Trends in rainfall and temperature in the Peruvian Amazon–Andes basin over the last 40 years (1965–2007)     

Waldo Sven Lavado Casimiro  David Labat  Josyane Ronchail  Jhan Carlo Espinoza  Jean Loup Guyot 《水文研究》2013,27(20):2944-2957

The hydroclimatology of the Peruvian Amazon–Andes basin (PAB) which surface corresponding to 7% of the Amazon basin is still poorly documented. We propose here an extended and original analysis of the temporal evolution of monthly rainfall, mean temperature (T_mean), maximum temperature (T_max) and minimum temperature (T_min) time series over two PABs (Huallaga and Ucayali) over the last 40 years. This analysis is based on a new and more complete database that includes 77 weather stations over the 1965–2007 period, and we focus our attention on both annual and seasonal meteorological time series. A positive significant trend in mean temperature of 0.09 °C per decade is detected over the region with similar values in the Andes and rainforest when considering average data. However, a high percentage of stations with significant T_mean positive trends are located over the Andes region. Finally, changes in the mean values occurred earlier in T_max (during the 1970s) than in T_min (during the 1980s). In the PAB, there is neither trend nor mean change in rainfall during the 1965–2007 period. However, annual, summer and autumn rainfall in the southern Andes presents an important interannual variability that is associated with the sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic Ocean while there are limited relationships between rainfall and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. On the contrary, the interannual temperature variability is mainly related to ENSO events. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

How did the suspended sediment load change in the North Caucasus during the Anthropocene?     

Anatoly Tsyplenkov  Valentin Golosov  Pelagiya Belyakova 《水文研究》2021,35(10):e14403

Quantifying and understanding catchment sediment fluxes is crucial both from a scientific and environmental management perspective. To deepen the understanding of landuse impacts and climate change on sediment load, we explore factors controlling the suspended sediment load formation in the Northern Caucasus during the Anthropocene. We examine how sediment flux of various river basins with different land-use/landcover and glacier cover changes during the 1925–2018 period. Our analysis is based on observed mean annual suspended sediment discharges (SSD, kg s⁻¹) and annual fluxes (SSL, t year⁻¹) from 33 gauging stations of The Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Russia). SSL series have been analysed to detect statistically significant changes during the 1925–2018 period. The occurrence of abrupt change points in SSD was investigated using cumulative sum (CUSUM) charts. We found that SSL has decreased by −1.17% per year on average at most gauges. However, the decline was not linear. Several transition years are expected in the region increasing trends from the 1950s and decreasing trends from 1988 to 1994. Correlation analyses showed that variation in SSL trend values is mainly explained by gauging station altitude, differences in landuse (i.e. the fraction of cropland), and catchment area. Nonetheless, more accurate quantifications of SSL trend values and more refined characterizations of the catchments regarding (historical) landuse, soil types/lithology, weather conditions, and topography may reveal other tendencies.  相似文献   

渤海底质沉积物粒度特征及输运趋势探讨   总被引：11，自引：5，他引：6  

乔淑卿  石学法  王国庆  杨刚  胡宁静  刘升发  刘焱光  朱爱美  李朝新 《海洋学报》2010,32(4):139-147

基于对渤海171个表层沉积物样品的粒度分析测试结果,使用Gao-Collins粒径趋势分析方法,研究了渤海底质沉积物的分布特征和输运趋势,结果表明:渤海粗粒级沉积物主要分布于辽东和渤中浅滩附近,在滦河口和黄河口也有零星分布;细粒级沉积物主要分布于渤海湾中部和南部,并呈条带状向辽东湾方向延伸;细粒级沉积物分选较粗粒级沉积物好,偏态系数较低;渤海细粒级沉积区为渤海的现代沉积中心,周边沉积物有向这个沉积中心汇聚的输运趋势。这种沉积物分布格局和输运趋势主要受潮流和渤海环流的控制。  相似文献   

Exploring possible connections between hydrological extreme events and climate change in central south Chile     

Sebastian Vicuña  Jorge Gironás  Francisco Javier Meza  María Luisa Cruzat  Mark Jelinek  Eduardo Bustos 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(8):1598-1619

Abstract

Motivated by recent extreme flow events in the Mataquito River located in the Mediterranean region of Chile, we performed a detailed trend analysis of critical hydroclimatic variables based on observed daily flow, precipitation and temperature within the basin. For the period 1976–2008, positive trends in temperature were observed, especially during spring and summer months. At the same time, we found negative trends in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, especially during spring months. We observed an increasing difference between average streamflow in the rainy season as compared to the snowmelt season. Part of this trend is caused by larger flows during autumn months, although no positive precipitation trends are observed for these months. Finally, significant reductions in minimum flow during spring/summer and a disproportionate concentration of high-flow events occurring in the last 10 years were also identified. These high-flow events tend to happen during autumn months, and are associated with high precipitation and high minimum temperatures. Based on a simple assessment of changes in irrigated agriculture and land use, we concluded that other non-climatic factors seem not to be as relevant to the detected flow trends. All these results are in accord with future climate change scenarios that show an increase in temperature, a reduction in average precipitation and a reduction in snow accumulation. Such future scenarios could seriously hamper the development of economic activities in this basin, exemplifying also a fate that may be shared by other similar basins in Chile and in other regions of the world.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Vicuña, S., Gironás, J., Meza, F.J., Cruzat, M.L., Jelinek, M., Bustos, E., Poblete, D., and Bambach, N., 2013. Exploring possible connections between hydrological extreme events and climate change in central south Chile. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1598–1619.  相似文献   

天然气水合物实验装置及其发展趋势     

宁伏龙  蒋国盛  张凌  吴翔  窦斌  张家铭 《海洋地质译丛》2008,(2):68-72

研究天然气水合物离不开实验模拟。分析了国内外水合物实验装置设计和发展情况及相应的实验研究内容，总结了水合物实验系统构成，探讨了我国与国外水平的差距，最后归纳了国内外水合物实验装置研究特点与技术发展趋势，并给出了提高我国水合物综合实验研究水平的建议。  相似文献   

Impacts of climate change and human activities on surface runoff in the Dongjiang River basin of China     

Dedi Liu  Xiaohong Chen  Yanqing Lian  Zhanghua Lou 《水文研究》2010,24(11):1487-1495

Observed rainfall and flow data from the Dongjiang River basin in humid southern China were used to investigate runoff changes during low‐flow and flooding periods and in annual flows over the past 45 years. We first applied the non‐parametric Mann–Kendall rank statistic method to analyze the change trend in precipitation, surface runoff and pan evaporation in those three periods. Findings showed that only the surface runoff in the low‐flow period increased significantly, which was due to a combination of increased precipitation and decreased pan evaporation. The Pettitt–Mann–Whitney statistical test results showed that 1973 and 1978 were the change points for the low‐flow period runoff in the Boluo sub‐catchment and in the Qilinzui sub‐catchment, respectively. Most importantly, we have developed a framework to separate the effects of climate change and human activities on the changes in surface runoff based on the back‐propagation artificial neural network (BP‐ANN) method from this research. Analyses from this study indicated that climate variabilities such as changes in precipitation and evaporation, and human activities such as reservoir operations, each accounted for about 50% of the runoff change in the low‐flow period in the study basin. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Evaluation of temperature trends over India / Evaluation de tendances de température en Inde     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1)

Abstract

Abstract The impact of climate change is projected to have different effects within and between countries. Information about such change is required at global, regional and basin scales for a variety of purposes. An investigation was carried out to identify trends in temperature time series of 125 stations distributed over the whole of India. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to detect monotonic trends in annual average and seasonal temperatures. Three variables related to temperature, viz. mean, mean maximum and mean minimum, were considered for analysis on both an annual and a seasonal basis. Each year was divided into four principal seasons, viz. winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon. The percentages of significant trends obtained for each parameter in the different seasons are presented. Temperature anomalies are plotted, and it is observed that annual mean temperature, mean maximum temperature and mean minimum temperature have increased at the rate of 0.42, 0.92 and 0.09°C (100 year)^-1, respectively. On a regional basis, stations of southern and western India show a rising trend of 1.06 and 0.36°C (100 year)^-1, respectively, while stations of the north Indian plains show a falling trend of –0.38°C (100 year)^-1. The seasonal mean temperature has increased by 0.94°C (100 year)^-1 for the post-monsoon season and by 1.1°C (100 year)^-1 for the winter season.  相似文献   

Climatic Trend of Cloud Amount Related to the Aerosol Characteristics in Beijing During 1950-2005     

WANG Jizhi  YANG Yuanqin  ZHANG Guangzhi  YU Shuqi 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2010,24(6):762-775

This paper analyzes the correlation between variations of total and low cloud amounts and the varying features of aerosols related to urban development of Beijing by using the cubic spline fitting method based on the monthly meteorological data of temperature,humidity,precipitation,clouds,and aerosol optical depth (AOD) during 1950-2005.The statistics on the development of the city of Beijing in this period,including the total industrial output,population,residential housing development,highway construct...  相似文献   

荒漠绿洲交错区绿洲扩张与主要水文过程     

常学礼  李秀梅  白雪莲  季树新  王理想 《中国沙漠》2019,39(4):204-211

干旱区绿洲扩张主要发生在荒漠绿洲交错区（边缘区），绿洲空间变化对地表主要水文过程有直接影响。为了更好地了解这一变化机制，以绿洲与沙漠、荒漠、石质裸山交错分布的张掖绿洲边缘区为对象，采用F显著性检查和Mann-Kandell趋势分析对1987年以来绿洲与不同生态系统之间转化特点与趋势进行了研究，同时分析了绿洲扩张与主要水文过程关系。结果表明：1987—2017年来荒漠绿洲交错区不同生态系统空间变化主要发生在绿洲与沙漠和荒漠3种生态系统之间。转化以绿洲扩张为主要特点，累积扩张了1 696.86 hm²，平均每年56.56 hm²。其中，沙漠和荒漠分别转化了31.73 hm²·a^-1和24.83 hm²·a^-1。黑河中游干流用水量在研究时段内无显著性突变，多年平均为7.68×10⁸ m³，对绿洲面积扩张无显著性影响。但是地下水埋深在1998年发生显著性突变，突变周期发生在1997—2000年。总体来看，绿洲面积每增加520 hm²，地下水埋深下降1 m。地下水位埋深对绿洲扩张有显著性影响，是绿洲扩张最敏感的水文过程要素。  相似文献   

Impact of climate variability on an east Australian bay     

U. Gräwe  J.-O. Wolff  J. Ribbe 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2010

The climate along the subtropical east coast of Australia is changing significantly. Rainfall has decreased by about 50 mm per decade and temperature increased by about 0.1 °C per decade during the last 50 years. These changes are likely to impact upon episodes of hypersalinity and the persistence of inverse circulations, which are often characteristic features of the coastal zone in the subtropics and are controlled by the balance between evaporation, precipitation, and freshwater discharge. In this study, observations and results from a general ocean circulation model are used to investigate how current climate trends have impacted upon the physical characteristics of the Hervey Bay, Australia. During the last two decades, mean precipitation in Hervey Bay deviates by 13% from the climatology (1941–2000). In the same time, the river discharge is reduced by 23%. In direct consequence, the frequency of hypersaline and inverse conditions has increased. Moreover, the salinity flux out of the bay has increased and the evaporation induced residual circulation has accelerated. Contrary to the drying trend, the occurrence of severe rainfalls, associated with floods, leads to short-term fluctuations in the salinity. These freshwater discharge events are used to estimate a typical response time for the bay.  相似文献