福建省几种气象干旱指数的对比分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

左冰洁  孙玉军 《气象》2019,45(5):685-694

选用合理的干旱指数对干旱进行监测一直是干旱研究的难点之一,对不同指数的适用性进行研究可以为干旱监测提供一定的参考依据。基于1960—2017年福建省气象站的逐日气象观测数据,采用频率累积法对五种干旱指数的阈值进行修正,利用层次分析法计算不同等级干旱事件的权重,结合120个典型历史干旱事件,对降水距平百分率(P_a)、标准化降水指数(SPI)、标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)、相对湿润指数(MI)、改进综合气象干旱指数(CI_(new))在福建省的适用性进行了分析。结果表明:CI_(new)适用于春秋冬季和年际的干旱监测,MI适用于夏秋冬季的干旱监测,这两种指数对重旱和特旱事件的监测效果比较好,SPI和SPEI对中旱和轻旱事件的监测效果比较好。五种指数均能比较好地描述干旱的发展过程,CI_(new)的监测结果更贴合实际,并且较符合干旱发生的机制。因此CI_(new)在福建省的干旱监测中比较适用,MI次之。  相似文献   

土壤水分测量方法适用性综述   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

邵长亮  吴东丽 《气象科技》2019,47(1):1-9

土壤水分是研究土体工程学、农学、地质学、生态学、生物学和水文学等特性的重要参数。不论实验室测量还是现场测量,目前土壤水分的测量方法对不同特性的土壤和不同类型水分含量的适用性仍存在争议。本文对目前已经存在的和新兴的土壤水分观测方法及其优缺点进行归纳,综合评述这些测量方法存在的局限性和特性参数对土壤水分测量的影响。同时,着眼于我国气象部门采用频域反射法原理研制的DZN1、DZN2和DZN3三个型号设备,自2009年开展全国土壤水分自动化观测业务以来,设备运行稳定,测量精度和数据质量基本满足业务与服务需求。最后,本文结合我国观测业务现状,分别为业务建设和精确测量土壤水分提出了参考建议。  相似文献   

四种再分析辐射资料在东南极高原适用性评价          下载免费PDF全文

傅良  卞林根  效存德  丁明虎 《极地研究》2015,27(1):56-64

利用东南极Panda-1站2011年2月至2012年1月期间的辐射观测资料,检验了四种再分析资料在该地区的适用性。结果表明:对各辐射分量ERA interim在Panda-1地区的适用性都明显好于其他三种再分析资料,这主要归因于其四维变分(4D-VAR)数据同化系统的应用、新的云预报方程和改进的参数化方案以及同化了更多的卫星资料雷达等非常规探测资料。对于向下短波辐射,NCEP-1与实测值之间偏差最大(18.7 W·m-2),可能原因是模式对大气透明度的高估和对云量的低估。对反射率模拟的偏差直接导致了各模式对净短波辐射模拟偏差。NCEP-1与JCDAS都低估了Panda-1地区的地表反射率,模式中,地表吸收了更多的向下短波辐射,最终导致对净短波辐射模拟偏高。对向下长波辐射,四种再分析资料都存在不同程度的低估,冬季偏差大于夏季,其中NCEP-1与NCEP-2偏差最大(分别为-62.6 W·m-2和-37.3 W·m-2)。四种再分析资料均不能很好地反映Panda-1地区净辐射的年变化情况,一般而言,夏季偏差小,冬季偏差大。虽然再分析资料存在明显的缺陷和不足,在广袤的东南极高原地区,观测站点稀少,实测资料无法满足需要,再分析资料仍不失为研究东南极地区气候的一种有效工具。  相似文献   

提高分辨率技术适用性评价——以东营凹陷浊积岩为例     

袁海涵 《地质论评》2021,67(Z1):67z1271-67z1272

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Applicability evaluation of the SWIM at river basins of the black soil region in Northeast China: A case study of the upper and middle Wuyuer River basin     

Zhiyuan Yang  Chao Gao  Shuying Zang  Xiuchun Yang 《地理学报(英文版)》2017,27(7):817-834

In this paper, we selected the middle and upper reaches of the Wuyuer River basin in the black soil region of Northeast China as the study area. We adopted the soil and water integrated model (SWIM) and evaluated the parameter sensitivity using partial correlation coefficient. We calibrated and validated our simulation results based on the daily runoff data from Yi’an hydrological station at the outlet of the river basin and the evaporation data recorded by various weather stations from 1961 to 1997. Following evaluation of the modeling data against the observed data, we present the applicability of SWIM in the river basin of the black soil region, and discuss the resulting errors and their probable causes. Results show that in the periods of calibration and validation, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficients of the monthly and daily runoffs were not less than 0.71 and 0.55, and the relative errors were less than 6.0%. Compared to daily runoffs, the simulation result of monthly runoffs was better. Additionally, the NSE coefficients of the potential monthly evaporation were not less than 0.81. Together, the results suggest that the calibrated SWIM can be utilized in various simulation analyses of runoffs on a monthly scale in the black soil region of Northeast China. On the contrary, the model had some limitations in simulating runoffs from snowmelt and frozen soil. Meanwhile, the stimulation data deviated from the measured data largely when applied to the years with spring and summer floods. The simulated annual runoffs were considerably higher than the measured data in the years with abrupt increases in annual precipitation. However, the model is capable of reproducing the changes in runoffs during flood seasons. In summary, this model can provide fundamental hydrological information for comprehensive management of the Wuyuer River basin water environment, and its application can be potentially extended to other river basins in the black soil region.  相似文献   

Evaluation of the applicability of climate forecast system reanalysis weather data for hydrologic simulation: A case study in the Bahe River Basin of the Qinling Mountains,China   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Sheng Hu  Haijun Qiu  Dongdong Yang  Mingming Cao  Jinxi Song  Jiang Wu  Chenlu Huang  Yu Gao 《地理学报(英文版)》2017,27(5):546-564

In recent years, global reanalysis weather data has been widely used in hydrological modeling around the world, but the results of simulations vary greatly. To consider the applicability of Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data in the hydrologic simulation of watersheds, the Bahe River Basin was used as a case study. Two types of weather data (conventional weather data and CFSR weather data) were considered to establish a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, which was used to simulate runoff from 2001 to 2012 in the basin at annual and monthly scales. The effect of both datasets on the simulation was assessed using regression analysis, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Percent Bias (PBIAS). A CFSR weather data correction method was proposed. The main results were as follows. (1) The CFSR climate data was applicable for hydrologic simulation in the Bahe River Basin (R ² of the simulated results above 0.50, NSE above 0.33, and |PBIAS| below 14.8. Although the quality of the CFSR weather data is not perfect, it achieved a satisfactory hydrological simulation after rainfall data correction. (2) The simulated streamflow using the CFSR data was higher than the observed streamflow, which was likely because the estimation of daily rainfall data by CFSR weather data resulted in more rainy days and stronger rainfall intensity than was actually observed. Therefore, the data simulated a higher base flow and flood peak discharge in terms of the water balance, except for some individual years. (3) The relation between the CFSR rainfall data (x) and the observed rainfall data (y) could be represented by a power exponent equation: y=1.4789x ^0.8875 (R ²=0.98, P<0.001). There was a slight variation between the fitted equations for each station. The equation provides a theoretical basis for the correction of CFSR rainfall data.  相似文献   

土体适用MICP技术的渗透特性条件研究     

李贤  汪时机  何丙辉  沈泰宇 《岩土力学》2019,40(8):2956-2964

影响土体适用微生物诱导碳酸钙沉淀（MICP）技术的主要因素有颗粒的有效粒径、孔隙直径、颗粒级配以及水动力学参数等,实际工程土中复杂的孔隙结构难以通过单一的参数来衡定,而土体的渗透性能够综合反映诸多因素。针对分步、低速工艺下的定容量饱和渗透灌浆,提出了在满足土壤颗粒粒径和微生物尺寸相容性的前提下,以渗透系数表征的土体适用MICP技术的条件判断公式;并通过涵盖砂土、粉土、砂质黏性紫色土、膨胀土等9种土（控制粒径 0.040～0.913 mm,初始孔隙率 31.5%～54.9%）的固化试验、渗透试验和强度试验进行了验证。结果表明：结合渗透性折减参数 值的选取（无黏性土 ,黏性土 ）,渗透条件Ⅲ可适用于多种土体;渗透条件Ⅰ适用于MICP技术广为应用的砂土。同时得出了灌浆浆液总量和灌浆总时长的计算公式,为MICP固土技术可行性评估和进一步推广应用提供参考。  相似文献   

综合气象干旱指数在2009～2010年西南干旱的应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李奇临  范广洲  周定文  于树海  欧雅 《成都信息工程学院学报》2012,27(3):267-272

为了研究气象干旱指数对西南干旱的监测状况,及干旱指数在西南地区的适用性,采用了中国气象局提出的气象干旱指数的计算方法,基于综合气象干旱指数,分析2009～2010年西南干旱的时空分布特征与适用性。研究结果表明:干旱事件具有3次逐渐加强和减弱的特征;旱情首先出现于云南东部和贵州中西部,云南中部旱情最重;秋季,相对湿润指数的监测与综合气象干旱指数的监测较为符合;冬季,降水量距平百分率的监测与综合气象干旱指数的监测比较吻合,标准化降水指数所反映的旱情偏重;综合气象干旱指数在旱情随时间的变化过程和空间分布特征方面较好地反映西南地区旱情,但要更准确地进行干旱监测,还需要在蒸散项、降水量权重、各单项系数方面进行修正。  相似文献   

离散选择模型研究进展   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

王灿  王德  朱玮  宋姗 《地理科学进展》2015,34(10):1275-1287

本文从离散选择模型(discrete choice model, DCM)体系的一般原理和应用价值出发,总结了各经典模型的基本理论和典型应用,并概括了近来年一些重要的研究新动向。多项Logit模型(multinomial logit model, MNL)是离散选择模型体系的基础,具有简洁、可靠、易实现等优点,但也存在固有的理论缺陷,由此产生了对更加精细化模型的需求。替代的精细化模型中,嵌套Logit模型(nested logit model, NL)常用于处理备选项相关、“都不选”备选项、数据合并等问题,一般极值模型(generalized extreme value model, GEV)体系是其更一般的形式;混合Logit模型(mixed logit model, MXL)可用于解决随机偏好问题和多种相关问题,包括备选项相关、面版数据相关、随机系数相关、数据合并等,与之类似的潜在类别模型也有着广泛应用;多项Probit模型(multinomial probit model, MNP)具有极高的灵活性,但其复杂的模型设定与庞大的运算量大大制约了其应用范围。本文在研究新动向上介绍了4个重要的研究关注点：由多种经典模型形式相结合而成的复杂模型;面向RP/SP数据、定序、排序、多选等不同数据类型的适宜模型;基于各种受限理性选择策略的更为真实的模型;以及考虑选择的时空背景的模型。  相似文献   

GPM反演降水数据IMERG在浙江省的适用性研究          下载免费PDF全文

郑倩  顾振海  马依依  龚理卿  王健疆 《中低纬山地气象》2024,48(1):62-69

【目的】为了研究全球降水测量计划（GPM）综合多卫星检索降水产品（IMERG）在浙江省的适用性。【方法】以浙江省为研究区域,基于浙江省自动观测站降水数据,利用相关系数、均方根误差、相对偏差、分类指数统计法分别从年尺度、季尺度、月尺度、日尺度以及小时尺度GPM在浙江省的适用性。【结果】（1）春、秋、冬季的GPM和自动站对应效果远好于夏季,月尺度、日尺度、小时尺度下GPM和自动站降水数据对应效果较好,但整体上存在高值区略低估、低值区略高估现象;（2）年尺度与季尺度下GPM与自动站降水平均值的变化趋势一致,但GPM降水平均值较高,其中秋季表现最好;（3）年、月、日3个尺度下,尺度越精细化,相关系数越高、相对偏差越小,均方根误差越小;小时、日、月3个尺度下,降水阈值越低,产品尺度越粗糙,估测能力越高;降水阈值越低,产品尺度越精细,误报降水的比例越低;降水阈值越低,综合探测能力越高;（4）在小时尺度下,在0.5~1 mm·h-1区间,GPM虽然对降水事件略有高估,但拟合效果较好。【结论】综合来看,GPM日尺度降水数据产品精度在浙江省有较大应用潜力。  相似文献