Estimation for partially observed Markov processes     

M. E. Thompson  T. N. Kaseke 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1995,9(1):33-47

Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (X_n, n 0) or (X_t, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Y_n, n 0) or (Y_t, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.  相似文献   

我国藻菌生物成因的金矿研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

帅德权  胡晓强 《黄金地质》1995,1(2):1-8

生物成矿作用分为生物直接成矿作用和生物间接成矿作用,生物直接成矿作用的标志结构为生物有机胶体结构。生物间接成矿作用的标志结构为“矿交代生物”结构,我国陕西二台子－半仓沟金矿,四川东北寨金矿、川甘拉尔玛金矿和云南金厂金矿等均为典型为实例,矿石中普遍含有多种金属矿物生物结构,还含多种生物有机组分。成矿物质具有多源性特征,硫同位素具混合型特征,矿床成型机制可与“人工碳吸附系统”聚金机制相类比,含金层位可  相似文献   

Possible ways to decipher spatial distribution of mineral resources     

V. Nemec 《Mathematical Geology》1992,24(6):705-709

Regularity of structural patterns can be connected to planetary disjunctive systems (paleosystems). A computerized universal model of these systems should be developed that may be helpful to predict unknown localities of mineral resources controlled by tectonic processes. The specific character of tectonic phenomena is to be respected in geomathematical models. Some suggestions for applications are given.  相似文献   

成都城市发展对热岛强度影响的主成份回归分析     

石凤云  唐佑民 《成都信息工程学院学报》1991,(Z1)

本文对成都市总人口、建成区面积等11个因子、作了主成份回归L-S估计和M-估计,讨论了成都城市发展对“热岛”强度的主要影响因子。结果表明,城区房屋建筑面积及总人口数是影响城市气候(气温)的主要因子,其次为城市人口总户数、建成面积等。 文中,对回归方程进行了拟合计算,回归效果比较满意(尤其是稳健回归)。  相似文献   

Comparison of structural and least-squares lines for estimating geologic relations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Garnett P. Williams  Brent M. Troutman 《Mathematical Geology》1990,22(8):1027-1049

Two different goals in fitting straight lines to data are to estimate a true linear relation (physical law) and to predict values of the dependent variable with the smallest possible error. Regarding the first goal, a Monte Carlo study indicated that the structural-analysis (SA) method of fitting straight lines to data is superior to the ordinary least-squares (OLS) method for estimating true straight-line relations. Number of data points, slope and intercept of the true relation, and variances of the errors associated with the independent (X) and dependent (Y) variables influence the degree of agreement. For example, differences between the two line-fitting methods decrease as error in X becomes small relative to error in Y. Regarding the second goal—predicting the dependent variable—OLS is better than SA. Again, the difference diminishes as X takes on less error relative to Y. With respect to estimation of slope and intercept and prediction of Y, agreement between Monte Carlo results and large-sample theory was very good for sample sizes of 100, and fair to good for sample sizes of 20. The procedures and error measures are illustrated with two geologic examples.  相似文献   

Catalytic ozonation of phenol in water with natural brucite and magnesia     

Kun HE Yuming DONG Lin YIN Aiming ZHANG Zhen LI 《中国地球化学学报》2006,25(B08):101-101

Catalytic ozonation has attracted much attention in treatment of wastewater for its mild conditions. Phenol and its ramifications are common components in a wide variety of wastewaters including those from coal conversion processes, coking plants, petroleum refineries and several chemical industries. In this paper, natural brucite and magnesia have been successfully used in catalytic ozonation of phenol. And the mechanisms of catalysis were also investigated. From Figs. 1 and 2, it can be found that both brucite and magnesia have remarkable catalysis on degradation of phenol and removal of Chemical Oxygen Demand （COD）. The pH of solutions on the process of ozonation alone, catalytic ozonation with brucites and with magnesia were 6.35-2.76, 10.18-8.52 and 10.58-10.83, respectively. It can be concluded that alkali environment plays a critical role for catalytic ozonation of phenol. We also found that the alkaline minerals reacted on the surface with oxalic acid and other low molecular-weight acids which are intermediate products in ozonation, but those intermediate products could be mineralized into carbon dioxide completely with enough ozonation time.  相似文献   

Reservoir description using dynamic parameterisation selection with a combined stochastic and gradient search     

Lars Kristian Nielsen  Sam Subbey  Mike Christie  Trond Mannseth 《Computational Geosciences》2006,10(3):321-342

There is a correspondence between flow in a reservoir and large scale permeability trends. This correspondence can be derived by constraining reservoir models using observed production data. One of the challenges in deriving the permeability distribution of a field using production data involves determination of the scale of resolution of the permeability. The Adaptive Multiscale Estimation (AME) seeks to overcome the problems related to choosing the resolution of the permeability field by a dynamic parameterisation selection. The standard AME uses a gradient algorithm in solving several optimisation problems with increasing permeability resolution. This paper presents a hybrid algorithm which combines a gradient search and a stochastic algorithm to improve the robustness of the dynamic parameterisation selection. At low dimension, we use the stochastic algorithm to generate several optimised models. We use information from all these produced models to find new optimal refinements, and start out new optimisations with several unequally suggested parameterisations. At higher dimensions we change to a gradient-type optimiser, where the initial solution is chosen from the ensemble of models suggested by the stochastic algorithm. The selection is based on a predefined criterion. We demonstrate the robustness of the hybrid algorithm on sample synthetic cases, which most of them were considered insolvable using the standard AME algorithm.  相似文献   

四川盆地地下卤水资源优势及综合开发前景   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

林耀庭 《盐湖研究》2006,14(4):1-8

四川盆地地下卤水自震旦系至白垩系各层系皆有分布。卤水具有分布广泛、资源丰富、品质优异、高承压及气卤同产等优势特点,是四川得天独厚的液态矿产资源。卤水中含有K+、Br-I、-、B3+、Li+、Sr2+、Rb+等多种有用组分,皆为国家紧缺和紧俏物质,其含量多数可达工业开采品位,为优质化工原料水,经济价值极高,综合开发利用前景广阔。  相似文献   

Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98     

Jochen Schwarz  Mathias Raschke  Holger Maiwald 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):259-282

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.  相似文献   

T -distributed Random Fields: A Parametric Model for Heavy-tailedWell-log Data1     

Jo R?islien  Henning Omre 《Mathematical Geology》2006,38(7):821-849

Histograms of observations from spatial phenomena are often found to be more heavy-tailed than Gaussian distributions, which makes the Gaussian random field model unsuited. A T-distributed random field model with heavy-tailed marginal probability density functions is defined. The model is a generalization of the familiar Student-T distribution, and it may be given a Bayesian interpretation. The increased variability appears cross-realizations, contrary to in-realizations, since all realizations are Gaussian-like with varying variance between realizations. The T-distributed random field model is analytically tractable and the conditional model is developed, which provides algorithms for conditional simulation and prediction, so-called T-kriging. The model compares favourably with most previously defined random field models. The Gaussian random field model appears as a special, limiting case of the T-distributed random field model. The model is particularly useful whenever multiple, sparsely sampled realizations of the random field are available, and is clearly favourable to the Gaussian model in this case. The properties of the T-distributed random field model is demonstrated on well log observations from the Gullfaks field in the North Sea. The predictions correspond to traditional kriging predictions, while the associated prediction variances are more representative, as they are layer specific and include uncertainty caused by using variance estimates.  相似文献