地质环境质量单元。 相似文献
109.
抗震设防决策中的模糊信息处理 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
抗震设防决策过程中涉及到许多对整个分析过程都具有重要意义的模糊信息 ,本文提出一种结合模糊信息进行地震危险性概率分析与抗震设防决策的方法 ,介绍了用模糊集模拟模糊信息的原理 ,以及进一步处理模糊信息的区间分析顶点法。作为一例 ,这些方法结合基于泊松分布的地震烈度发生概率模型 ,应用于南京市区未来 5 0年的地震危险性与抗震设防效益分析 ,提供模糊的结论供设防决策参考。 相似文献
110.