布朗族的天文历法知识刍议     

李海樱 《天文研究与技术》1999,(2):1

布朗族使用傣历（祖葛历）,以月份结合物候变化指导生产,生活中使用７ｄ（天）为１轮的纪日制度,并将７个日名赋予不同寓意。这种状况可能距今只有２００余年的历史,在此以前的历法,由于没有文字记录而被完全淡忘了,但从其先民的崖画和口头流传的传说中,有阴阳并重、同时崇拜太阳和月亮的内容看,是处于阴阳合历初期的“物候历”,其内容应与佤族（清朝时分化）的阴阳历相似。  相似文献   

嘉峪关光化楼残损变形现状及抗震性能分析     

巴振宁  焦鹏  张龙  刘冰松  张翔 《震灾防御技术》2020,15(2):293-304

中国木结构建筑是我国宝贵的物质文化遗产和文化瑰宝，具有悠久的文化历史。以嘉峪关光化楼为依托，对光化楼进行实地调研，分析光化楼主要残损变形。采用ANSYS软件建立考虑光化楼残损变形的三维有限元精细模型，并进行模态分析与时程分析。研究结果表明，光化楼主要残损变形为油饰脱落、墙体剥蚀开裂、柱偏移等，极个别柱产生较大偏移；光化楼刚度相对稳定，前20阶振型自振频率均在10Hz以内；光化楼动力放大系数与层间位移角均较小，仍具有良好的抗震减震性能。  相似文献   

表面气温内部变率估算方法的比较研究     

陆静文  周天军  黄昕  张文霞  邹立维 《大气科学》2020,44(1):105-121

本文利用37个CMIP5模式和CESM（Community Earth System Model）包含40个成员的超级集合试验的表面气温预估数据，比较了工业革命前气候参照试验、多项式拟合法和方差分析方法这三种目前在国际上运用较多的方法所估算的表面气温内部变率的异同，分析了内部变率的估算对气候预估中信号萌芽时间（TOE）的影响。结果表明:若采用CMIP5多模式集合，则工业革命前气候参照试验和多项式拟合法都是估算内部变率的合理方法，而方差分析方法则由于包含模式性能自身的影响会夸大内部变率故不推荐使用。内部变率的全球分布呈现出极向强化的现象，中高纬度地区的内部变率幅度远大于热带、副热带地区。内部变率受不同排放情景的影响较小，且随时间无显著变化，但方差分析方法估算的内部变率在热带地区容易受到排放情景的影响。若基于类似CESM这样的单个气候模式的超级集合模拟试验来估算内部变率，三种方法估算的结果相似。不同方法估算的内部变率对TOE的影响主要位于北大西洋拉布拉多海、南大洋威德尔海和罗斯海等邻近海洋深对流区。对于中国区域平均来说，基于CESM超级集合模拟试验，三种方法估算的内部变率与强迫信号之比都小于15%；对CMIP5多模式集合，采用工业革命前气候参照试验和多项式拟合法得到的结果与此接近，但若采用方差分析方法则显著高估内部变率的作用。  相似文献   

雷电电磁辐射脉冲的GPS多站同步系统   总被引：9，自引：5，他引：4  

张彤  张广庶  郄秀书 《高原气象》2003,22(3):306-310

利用全球卫星定位导航系统GPS(GlobalPositioningSystem)的秒脉冲信号PPS(PulsePerSec ond)与高精度时钟电路同步,实现了雷电电磁辐射脉冲测量时的多站同步,解决了因晶体振荡频率漂移造成高精度时钟计数误差的难点,同步精度达到±50ns。文中介绍了该系统的组成及原理,野外的初步观测得到了多站雷电观测的同步资料,证实了该同步系统的可靠性。  相似文献   

Multi-year drought frequency analysis at multiple sites by operational hydrology - A comparison of methods     

Claudio Arena  Mario Rosario Mazzola 《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2006,31(18):1146-1163

This paper compares two generators of yearly water availabilities from sources located at multiple sites with regard to their ability to reproduce the characteristics of historical critical periods and to provide reliable results in terms of the return period of critical sequences of different length. The two models are a novel multi-site Markov mixture model explicitly accounting for drought occurrences and a multivariate ARMA. In the case of the multisite Markov mixture model parameter estimation is limited to a search in the parameter space guided by the value of parameter λ to show the sensitivity of the model to this parameter. Application to two of the longest time series of streamflows available in Sicily (Italy) shows that the models can provide quite different results in terms of estimated return periods of historic droughts, although they seem to perform more uniformly when it comes to simulate drought-related statistics such as drought length, severity and intensity. The role of parameter selection for the multisite Markov mixture model and of the marginal probability of generated flows in providing results consistent with the characteristics of the observed series is discussed. Both models are applied to the system of sources supplying the city of Palermo (Sicily) and its environs showing the applicability of the newly developed multisite Markov mixture model to medium-to-large scale water resources systems.  相似文献   

Short and long memory unobserved components in hydrological time series     

Marcella Corduas  Domenico Piccolo 《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2006,31(18):1099-1106

In this paper a semiparametric approach is introduced to decompose an ARFIMA model in the long memory and short memory unobserved components. The procedure is based on the DECOMEL method which produces a statistical decomposition by minimizing the Euclidean distance between the spectrum of the aggregated series and the sum of the parametric spectra of the components. The extension to long memory stationary models is achieved defining an approximate model where the fractional operator is replaced by the ratio of two polynomials of order one. The feasibility and performance of the proposed procedure are discussed through a case study.  相似文献   

Selection of ground motion time series and limits on scaling   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Jennie Watson-Lamprey  Norman Abrahamson 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2006,26(5):477-482

A procedure to select time series for use in non-linear analyses that are intended to result in an average response of the non-linear system is proposed that is not based simply on magnitude, distance, and spectral shape. A simple model of a yielding system is used as a proxy for the non-linear behavior of a more complicated yielding system. As an example, Newmark displacements are used as a proxy for more complex slope-stability models. The candidate scaled time series are evaluated to find those that yield a response of the simple non-linear system that is near the expected response for the design event. Those scaled time series with responses near the expected value are selected as the optimum time series for defining average response even if the scale factors are larger than commonly accepted (e.g. scale factors >factor of 2).  相似文献   

一种中分辨率遥感影像道路的快速搜索算法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

任志清  尹东 《测绘信息与工程》2006,31(1):15-16

基于动态规划的思想,提出了一种用于中等分辨率遥感影像的道路搜索算法,利用线段代价最小规则进行道路线段跟踪,实验结果表明算法相对简单、快速有效、抗噪性能好。  相似文献   

改进的Prim算法在GIS中的应用   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

杜玲玲 《测绘信息与工程》2006,31(1):28-29

探讨了数字常平基础信息平台建设项目中构建一个低造价通信网的问题,建立了网络模型和相应的存储结构,采用优化的Prim算法实现了这颗最小生成树。  相似文献   

转移概率预报方法在霜冻预报中的应用     

申建华  李月莲  陈清兰  陈勇  张智辉 《山西气象》2006,(4):15-17

本文在简介转移概率预报方法及最大概率预报原理的基础上,分析了吕梁市1957年～2000年霜冻初、终日期各随机时间序列状态之间的转换规律,结合各序列的初始分布,建立预报模型,并对1995年～2004年的初、终霜日期进行了预报效果检验。结果表明,该方法预报效果好,使用性强,具有良好的应用前景。  相似文献