中印对尼泊尔地缘影响力的演变分析     

张良兵  骆华松  洪菊花  陆好健 《世界地理研究》2020,29(1):43-51

尼泊尔在地理位置上处于中国和印度包围之中,由于历史原因,其经济、政治、军事等长期受到制约。随着中国“一带一路”倡议的推进和中印近年来领土和国际政治问题的冲突与分歧,尼泊尔正在成为中印新的角力场。本文首先通过构建地缘影响力模型进行演变格局分析与趋势预测,并加入世界环境和区域环境两方面影响因素,运用定性与定量分析结合的方法,预测中、尼、印三国未来战略行动方向。综合以上分析发现：1）2000年—2016年,中国对尼泊尔地缘影响力较于印度对于尼泊尔地缘影响力上升趋势明显,预计在2022年至2023年中、印对尼泊尔地缘影响力达到平衡。2）硬实力是中国对尼泊尔地缘影响力上升的关键因素;软实力和交流互动力是未来中国增强在尼泊尔地缘影响力的发展因素;地理环境是中国对尼泊尔地缘影响力发展的制约因素。3）未来中国将继续实施积极性合作战略,印度形成对中国遏制性防范战略,尼泊尔维持被动性中印平衡战略。  相似文献   

Habitat range of two alpine medicinal plants in a trans-Himalayan dry valley, Central Nepal     

Bharat Babu SHRESTHA  Pramod Kumar JHA 《山地科学学报》2009,6(1):66-77

Understanding of the habitat range of threatened Himalayan medicinal plants which are declining in their abundance due to high anthropogenic disturbances is essential for developing conservation strategies and agrotechnologies for cultivation. In this communication, we have discussed the habitat range of two alpine medicinal plants, Aconitum naviculare （Bruehl） Stapf and Neopicrorhiza scrophulariiflora （Pennel） Hong in a trans-Himalayan dry valley of central Nepal, Manang district. They are the most prioritized medicinal plants of the study area in terms of ethnomedicinal uses. A. naviculare occurs on warm and dry south facing slopes between 4090-4650 m asl along with sclerophyllous and thorny alpine scrubs, while N. scrophulariiflora is exclusively found on cool and moist north facing slope between 4000 and 4400 m asl where adequate water is available from snow melt to create a suitable habitat for this wetland dependent species. The soil in rooting zone of the two plants differs significantly in organic carbon （OC）, organic matter （OM）, total nitrogen （N） and carbon to nitrogen （C/N） ratio. Due to cool and moist condition of N. scrophulariiflora habitat, accumulation of soil OC is higher, but soil N content is lower probably due to slow release from litter, higher leaching loss and greater retention in perennial live biomass of the plant. The C/N ratio of soil is more suitable in A. navuculare habitat than that of N scrophulariiflora for N supply. Warm and sunny site with N rich soil can be suitable for cultivation ofA. naviculare, while moist and cool site with organic soil for N. scrophulariiflora. The populations of both the plants are fragmented and small. Due to collection by human and trampling damage by livestock, the population of A. naviculare was found absent in open areas in five of the six sampling sites and it was confined only within the bushes of alpine scrubs. For N. serophulariiflora, high probability of complete receding of small glaeiers may be a new threat in future to its habitat. The information about habitat conditions, together with the information from other areas, ean be useful to identify potential habitats and plan for cultivation or domestication of the two medieinal plants.  相似文献   

尼泊尔地震的NOAA卫星数据震前异常分析     

林岭  孔祥增  李南  熊攀 《地球信息科学学报》2018,20(8):1169-1177

发生地震时常伴随有地热辐射增强现象,这些异常信息隐藏于遥感卫星NOAA所捕获的地球射出长波辐射（OLR）数据中,目前多数研究还停留在对源数据的解读,缺乏有效的信息处理技术,致使大部分的OLR数据没有得到充分利用。因此,本文提出一种基于鞅理论的概率统计方法来识别异常特征算法,从有噪声的非结构化的源数据中提取出震前OLR数据异常变化特征序列,从时间序列和地域范围进行震前异常分析。本算法实验是以尼泊尔的在2014年9月至2015年7月期间（包括2015年4月25日Ms7.8大地震）发生的3次地震的OLR数据为例,实验结果显示震中区域的OLR数据在震前的2~3个月开始有显著的异常数据变化,通过分析发现数据显示数据异常在震前出现的时间长短与地震的大小相关,异常的发生区域与震区周围的地貌特征相关。这说明基于鞅理论的算法所提取的OLR数据异常点序列的确与地震发生的时间地点是有关系的。  相似文献   

Partial L-moments for the analysis of censored flood samples / Utilisation des L-moments partiels pour l’analyse d’échantillons tronqués de crues     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5)

Abstract

Abstract A parameter estimation method is proposed for fitting the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to censored flood samples. Partial L-moments (PL-moments), which are variants of L-moments and analogous to ?partial probability weighted moments?, are defined for the analysis of such flood samples. Expressions are derived to calculate PL-moments directly from uncensored annual floods, and to fit the parameters of the GEV distribution using PL-moments. Results of Monte Carlo simulation study show that sampling properties of PL-moments, with censoring flood samples of up to 30% are similar to those of simple L-moments, and also that both PL-moment and LH-moments (higher-order L-moments) have similar sampling properties. Finally, simple L-moments, LH-moments, and PL-moments are used to fit the GEV distribution to 75 annual maximum flow series of Nepalese and Irish catchments, and it is found that, in some situations, both LH- and PL-moments can produce a better fit to the larger flow values than simple L-moments.  相似文献   

尼泊尔Ms8.1地震构造背景及对周边地区地震活动趋势的影响     

雷东宁  蔡永建  李恒  吴建超  乔岳强  余松  廉超 《大地测量与地球动力学》2015,35(5):738-741

分析印度板块与欧亚板块俯冲带、尼泊尔Ms8.1地震震中区地震构造及地震发震构造,讨论主震对余震触发及余震的时空强特征和地震对周边地区地震活动趋势的影响。初步分析认为,主边界断裂为本次地震的发震构造,属于低角度逆冲断层地震;余震分布范围与震源破裂面积和方式基本一致,具有向东迁移的时空特征;西藏定日Ms5.9、聂拉木Ms5.3地震不属于尼泊尔地震余震,是应力扰动的结果;沿俯冲带向东至喜马拉雅东构造结是大震发生的危险地段。  相似文献   

尼泊尔Ms8.1地震前我国西藏及周边区域的重力长期变化     

康开轩  李辉  刘少明  郝洪涛  邹正波 《大地测量与地球动力学》2015,35(5):742-746

根据1998~2013中国地壳运动观测网络、中国数字地震观测网络工程和中国大陆构造环境监测网络流动重力观测成果,给出了中国西藏及周边地区的重力年变率分布。结合青藏高原冰川消融和高原湖泊水位变化,估算了由陆地水储量变化引起的区域重力效应。基于50km平滑半径的高斯滤波,给出了测区内15a时间尺度的重力变化空间分布,并初步探讨了尼泊尔Ms8.1地震孕育的重力场长期背景趋势变化。结果表明:1)流动重力典型测点的时间序列表现出明显的线性变化特征,表明测点附近区域的长期重力变化以线性上升趋势为主,反映了区域重力逐年累积增加的背景效应;2)中国西藏及周边区域的重力长期变化在空间分布上具有显著的不均匀性和分区现象,这与青藏高原复杂的变形构造和动力学系统密切相关。喜马拉雅活动构造带在15a时间尺度上明显呈正重力变化趋势,可能与印度板块与欧亚板块存在的持续挤压变形引起的地下物质重新分布与调整有关,反映了大震孕育过程中地壳变形和介质变化引起的震区周围应力与能量的累积。  相似文献   

Sustainability of transhumance grazing systems under socio-economic threats in Langtang,Nepal     

Suman Aryal  Tek Narayan Maraseni  Geoff Cockfield 《山地科学学报》2014,11(4):1023-1034

The decline or loss of traditional social- ecological systems may induce adverse effects to the societies and ecosystems. Transhumance, the recurring and seasonal movement of grazing livestock, is increasingly constrained by a numbers of factors including policy, land use and soeio-economic changes in Nepal. To explore how these changes have affected the transhumance, this study investigated transhumance at the Langtang valley in central Nepal. The specific objectives of this study were to determine the herd size and composition, spatial-temporal patterns and to identify the major drivers of the system and the system changes. Data were collected from field study comprising semi-structured interviews with the herders, focus group discussions, key informants survey, and observations of rangeland and livestock management systems. The study revealed that the transhumanee system in the Langtang is influenced by two types of drivers. In one hand, traditional practices are contributing to the sustainability of the system. On the other hand, the grazing patterns and adaptive responses are strongly influenced by changes in government policies, socioeconomic and cultural transformation, livestock productivity, markets, rangeland conditions and climate change. The findings of this study help with the development and implementation of transhumance management policy for the sustainability.  相似文献   

RESOURCE NEEDS AND LAND STRESS IN RAPTI ZONE,NEPAL *     

David N. Zurick 《The Professional geographer》1988,40(4):428-444

Regional and village land resource issues and environmental conditions in the Rapti zone, western Nepal are discussed in the context of the Himalaya Environmental Degradation theory (Ives 1987). Ecological stress is indicated in agriculture to forest land ratios, farmland capability, and land use change. Intra-regional differences and specific local conditions indicate the complex dimensions of environmental and development issues in the Rapti zone.  相似文献   

Infilling of the Younger Kathmandu–Banepa intermontane lake basin during the Late Quaternary (Lesser Himalaya,Nepal): a sedimentological study     

H. G. Dill  D. R. Khadka  R. Khanal  R. Dohrmann  F. Melcher  K. Busch 《第四纪科学杂志》2003,18(1):41-60

The Kathmandu and Banepa Basins, Central Nepal, are located in a large syncline of the Lesser Himalayas. The Older Kathmandu Lake evolved during the Pliocene and early Pleistocene; the Younger Kathmandu Lake, which is the focus of this study, is infilled with late Quaternary sediments. Three formations, arranged in stratigraphical order, the Kalimati, Gokarna and Thoka Formations formed during the infilling stage of this lacustrine basin. Structural and textural sedimentological analyses, a chemical survey across the basin and mineralogical investigations of fine‐grained sediments form the basis of this palaeogeographical study. The basin under investigation was covered by a perennial freshwater lake before 30 000 yr BP. The lake was infilled with alluvial and fluvial sediments delivered mainly from the mountains north of the basin. A fairly low gradient was favourable for the formation of diatomaceous earths, carbonaceous mudstones and siltstones, which were laid down in the centre of the lake and in small ponds. Towards the basin edge, lacustrine sediments gave way to deltaic deposits spread across the delta plain. Crevasse splays and anastomosing rivers mainly delivered suspended load for the widespread siltstones and mudstones. The proximal parts of the alluvial–fluvial sedimentary wedge contain debris flows that interfinger with fine‐grained floodplain deposits. Three highstands of the water‐level (>30 000 yr BP, 28 000–19 000 yr BP, 11 000–4000 yr BP (?)) have been recognised in the sedimentary record of the younger Kathmandu Lake in the Late Quaternary. Second‐order water‐level fluctuations are assumed to be triggered by local processes (damming by tectonically induced landslides). First‐order water‐level fluctuations are the result of climatic changes. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A case study of coping strategies and landslides in two villages of Central-Eastern Nepal     

Karen Sudmeier-Rieux  Stephanie Jaquet 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2012,32(2):680-690

Landslides are an increasing problem in Nepal’s Middle Hills due to both natural and human phenomena: mainly increasingly intense monsoon rains and a boom in rural road construction. This problem has largely been neglected due to underreporting of losses and the dispersed nature of landslides. Understanding how populations cope with landslides is a first step toward developing more effective landslide risk management programs. The present research focuses on two villages in Central-Eastern Nepal, both affected by active landslides but with different coping strategies. Research methods are interdisciplinary, based on a geological assessment of landslide risk and a socio-economic study of the villages using household questionnaires, focus group discussions and transect walks. Community risk maps are compared with geological landslide risk maps to better understand and communicate community risk perceptions, priorities and coping strategies. A modified typology of coping strategies is presented, based on previous work by Burton, Kates, and White (1993) that is useful for decision-makers for designing more effective programs for landslide mitigation. Main findings underscore that coping strategies, mainly seeking external assistance and outmigration, are closely linked to access to resources, ethnicity/social status and levels of community organization. Conclusions include the importance of investing in organizational skills, while building on local knowledge about landslide mitigation for reducing landslide risk. There is great potential to increase coping strategies by incorporating skills training on landslide mitigation in existing agricultural outreach and community forest user group training.  相似文献