基于多元数据的中国地理空间疫情风险评估探索——以2020年1月1日至4月11日COVID-19疫情数据为例     

方云皓  顾康康 《地球信息科学学报》2021,23(2):284-296

新冠肺炎（COVID-19）在空间上具有一定的传播风险,对城市的安全健康构成了威胁,防止疫情传播成为紧迫的任务。在2020年1月1日至4月11日,COVID-19疫情经历了发生、迅速发展和趋于稳定的发展过程,利用初期的COVID-19数据进行宏观层面的疫情风险评估,为防疫控制措施提供一定的参考。因此本研究基于行政区划、定点医院、疫情小区以及道路交通等多元数据,在宏观层面提出并构建全国地理空间疫情风险性评估,对疫情风险分布探讨的同时进行评估效果验证,并根据构建指标揭示影响风险的因素及其机理,主要结论： ① 地理空间风险评估具有有效的可行性。② 地理空间疫情风险分布全局Moran's I指数为0.758,具有显著的空间集聚特征。同时,不同的省区市之间的局部LISA值呈现空间差异性,其中高—高聚类省区市占比全国25.81%,风险程度较高,主要分布在湖北、河南、湖南、江西、安徽、浙江、江苏、上海,低—低聚类省区市占比全国9.68%,风险程度较低,主要分布在青海、西藏、新疆。③ 地理空间疫情风险分布与地理区位、道路交通、医疗卫生、疫情现状指标均存在一定的相关性。根据统计学的Pearson相关性分析,其相关指标R ²存在差异,在数值上由高到低依次为疫情现状、地理区位、道路交通、医疗卫生,在属性上其相关因子存在正负2种效应,地理空间疫情风险与武汉市地理距离、定点医院密度以及居民-医院地理距离呈现显著的负相关,其R ²分别为0.813、0.545、0.436,与铁路网密度、公路网密度以及疫情小区密度呈现显著的正相关,其R ²分别为0.751、0.792、0.825。④ 地理空间疫情风险的构成因素错综复杂,其受到多种因子的共同作用,根据空间分层异质性分析,不同因子之间均存在交互作用,其中居民—医院地理距离与公路网密度、铁路网密度交互作用较强,q值分别为0.9842、0.9837。本研究在宏观层面为城市管理中重大疫情的空间资源分配以及区域空间的联防联控策略提供了相应的依据。  相似文献   

耦合人群移动的COVID-19传染病模型研究进展     

尹凌  刘康  张浩  奚桂锴  李璇  李子垠  薛建章 《地球信息科学学报》2021,23(11):1894-1909

构建传染病模型可为疫情防控与公共卫生研究提供至关重要的规划与解析工具。由于宿主行为是传染病传播动态的决定性因素之一,有效耦合人群时空行为对以人为宿主的传染病建模具有重要意义。得益于人群移动大数据研究与应用的快速发展,新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）的疫情建模研究中呈现出了耦合人群移动建模的显著特征。为系统深入理解该项传染病模型研究中的重要进展,本文对相关文献进行分析与总结。首先,本文分析了COVID-19疫情与人群移动的交互影响,说明了耦合人群移动构建COVID-19模型的必要性。然后,根据建模的目的和原理,从疫情短期预测与过程模拟2个角度,对耦合人群移动的COVID-19传染病模型进行分类梳理。其中,根据耦合人群移动的方式,本文将面向疫情短期预测的模型分为人群移动一阶量与人群移动二阶量的耦合模型,将基于过程模拟的模型分为群体级别和个体级别的耦合模型。最后,本文评述了耦合人群移动的传染病模型研究进展和未来发展方向,认为该领域研究亟需更加深入建模与疾病传播相关的复杂人群时空行为、提升模型的空间解析能力、突破精细化时空传播模拟的计算瓶颈、拓展与前沿人工智能方法的融合,并构建普适而开放的建模数据与工具以促进应用发展。  相似文献   

Effect of salt stress on the expression of NHX-type Na＋/H＋ antiporters in Populus euphratica and R pruinosa calli     

LiHua Hu  YuXia Wu 《寒旱区科学》2014,(1):66-72

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雌牙鲆CYP19A基因启动子“CpG”岛区的单核苷酸多态性及与繁殖性能的关联分析     

何峰  马瑞芹  赵旭  张宇  于锦涛  温海深  李吉方 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2011,41(9):19-24

芳香化酶基因(CYP19)编码的芳香化酶是雄激素转化为雌激素的关键酶,在鱼类性腺发育及繁殖内分泌过程中起着重要的作用。本研究采用聚合酶链式反应-单链构象多态(PCR-SSCP)和放射性免疫方法(RAI)对61尾雌牙鲆进行了CYP19A基因启动子CpG岛区多态性检测,并将其与繁殖性能进行了关联分析。CpG岛区存在3种类型的基因型(pattern1、pattern2、pattern3),经测序发现CpG岛区有以下突变:T-1927插入或缺失、C-1899插入或缺失、T-1772C、C-1766T、TGTCAAC-1752~-1744插入或缺失(11个SNPs连锁突变)。方差分析结果表明:此位点对雌二醇(E2)水平的效应达到显著(P<0.05)水平,经多重比较分析,具有pattern1基因型的个体的雌激素(E2)水平显著低于pattern2和pattern3基因型个体的雌激素水平(P<0.05),同时pattern1基因型的个体的mRNA表达量显著低于pattern2和pattern3基因型个体的mRNA表达量(P<0.05)。以上结果表明,CYP19A基因调控区甲基化位点突变可能导致芳香化酶的表达量,进而影响牙鲆繁殖内分泌过程;同时也阐明了这些与牙鲆繁殖性状相关的SNPs可以用于生产实践中进行标记辅助选择具有优良繁殖性能的牙鲆。  相似文献   

The outgassing and composition of Comet 19P/Borrelly from radio observations     

Dominique Bockelée-Morvan  Nicolas Biver  Pierre Colom  Florence Henry  John K. Davies  Harold A. Weaver 《Icarus》2004,167(1):113-128

Radio spectroscopic observations of Comet 19P/Borrelly were performed during the 1994 apparition and at, and near, the time of the Deep Space 1 flyby in 2001. HCN, CS, CH₃OH, and H₂CO were detected using the 30-m telescope of the Institut de Radioastronomie Millimétrique and the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope, and their production rates relative to water are estimated to be 0.06-0.11, 0.07, 1.7, and 0.4%, respectively. Only upper limits are derived for H₂S and CO. The upper limit for CO/H₂O (<15%) is not very constraining, while the upper limit for the H₂S/H₂O ratio of 0.45% is near the bottom of the range of values measured for other comets. Observations of the OH radical at the Nançay radio telescope provide water production rates a few weeks before the 1994 and 2001 perihelia. Observations of the 1₁₀-1₀₁ water line at 557 GHz with the Odin satellite yield a water production rate of (2.5±0.5)×10²⁸ s⁻¹ on September 22, 2001, at the time of the Deep Space 1 encounter, and (3.3±0.6)×10²⁸ s⁻¹ averaged over the September 22-24, 2001 period. The line shapes are asymmetric and blueshifted by V₀∼−0.18 km s⁻¹ for the best observed HCN lines recorded one week after perihelion. The HCN line shapes, and the similar OH and HCN velocity shifts over the September-November 1994 and August-September 2001 periods, favor anisotropic outgassing towards the Sun. Strong outgassing directed along the primary dust jet seen on visible images is not excluded by the HCN line shapes, but unrealistically high gas expansion velocities are required to explain the line shapes in that case.  相似文献   

Deep Space 1 photometry of the nucleus of Comet 19P/Borrelly     

B.J Buratti  M.D Hicks  D Britt  J.K Hillier 《Icarus》2004,167(1):16-29

The NASA-JPL Deep Space 1 Mission (DS1) encountered the short-period Jupiter-family Comet 19P/Borrelly on September 22, 2001, about 8 days after perihelion. DS1's payload contained a remote-sensing package called MICAS (Miniature Integrated Camera Spectrometer) that included a 1024 square CCD and a near IR spectrometer with ∼12 nm resolution. Prior to its closest approach of 2171 km, the remote-sensing package on the spacecraft obtained 25 CCD images of the comet and 45 near-IR spectra (L. Soderblom et al., 2002, Science 296, 1087-1091). These images provided the first close-up view of a comet's nucleus sufficiently unobscured to perform quantitative photometric studies. At closest approach, corresponding to a resolution of 47 meters per pixel, the intensity of the coma was less than 1% of that of the nucleus. An unprecedented range of high solar phase angles (52-89 degrees), viewing geometries that are in general attainable only when a comet is active, enabled the first quantitative and disk resolved modeling of surface photometric physical parameters, including the single particle phase function and macroscopic roughness. The disk-integrated geometric albedo of Borrelly's nucleus is 0.029±0.006, comparable to the dark hemisphere of Iapetus, the lowest albedo C-type asteroids, and the uranian rings. The Bond albedo, 0.009±0.002, is lower than that of any Solar System object measured. Such a low value may enhance the heating of the nucleus and sublimation of volatiles, which in turn causes the albedo to decrease even further. A map of normal reflectance of Borrelly shows variations far greater than those seen on asteroids. The two main terrain types, smooth and mottled, exhibit mean normal reflectances of 0.03 and 0.022. The physical photometric parameters of Borrelly's nucleus are typical of other small dark bodies, particularly asteroids, except preliminary modeling results indicate its regolith may be substantially fluffier. The nucleus exhibits significant variations in macroscopic roughness, with the oldest, darkest terrain being slightly smoother. This result suggests the infilling of low-lying areas with dust and particles that have not been able to leave the comet. The surface of the comet is backscattering, but there are significant variations in the single particle phase function. One region exhibits a flat particle phase function between solar phase angles of 50° and 75° (like cometary dust and unlike planetary surfaces), suggesting that its regolith is controlled by native dust rather than by meteoritic bombardment.  相似文献   

Short-wavelength infrared (1.3-2.6 μm) observations of the nucleus of Comet 19P/Borrelly     

L.A Soderblom  D.T Britt  B.J Buratti  T.C Owen 《Icarus》2004,167(1):100-112

During the last two minutes before closest approach of Deep Space 1 to Comet 19P/Borrelly, a long exposure was made with the short-wavelength infrared (SWIR) imaging spectrometer. The observation yielded 46 spectra covering 1.3-2.6 μm; the footprint of each spectrum was ∼160 m × width of the nucleus. Borrelly's highly variegated and extremely dark 8-km-long nucleus exhibits a strong red slope in its short-wavelength infrared reflection spectrum. This slope is equivalent to J-K and H-K colors of ∼0.82 and ∼0.43, respectively. Between 2.3-2.6 μm thermal emission is clearly detectable in most of the spectra. These data show the nucleus surface to be hot and dry; no trace of H₂O ice was detected. The surface temperature ranged continuously across the nucleus from ?300 K near the terminator to a maximum of ∼340 K, the expected sub-solar equilibrium temperature for a slowly rotating body. A single absorption band at ∼2.39 μm is quite evident in all of the spectra and resembles features seen in nitrogen-bearing organic molecules that are reasonable candidates for compositional components of cometary nuclei. However as of yet the source of this band is unknown.  相似文献   

Visible Lightcurve Observations of Comet 19p/Borrelly     

Mueller  Béatrice E. A.  Samarasinha  Nalin H. 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2002,90(1-4):463-471

The final Deep Space 1 (DS1) mission target, comet 19P/Borrelly, was observedfrom July 28–August 1, 2000 at the CTIO-1.5 m telescope in the R filter. Theobserved lightcurve has a large peak to peak variation between 0.84 mag and1.0 mag. A period of 26.0 ± 1 hr (assuming a double-peaked lightcurve)was found using all five nights. This is in good agreement with the period of25.02 ± 0.5 hr quoted by Lamy et al. (1998) using only 6 points ofHST data and is also consistent with HST data taken around the DS1 encountertime by Weaver et al. (2002).Using the mean magnitude R = 20.8 mag and assuming a 4% albedo, we derivean effective nuclear radius of 2.6 km. The large lightcurve amplitude translates toa long to intermediate axial ratio a/b ≥ 2.2, in excellent agreement with theHST result of a/b ≥ 2.4 (Lamy et al., 1998) and with DS1 images (Soderblom et al., 2002).  相似文献   

COVID-19 to go? The role of disasters and evacuation in the COVID-19 pandemic     

《Global Environmental Change》2022

Since the start of the pandemic, some U.S. communities have faced record storms, fires, and floods. Communities have confronted the increased challenge of curbing the spread of COVID-19 amid evacuation orders and short-term displacement that result from hazards. This raises the question of whether disasters, evacuations, and displacements have resulted in above-average infection rates during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study investigates the relationship between disaster intensity, sheltering-in-place, evacuation-related mobility, and contagion following Hurricane Zeta in Southeastern Louisiana and The Wildfires in Napa and Sonoma Counties, California, known as the Glass Fire. We draw on data from the county subdivision level and mapped and aggregated tallies of Facebook user movement from the Facebook Data for Good program’s GeoInsights Portal. We test the effects of disasters, evacuation, and shelter-in-place behaviors on COVID-19 spread using panel data models, matched panel models, and synthetic control experiments. Our findings suggest associations between disaster intensity and higher rates of COVID-19 cases. We also find that while sheltering-in-place led to decreases in the spread of COVID-19, evacuation-related mobility did not result in our hypothesized surge of cases immediately after the disasters. The findings from this study aim to inform policymakers and scholars about how to better respond to disasters during multi-crisis events, such as offering hotel accommodations to evacuees instead of mass shelters and updating intake and accommodation procedures at shelters, such as administration temperature screenings, offering hand sanitizing stations, and providing isolated areas for ill evacuees.  相似文献   

疫情背景下中国居民城际出行恢复力、恢复模式与影响因素     

勾艺超  魏铭  王姣娥  王成金 《地球信息科学学报》2022,24(10):1941-1956

新冠疫情爆发以来,居民城际出行受到显著影响,其时空波动规律反映了居民城际出行恢复力和恢复模式。文章基于百度迁徙数据,着眼于疫情防控常态化阶段,分析城际出行恢复力的分异格局,归纳总结时序波动规律与模式,并构建计量模型探究影响城际出行恢复力的因素。研究构建了波动比率、恢复比率、恢复弹性和恢复指数4个指标,用以衡量城际出行恢复力大小;将2021年中国新冠疫情划分为4个波次,各轮疫情持续时长不一,涉及地区范围各异。研究发现：① 居民城际出行恢复力表现出一定的空间差异,东部地区最好,西部地区和中部地区其次,东北地区最差;② 居民城际出行恢复模式时序与传统韧性三角形模式相似,根据疫情传播特征和性质具体可归纳为相对独立型、中间波动型、起点关联型、终点关联型、双向受制型等5种模式,表现出各异的曲线形态和特征;③ 对于居民城际出行恢复力的影响因素,机场、高铁等交通因素具有正向相关关系,而与GDP、产业结构等经济因素的影响表现为U型关系。疫情防控背景下,城际出行恢复模式和恢复力是城市韧性的重要方面,为制定相关城市政策提供了科学依据。  相似文献