太湖蒸发量对未来气候变化响应的初步模拟分析     

郝晓龙  王咏薇  高雅琦  张圳  王伟 《气象科学》2020,40(4):505-512

与深水湖泊相比,太湖等浅水湖泊更容易发生富营养化和水资源危机,且对气候变化的响应更为敏锐。本文利用气候模式产品数据驱动CLM4-LISSS湖泊陆面过程模型,模拟分析未来(2010—2100年)RCP2.6、RCP4.5、以及RCP8.5不同温室气体排放情景下太湖蒸发量的变化特征及其影响因子。结果表明:(1)CLM4-LISSS模型湖表温度的观测值与模拟值的相关系数为0.94,均方根误差为0.85℃,准确的湖表气温模拟使得通量的结果也比较准确,潜热模拟与观测的相关系数在0.78,均方根误差为55.32 W·m~(-2);(2)2010—2100年,三种不同温室气体排放情景下太湖蒸发都呈现增加的趋势,但增量比例不同,RCP2.6,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,蒸发量每10 a增加量分别为23.7 mm,29.2 mm和34.5 mm。蒸发量的增加速率随着辐射强迫的增加而增大,其变化主要受风速与水汽压差的乘积的影响。  相似文献   

五莲坤山透辉岩矿地质特征          下载免费PDF全文

朱杰  朱红梅  刘俊玉  刘先荣 《山东国土资源》2004,20(1):42-46

五莲县坤山透辉岩矿赋存于古元古代粉子山群张格庄组第三岩性段下部白云石大理岩层中,有水西何子和院上2个矿段,每个矿段由2个似层状矿体组成。矿体长154～264m,厚5.68～17.57m,矿体产状稳定。顶、底板围岩岩性均为白云石大理岩,2矿层间隔4～6m。透辉岩矿矿石特征与平度、莱西等地古元古代荆山群野头组赋存的透辉岩矿相似,矿石中化学成分变化稳定,Fe2O3含量普遍较低,矿石质量好,物化性能稳定,适于用做陶瓷原料。五莲县坤山透辉岩矿为严格受地层层位控制的变质沉积型矿床。  相似文献   

济阳拗陷内王判镇潜山带奥陶系成藏条件分析          下载免费PDF全文

姚金志  邴尧忠  邓美寅  马光强 《山东国土资源》2003,19(Z1):85-89

王判镇潜山带发育白桥、任凤、王判镇3条深大断裂,自北向南分为Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ排山,奥陶系圈闭形成时间早于石炭—二叠纪二次生气运聚期。该区火山活动频繁,火成岩广布。奥陶系储集条件好。济阳地堑和曲堤地垒二次生气中心的煤成气对本区贡献不大。Ⅰ,Ⅱ排山中—东北部也为煤成气二次生气中心,具备煤成气气源条件,石炭—二叠系泥岩和铝土质泥岩、灰岩为优质的盖层,是寻找煤成气及其与幔源气混源气的有利场所。Ⅲ排山不具备煤成气气源条件,而具备幔源气气源条件,是寻找幔源气的有利场所。  相似文献   

BOOK REVIEWS     

《The Professional geographer》1983,35(4):488-524

Book Reviewed in this article: Main Street: Northeastern Oregon: The Founding and Development of Small Towns . Barbara Ruth Bailey . Food Politics: The Regional Conflict . David N. Balaam and Michael J. Carey , eds. The International Economy and Industrial Development: Trade and Investment in the Third World . R. Ballance , J. Ansari and H. Singer . Neighborhoods in Urban America . Ronald H. Bayor , ed. The English Heartland . By Robert Beckinsale and Monica Beckinsale . Regional Dimensions of Industrial Policy . Michael E. Bell and Paul S. Lande , eds. Tension Areas of the World . D. Gordon Bennett , ed. Latin America: an Introductory Survey . B. W. Blouet and O. M. Blouet , eds. Integration and Division: Geographical Perspectives on the Northern Ireland Problem . Frederick W. Boal and J. Neville H. Douglas , eds. Energy and Land Use . Robert W. Burchell and David Listokin , eds. Slopes and Weathering . Michael Clarke and John Small . Alaska's Rural Development . Peter G. Cornwall and Gerald Mc Beath , eds. The Politics of Park Design: A History of Urban Parks in America . Galen Cranz . World Congress on Land Policy, 1980, Proceedings . Matthew Cullen and Sharon Woolery , eds. Oregon Divided: A Regional Geography . Samuel N. Dicken and Emily F. Dicken . Urban Food Marketing and Third World Rural Development . T. Scarlett Epstein . South Africa: Spatial Frameworks for Development . T. J. D. Fair . Institutions and Geographical Patterns . Robin Flowerdew , ed. Industrialization of U.S. Agriculture, An Interpretive Atlas . Howard F. Gregor . Planning Theory: Prospects for the 1980s . Patsy Healy , Glen Mc Dougall and Michael J. Thomas , eds. Neighborhood Mobilization: Redevelopment and Response . Jeffrey R. Henig . The American Urban System: A Geographical Perspective . R. J. Johnston . Climate, History and the Modern World . Hubert H. Lamb . Climate and History: Studies in Past Climates and Their Impact on Man . T. M. L. Wigley , M. J. Ingram and G. Farmer . China: Railways and Agricultural Development, 1875–1935 . Ernest P. Liang . A Desirable Energy Future—A National Perspective . Robert S. Livingston , T. D. Anderson , T. M. Besmann , M. Olszewski , A. M. Perry , and C. D. West . Topothesia: Essays Presented to T. S. Ó Máille . B. S. Mac Aodha , ed. Transportation for the Poor: Research in Rural Mobility . Hal S. Maggied . Land Uses in American Cities . Harold M. Mayer and Charles R. Haves . Industrial Organisation and Location . Philip Mc Dermott and Michael Taylor . Human Adaptability: an Introduction to Ecological Anthropology . Emilio F. Moran . Regional Analysis and the New International Division of Labor . Frank Moulaert and Patricia W. Salinas , eds. The Nuclear War Atlas. Victoriaville, Quebec, Canada : Urbanization and Environmental Quality . Isao Orishimo . The Garden of Eden: The Botanic Garden and the Re-Creation of Paradise . John Prest . Earthfire, The Eruption of Mount St. Helens . Charles Rosenfeld and Robert Cooke . Contest for the South China Sea . Marwyn S. Samuels . The Future of the Wetlands: Assessing Visual-Cultural Values . Richard C. Smardon , ed. Tucson: the Life and Times of An American City. C. L. Sonnichsen . The Geography of Multinationals . Michael Taylor and Nigel Thrift , eds. Impact of Marine Pollution on Society . Virginia Tippie and Dana Kester . Reviving the Industrial City: the Politics of Urban Renewal in Lyon and Birmingham . Jerry A. Webman . Andean Reflections: Letters from Carl O. Sauer While on a South American Trip under a Grant from the Rockefeller Foundation, 1942 . Robert C. West , ed. Cartographic Drawing with Computers . P. Yoeli .  相似文献   

山东临朐陶家庄白垩矿地质特征          下载免费PDF全文

景晓东  张诚  马金诚  王富花 《山东国土资源》2004,20(2):41-44

山东临朐白垩矿赋存于新近纪临朐群山旺组中，矿体呈层状产出，倾斜平缓，东南薄、西北厚，平均厚度17．36m，厚度和品位变化稳定。在矿区北部，矿体内发育有玄武岩夹层，呈舌状近水平产出，约4～12m厚。矿床形成于新生代山旺期湖相盆地中，为化学和生物化学作用沉积形成。矿体底板为牛山组气孔一杏仁状玄武岩，其顶板为尧山组橄榄玄武岩。因长期风化剥蚀作用，大部分矿体的顶板已剥蚀掉，第四系黄土直接覆盖在矿体顶部。  相似文献   

基于地理大数据和多源信息融合的区域未来人口精细化空间分布模拟研究——以珠江三角洲为例     

何艳虎  龚镇杰  林凯荣 《地理科学》2022,42(3):426-435

首先采用队列因素法和CA-Markov模型对区域未来人口规模和土地利用格局进行模拟预测,并结合POI地理大数据,利用多源信息融合法构建区域未来人口精细化空间分布模拟模型,以珠江三角洲城市群2030年各区县精细化的人口空间分布预测进行实证分析。结果表明：① 采用队列因素法进行珠江三角洲各区县人口规模预测的相对误差大部分在5%以下,基于CA-Markov模型土地利用模拟的Kappa系数达到0.97;② 珠江三角洲城市群精细化的人口空间分布模拟数据与实际人口数据的拟合趋势线R²达到了0.90,模拟效果优于Worldpop数据集,体现了POI地理大数据与多源信息融合在精细化人口空间分布模拟上的优势;③ 珠江三角洲未来人口呈现由中心向外围扩散和递减的空间分布格局,空间差异显著且较为稳定,70%的人口集中在广州、深圳、东莞和佛山等核心城市。  相似文献   

论南海海洋治理——基于墨家哲学在新型国际关系上的嵌入     

余吉安  薛芮 《热带地理》2022,42(7):1190-1200

立足于中国哲学与地缘政治相融合的视角,通过解构地缘政治视角下的南海海洋治理问题,对比分析百家争鸣中墨家哲学对南海治理的价值作用,针对南海海洋治理提取墨家哲学的理念要点,尝试构建墨家哲学在南海海洋治理上的实践指导体系,研究表明：1）域内治理目标的不清晰和治理保障的不落地,以及域外大国的介入和国际组织发挥的作用有限,共同造成南海海洋治理的困境。2）南海海洋治理以自然海洋与人文海洋的统一为治理客体,以主权国家为最主要的行为主体,需要国家主体间的协同治理。3）从墨家哲学中提取1个核心要点、3个指导要义和4个关键要素,应用于南海海洋治理。在战略功能上以“兼爱非攻”和“义利一体”为价值取向,打破现实主义国际关系局限,以“功利主义”和“志功合一”为行为标准,促进新型国际关系合作;在实操路径上,要嵌入墨家哲学的“法”要素,以规范和标准为牵引,并嵌入墨家哲学的“求”“节”“巧”要素,以科技创新为驱动。  相似文献   

High-resolution Projection Dataset of Agroclimatic Indicators over Central Asia     

Yuan QIU  Jinming FENG  Zhongwei YAN  Jun WANG 《大气科学进展》2022,39(10):1734-1745

To understand the potential impacts of projected climate change on the vulnerable agriculture in Central Asia (CA), six agroclimatic indicators are calculated based on the 9-km-resolution dynamical downscaled results of three different global climate models from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and their changes in the near-term future (2031–50) are assessed relative to the reference period (1986–2005). The quantile mapping (QM) method is applied to correct the model data before calculating the indicators. Results show the QM method largely reduces the biases in all the indicators. Growing season length (GSL, day), summer days (SU, day), warm spell duration index (WSDI, day), and tropical nights (TR, day) are projected to significantly increase over CA, and frost days (FD, day) are projected to decrease. However, changes in biologically effective degree days (BEDD, °C) are spatially heterogeneous. The high-resolution projection dataset of agroclimatic indicators over CA can serve as a scientific basis for assessing the future risks to local agriculture from climate change and will be beneficial in planning adaption and mitigation actions for food security in this region.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal change in landslide hazard by future climate change scenarios using probabilistic-based frequency ratio model     

Lee Moung-Jin  Song Won-Kyong  Won Joong-Sun  Park Inhye 《国际地球制图》2013,28(6):639-662

The aims of this study were to apply, verify and compare a frequency ratio model for landslide hazards, considering future climate change and using a geographic information system in Inje, Korea. Data for the future climate change scenario (A1B), topography, soil, forest, land cover and geology were collected, processed and compiled in a spatial database. The probability of landslides in the study area in target years in the future was then calculated assuming that landslides are triggered by a daily rainfall threshold. Landslide hazard maps were developed for the two study areas, and the frequency ratio for one area was applied to the other area as a cross-check of methodological validity. Verification results for the target years in the future were 82.32–84.69%. The study results, showing landslide hazards in future years, can be used to help develop landslide management plans.  相似文献   

How do potential evapotranspiration formulas influence hydrological projections?   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

G. Seiller  F. Anctil 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(12):2249-2266

ABSTRACT

This paper evaluates the sensitivity of hydrological projections to the choice of potential evapotranspiration formulas on two natural sub-catchments, in Canada and Germany. Twenty-four equations, representing a large range of options, are applied for calibration over the whole observation time series and for future conditions. The modelling chain is composed of dynamically downscaled climatic projections and a 20-member (ensemble) hydrological model, along with a snow module. The roots of the sensitivity and its propagation within the hydrological chain are evaluated to show influences on climate change impact conclusions. Results show large differences between the 24 simulated potential evapotranspiration time series. However, these discrepancies only moderately affect the calibration efficiency of hydrological models as a result of adaptation of parameters. Choice of formula influences hydrological projections and climate change conclusions for both catchments in terms of simulated and projected values, and also in the magnitude of changes during important dynamic periods such as spring and autumn high flows and summer low flows. Spread of the hydrological response is lower for the combinational formulas than for temperature-based or radiation-based equations. All the results reveal the importance of testing a large spectrum of potential evapotranspiration formulas in a decision-making context, such as water resources management.  相似文献