Different Asian Monsoon Rainfall Responses to Idealized Orography Sensitivity Experiments in the HadGEM3-GA6 and FGOALS-FAMIL Global Climate Models     

Kai Chi WONG  Senfeng LIU  Andrew G.TURNER  Reinhard K.SCHIEMANN 《大气科学进展》2018,35(8):1049-1062

Recent work has shown the dominance of the Himalaya in supporting the Indian summer monsoon(ISM),perhaps by surface sensible heating along its southern slope and by mechanical blocking acting to separate moist tropical flow from drier midlatitude air.Previous studies have also shown that Indian summer rainfall is largely unaffected in sensitivity experiments that remove only the Tibetan Plateau.However,given the large biases in simulating the monsoon in CMIP5 models,such results may be model dependent.This study investigates the impact of orographic forcing from the Tibetan Plateau,Himalaya and Iranian Plateau on the ISM and East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) in the UK Met Office's Had GEM3-GA6 and China's Institute of Atmospheric Physics FGOALS-FAMIL global climate models.The models chosen feature oppositesigned biases in their simulation of the ISM rainfall and circulation climatology.The changes to ISM and EASM circulation across the sensitivity experiments are similar in both models and consistent with previous studies.However,considerable differences exist in the rainfall responses over India and China,and in the detailed aspects such as onset and retreat dates.In particular,the models show opposing changes in Indian monsoon rainfall when the Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau orography are removed.Our results show that a multi-model approach,as suggested in the forthcoming Global Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project(GMMIP) associated with CMIP6,is needed to clarify the impact of orographic forcing on the Asian monsoon and to fully understand the implications of model systematic error.  相似文献   

MC-ICP-MS高精度Cu、Zn同位素测试技术   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

侯可军  李延河  田有荣  秦燕  谢桂青 《矿床地质》2008,27(6):774-781

过渡族元素同位素是国际上同位素地球化学研究的热点。测试技术的限制是制约过渡元素同位素研究发展的关键。笔者利用Neptune型多接收等离子质谱(MC-ICP-MS),采用Cu、Zn互为内标的方法对仪器的质量歧视进行了校正,对基质效应和测试方法的重现性进行了检验,建立了高精度的Cu、Zn同位素测试技术。在5个月内对实验室标准IMRCu和IMRZn进行了测量,结果分别为δ65CuNIST976=(0.34±0.08)‰(2SD,n=32),δ66ZnJMCZn=(-9.64±0.05)‰(2SD,n=26),δ67ZnJMCZn=(-14.37±0.16)‰(2SD,n=26),δ68ZnJMCZn=(-19.01±0.08)‰(2SD,n=26),分析精度达到国际同类实验室先进水平。对Cu、Zn同位素参考物质进行了对比测量,分析结果与报道值在误差范围内完全一致。  相似文献   

Quantifying sample bias in clast fabric measurements     

DAVID M. CHANDLER  BRYN HUBBARD 《Sedimentology》2008,55(4):925-938

Sampling elongate clasts that protrude from a planar face for clast macro‐fabric analysis introduces a bias into reconstructed fabrics because clasts aligned perpendicular to the sampling face are over‐represented relative to those aligned parallel to the face. This study develops a probability‐based mathematical analysis to quantify sample bias for a variety of clast shapes and population fabrics, including isotropic, clustered and girdled fabric styles. Bias is expressed in terms of sample eigenvalues and eigenvectors relative to those of the parent population. Results indicate that sampling always has the effect of artificially drawing fabrics towards perpendicularity to the sampling face relative to the populations from which they are drawn. This rotation generally has the effect of artificially strengthening population fabrics, by up to 30% in the case of very weakly clustered or girdled populations. However, fabric strengthening is by no means universal and sampling alters different parent populations in different, sometimes complex, ways: the analysis in this paper identifies situations where sampling can strengthen or weaken parent fabrics, where it can rotate parent fabrics (by up to 90° in the case of a very weak population fabric), and where it can even change the style of a population fabric. For example, near‐isotropic population fabrics can appear clustered; weakly clustered and weakly girdled population fabrics can appear isotropic; weakly clustered population fabrics can appear weakly girdled; and girdled population fabrics can appear clustered. Overall, this analysis indicates that weakly orientated population fabrics are most susceptible to bias. Thus, a weakly clustered population fabric aligned parallel to a sample face is particularly susceptible to major sample bias in both fabric strength (artificially overestimated) and orientation (artificially rotated perpendicular to the face). Bias can be reduced either by sampling all the clasts from a cube‐shaped block of sediment excavated from the face, or by sampling equal numbers of clasts from the three orthogonal faces of the same sedimentary unit.  相似文献   

窄巷FCB估计方法改进及时变特性分析     

李林阳  崔阳  王宇谱  吕志平 《测绘学报》2017,46(1):34-43

窄巷波长相对较短,受观测数据质量和未模型化误差的影响较大,导致参考站计算的窄巷FCB估值的互差较大,窄巷FCB稳定性较差。针对窄巷FCB估值出现较大偏差的参考站,本文提出了基于抗差初值的窄巷FCB抗差估计方法,该方法取当前历元所有参考站窄巷FCB估值的中位数作为抗差初值,采用IGGⅢ方案降低了有偏差的窄巷FCB估值的权比。采用IGS全球跟踪站网的数据进行验证,改进的方法提高了窄巷FCB的精度和稳定性,采用每天估计的一组卫星端的窄巷FCB即可满足窄巷模糊度固定的精度要求。同时,采用本文改进方法估计的窄巷FCB,可以提高用户端仿动态单天解的窄巷模糊度固定成功率和定位精度。  相似文献   

顾及截断偏差影响的TSVD截断参数确定方法     

林东方  朱建军  宋迎春 《测绘学报》2017,46(6):679-688

TSVD通过截断参数截掉较小的奇异值来改善病态性对估计的影响,其本质是通过引入少量偏差来降低方差,以提高估值的稳定性和可靠性。截断参数是影响TSVD解算效果的关键因素,常用的广义交叉核实法(GCV法)和L曲线法未从TSVD改善模型参数估值质量的角度确定截断参数,稳定性和可靠性不足,而最小MSE法理论依据充分但受限于MSE计算的准确性。通过分析TSVD由小到大截掉奇异值后,相应的估值方差与偏差变化,本文提出了引入偏差量小于降低方差量来确定截断参数的思想,并通过估计出较大奇异值截掉后的偏差引入量建立偏差估值可信区间,利用可信区间内偏差估值与方差下降量进行比较,避免较小奇异值截掉后的方差下降量与偏差引入量的直接比较,从而解决参数真值未知截掉较小奇异值引入偏差量难以准确计算的问题。最后通过试验验证了新方法的可行性和有效性,相比于GCV法和L曲线法,新方法确定的截断参数稳定性和可靠性更高,可有效提高TSVD的解算效果。  相似文献   

Where can pixel counting area estimates meet user-defined accuracy requirements?     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2017

Pixel counting is probably the most popular way to estimate class areas from satellite-derived maps. It involves determining the number of pixels allocated to a specific thematic class and multiplying it by the pixel area. In the presence of asymmetric classification errors, the pixel counting estimator is biased. The overarching objective of this article is to define the applicability conditions of pixel counting so that the estimates are below a user-defined accuracy target. By reasoning in terms of landscape fragmentation and spatial resolution, the proposed framework decouples the resolution bias and the classifier bias from the overall classification bias. The consequence is that prior to any classification, part of the tolerated bias is already committed due to the choice of the spatial resolution of the imagery. How much classification bias is affordable depends on the joint interaction of spatial resolution and fragmentation. The method was implemented over South Africa for cropland mapping, demonstrating its operational applicability. Particular attention was paid to modeling a realistic sensor's spatial response by explicitly accounting for the effect of its point spread function. The diagnostic capabilities offered by this framework have multiple potential domains of application such as guiding users in their choice of imagery and providing guidelines for space agencies to elaborate the design specifications of future instruments.  相似文献   

区域海气耦合模式FROALS的发展及其应用     

周天军  邹立维  韩振宇  刘博  姚隽琛 《大气科学》2016,40(1):86-101

区域海气耦合模式是研究局地海气相互作用过程影响气候变率的重要平台,也是对全球气候模式进行"动力降尺度"的重要工具.本文介绍了LASG(State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics)/IAP(Institute of Atmospheric Physics)发展的区域海气耦合模式FROALS(Flexible Regional Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model),并总结了过去五年围绕该区域海气耦合模式开展的研究工 作.FROALS的特点之一是有两个完全不同的大气模式分量和海洋模式分量选项,可以适应不同的模拟研究需 求.针对区域海气耦合模式在西北太平洋地区的模拟偏差,通过分步骤考察不同大气模式分量和不同海洋模式分量对模式模拟性能的影响,指出大气模式是导致区域海气耦合偏差的主要分量.通过改进对流触发的相对湿度阈值标准,有效地改善了此前区域海气耦合模式在亚洲季风区普遍出现的"模拟海温冷偏差".改进的FROALS对西北太平洋地区的大气和海洋环境有较好的模拟能力,合理地再现了西北太平洋地区表层洋流气候态和年际变率.较之非耦合模式,考虑区域海气耦合过程后,改进了东亚和南亚地区的降水和热带气旋潜势年际变率的模拟.最后,针对东亚—西北太平洋地区,利用FROALS对IAP/LASG全球气候模式模拟和预估的结果进行了动力降尺 度,得到了东亚区域50 km高分辨率区域气候变化信息.分析显示,FROALS模拟得到的东亚区域气候较之全球气候模式和非耦合区域气候模式结果具有明显的"增值",显示出区域海气耦合模式在该区域良好的应用前景.  相似文献   

微波湿度计资料在GRAPES模式中偏差订正方法研究          下载免费PDF全文

李刚  曲美慧  张华 《大气科学学报》2016,39(5):653-660

根据微波湿度计MHS(Microwave Humidity Sounder)辐射率资料及GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System)模式的特点,建立适用于MHS资料的偏差订正系统,该系统包括扫描和气团偏差订正,其中气团偏差订正考虑水汽资料的特性,采用三种不同预报因子组合的方案。偏差订正结果表明:MHS各个通道的扫描偏差表现出不同特征;偏差订正后观测残差基本服从均值为零的高斯分布,且观测残差的均值有所降低并随时间变化平稳;三种气团偏差订正方案都有明显的订正效果,其中方案三的订正效果最佳。  相似文献   

基于现场观测资料的卫星海表盐度网格化产品误差分析与质量评估     

鲍森亮  张韧  王辉赞  王公杰  张明 《海洋学报》2016,38(5):34-45

自欧洲土壤湿度和盐度卫星SMOS和美国宝瓶座盐度卫星Aquarius相继发射之后,多个数据中心发布了两颗卫星的海表盐度网格化产品,其中包括法国海洋研究院SMOS卫星数据小组发布SMOS Locean L3盐度产品、西班牙巴塞罗那专家中心发布SMOS BEC L4盐度产品和美国宇航局喷气动力实验室发布AquariusV3.0 CAP L3盐度产品。本文利用精确盐度现场观测资料从产品精度和模拟海洋现象能力两个方面对以上3种产品质量进行了评估。研究表明:(1) 在精度方面,与盐度现场资料相比,Aquarius CAP 产品质量最高,产品盐度偏差和均方根误差全年稳定且偏差较小,部分海域达到了设计精度;SMOS两种卫星产品在全球海域偏差较不稳定,个别月份出现异常偏差值;SMOS产品在低纬和开阔海域的数据质量相对较高,但在高纬海域仍存在较大误差,需要进一步提升;(2) 在刻画海洋现象方面,Aquarius产品在热带太平洋较好刻画了淡池东缘盐度锋,SMOS BEC产品的刻画能力次之,SMOS Locean产品在热带太平洋充满了小尺度噪音,描述物理现象方面表现偏差。  相似文献   

基于ELM的风电场短期风速订正技术研究     

张颖超  肖寅  邓华 《气象》2016,42(4):466-471

风速预测是风电场风功率预测的基础,其准确度严重影响着风电场的运行效率。为了提高短期风速预测的准确性,本研究采用了WRF中尺度数值模式,对我国东部沿海某风电场的风速进行预报。在此基础上,利用极限学习机算法(ELM)对WRF模式预报的风速进一步订正。实验结果表明,WRF模式对风速、风向等气象要素有着较好的回报效果,利用ELM算法对WRF模式预报风速进行订正后,预报风速的误差进一步减小,相对均方根误差和相对平均绝对误差降低了20%～30%。与其他的智能算法(BP神经网络、SVM算法)对比分析后得出,ELM算法对WRF模式预报风速具有较好的订正效果,能够有效提高风速预报准确率。  相似文献