西北太平洋热带气旋路径时间标度律的研究     

肖天贵 《南京气象学院学报》1995,18(3):444-449

时间标度计算表明，西北太平洋热带气旋路径是一个无标度性的系统，其关联方差谱遵从频率的－２￣－３次方幂律，不同背景下的路径系统均如此。由此得到的不同季节、不同地域的热带气旋路径可预报时间尺度基本上为３￣４ｄ，但异常热带气旋路径的可预报时间尺度则为１￣２ｄ。  相似文献   

On estimating frequency-magnitude relations from heterogeneous catalogs     

Stefano Tinti  Rossella Rimondi  Francesco Mulargia 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1987,125(1):1-18

The paper studies the effect of magnitude errors on heterogeneous catalogs, by applying the apparent magnitude theory (seeTinti andMulargia, 1985a), which proves to be the most natural and rigorous approach to the problem. Heterogeneities in seismic catalogs are due to a number of various sources and affect both instrumental as well as noninstrumental earthquake compilations.The most frequent basis of heterogeneity is certainly that the recent instrumental records are to be combined with the historic and prehistoric event listings to secure a time coverage, considerably longer than the recurrence time of the major earthquakes. Therefore the case which attracts the greatest attention in the present analysis is that of a catalog consisting of a subset of higher quality data, generallyS ₁, spanning the interval T ₁ (the instrumental catalog), and of a second subset of more uncertain magnitude determination, generallyS ₂, covering a vastly longer interval T ₂ (the historic and/or the geologic catalog). The magnitude threshold of the subcatalogS ₁ is supposedly smaller than that ofS ₂, which, as we will see, is one of the major causes of discrepancy between the apparent magnitude and the true magnitude distributions. We will further suppose that true magnitude occurrences conform to theGutenberg-Richter (GR) law, because the assumption simplified the analysis without reducing the relevancy of our findings.The main results are: 1) the apparent occurrence rate exceeds the true occurrence rate from a certain magnitude onward, saym _GR; 2) the apparent occurrence rate shows two distinct GR regimes separated by an intermediate transition region. The offset between the two regimes is the essential outcome ofS ₁ being heterogeneous with respect toS ₂. The most important consequences of this study are that: 1) it provides a basis to infer the parameters of the true magnitude distribution, by correcting the bias deriving from heterogeneous magnitude errors; 2) it demonstrates that the double GR decay, that several authors have taken as the incontestable proof of the failure of the GR law and of the experimental evidence of the characteristic earthquake theory, is instead perfectly consistent with a GR-type seismicity.  相似文献   

Numerical Modeling of the Ston-Slano (Croatia) Aftershock Sequence     

Herak  Marijan  Herak  Davorka  Markušić  Snježana  Ivančić  Ines 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2001,45(3):251-266

The rate of aftershock occurrence after the M6 Ston-Slano (Croatia) earthquake is modeled as the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS). Increase of the modeled cumulative number of aftershocks with time was fitted to observations by the least-squares criterion using the combined grid-search and Monte-Carlo approach. This enabled not only the estimation of the most probable ETAS parameters, but also the determination of their confidence limits, as well as the estimation of the bias between them. It has been found that the bias is significant for some of the parameter pairs, regardless of the threshold magnitude assumed. Residual analyses revealed that all strong aftershocks (M _L 4.5) occurred during the periods of normal to high aftershock activity. There were two periods of quiescence in the sequence, both of which were followed by a strong aftershock.  相似文献   

把握新机遇实现新发展为实现我局"十五"改革发展目标任务而努力奋斗     

宋祥文 《福建地质》2001,20(2):57-69

这次会议是进入新世纪我局第一次工作会议,是一次总结过去,谋划未来的重要会议,开好这次会议对我局在新世纪实现新发展有着十分重要的意义.会议的主要内容是认真学习温家宝副总理的重要讲话精神,总结回顾"九五"地矿工作改革发展的基本情况,讨论修改我局"十五"改革发展纲要、"十五"前三年经济责任制考核办法和精神文明建设考核办法,安排部署2001年工作.下面我代表局党组作工作报告.  相似文献   

地质找矿过程中如何提高物探工作质量   总被引：5，自引：5，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

高淑芳  崔军 《地球物理学进展》2005,20(1):97-103

本文从六个方面讨论了在地质找矿工作中如何提高物探工作质量，更好地发挥物探作用.这些问题均为作者在多年野外工作中遇到后加以总结.这六方面内容为：测网敷设，物探数据的观测及室内整理，资料成图，岩矿石标本的物性测定，物探工作方法选择，成果解释.  相似文献   

The Privatization of the Oceans by Rognvaldur Hannesson     

Henry Frew 《The Professional geographer》2007,59(1):156-156

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谈网络环境下图书情报工作     

马凤霞 《山西地震》2007,(4):43-44

文中提出了在网络环境下要逐步实现图书情报的信息化、标准化、自动化和专业化。同时,图书情报工作人员要转变观念,树立新的服务理念,发挥图书情报在地震事业中的作用。  相似文献   

Physics of basic motions in asymmetric continuum     

Roman Teisseyre  Marek Górski 《Acta Geophysica》2007,55(2):119-132

We consider the advantages of a formalism based on concept of the asymmetric continuum and we present some equivalence theorems relating it to the asymmetric elasticity and to micropolar and micromorphic theories as founded by Nowacki, Cosserats and Eringen. We consider the basic processes in an asymmetric continuum which could be reduced to the point basic motions/deformations. The co-action of spin and shear motions is assumed to play the main role in fracturing process, while the constitutive relation between the antisymmetric stresses and rotations replaces the friction constitutive law.  相似文献   

现代科技与现代地名工作     

王际桐 《测绘科学》2002,27(1):11-14

主要论述了与地名相关的地球信息科学、数字地球、地理信息系统、数字地图与电子地图等现代科技的发展及利用现代科技进行地堍用字和读音规范、地名信息系统、地名标志、地名技术规范、地名科研与管理等现代化地名工作问题。  相似文献   

我国春玉米水分供需状况分析   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4  

李应林  高素华 《气象》2002,28(2):29-33

论述了作物需水量的概念及其计算方法，利用最新的气候和作物资料，计算了我国春玉米的作物需水量，分析其时空分布特征，并利用水发订正系来评价春玉米需水量的满足程度。计算分析结果表明，气候条件对我国在玉米生产是有利的，但在播种期、出苗期及拔节期（4－6月份），存在明显的水亏缺现象，这一时期应采取相应的栽培技术及节水灌溉、人工增雨等措施来缓解旱情。  相似文献