Estimating the confidence of earthquake damage scenarios: examples from a logic tree approach   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

S. Molina  C. D. Lindholm 《Journal of Seismology》2007,11(3):299-310

Earthquake loss estimation is now becoming an important tool in mitigation planning, where the loss modeling usually is based on a parameterized mathematical representation of the damage problem. In parallel with the development and improvement of such models, the question of sensitivity to parameters that carry uncertainties becomes increasingly important. We have to this end applied the capacity spectrum method (CSM) as described in FEMA HAZUS-MH. Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology, Earthquake Model, Advanced Engineering Building Module. Federal Emergency Management Agency, United States (2003), and investigated the effects of selected parameters. The results demonstrate that loss scenarios may easily vary by as much as a factor of two because of simple parameter variations. Of particular importance for the uncertainty is the construction quality of the structure. These results represent a warning against simple acceptance of unbounded damage scenarios and strongly support the development of computational methods in which parameter uncertainties are propagated through the computations to facilitate confidence bounds for the damage scenarios.  相似文献   

生态足迹分析研究评述     

华红莲  肖海平  谢武生 《云南地理环境研究》2005,17(Z1):74-76

生态足迹是一种定量测量人类对自然利用程度的新方法。这种方法具有很强的综合性,而且计算简便、操作性强,容易进行国家之间、地区之间的比较。但是,作为一种高度综合的测度方法,其政策含义往往具有笼统性和不明晰性。从地理学的研究角度出发,分别从空间上和时间序列上来分析区域生态足迹的空间结构及其演化特征和演化趋势,就能解决这一局限,为区域决策服务。  相似文献   

Finding a balance between economic performance and capacity efficiency for sustainable fisheries: Case of the Da Nang gillnet fishery,Vietnam     

《Marine Policy》2014

Marine capture fisheries in Vietnam are small-scale, multi-species, multi-gear, and open access regime. Under numerous governmental promotion programs, Vietnamese fishing fleets have expanded at an uncontrollable rate. This research analyzes the economic performance and capacity efficiency of the Da Nang gillnet fishery. Data were obtained from 45 gillnetters in Da Nang using questionnaires, which were administered between April and July of 2011. The results showed that large-scale vessels (engine power≥90 hp) had better economic performance than small-scale vessels (engine power<90 hp) with average gross revenue flows of 1346.7 and 750.7 million VND, respectively. The large-scale vessels further actualized positive profits (15% gross revenue), while the small-scale vessels demonstrated negative results (−0.4% gross revenue). The main operating costs of fuel and labor accounted for 44% and 26%, respectively, of the total operating expenses. However, the results of the data envelopment analysis (DEA) showed that the Da Nang gillnet fishery did not operate at full capacity and that the unused capacity and the technical inefficiency rates were approximately 21.2% and 10.8%, respectively. The over-use of fuel, net sheets, and number of days at sea in the large-scale vessels were 7%, 10%, and 3%, respectively, while these ratios in the small-scale vessels were 7%, 3%, and 7%, respectively. Overcapacity may be separated into two parts, one part resulting from the optimal technical use of inputs and a second part resulting from enhancing the current policies. As such, feasible policies may include implementing the buyback of small and unprofitable vessels, and reviewing subsidy programs.  相似文献   

Calculation of CO₂ column heights in depleted gas fields from known pre-production gas column heights     

M. Naylor  M. WilkinsonR.S. Haszeldine 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2011,28(5):1083-1093

Depleted gas fields have been identified as potential targets for CO₂ storage. In order to maximise storage capacity, a target field must be deep enough to ensure that the CO₂ is in a dense phase (either liquid or supercritical). Accurate assessment of the storage capacity also requires an estimation of the amount of CO₂ that can be safely stored beneath the reservoir seal which can be estimated in several ways. In this paper we develop a methodology to convert known pre-production gas column heights into CO₂ column heights in order to estimate storage capacities. Several authors have correctly identified that the differences in interfacial tension and wettability act to reduce the threshold capillary entry pressure for CO₂ compared to natural gas, consequently reducing column height estimates. However, under reservoir conditions the density of CO₂ is substantially higher than natural gas so the buoyancy force on the seal for a fixed column height is much lower for dense phase CO₂ increasing column height estimates; we investigate the effects of this trade off on storage estimates and apply it to a typical dataset, in this case the UK North Sea.  相似文献   

Factors influencing hazard management by municipalities: The case of coastal communities     

《Global Environmental Change》2022

As climate and anthropogenic changes increase the vulnerability of coastal areas around the world, the threat (and reality) of coastal hazards grows. These threats arise particularly at a local level, calling out for more knowledge on how to best support coastal municipalities to deal with natural and human-induced hazards. This study seeks to add to the understanding through an examination of local-level experience with hazard planning and responses carried out by coastal municipalities, producing insights on how to reduce their vulnerability and support their resilience. It explores the factors influencing coastal municipalities’ management of relevant hazards to achieve comprehensive multi-hazard risk reduction and adaptation. We do so through a national survey of Canada’s coastal municipalities which assessed experience with hazards, risk perception, hazard prioritization, and the extent and specifics of hazard responses. We characterize the determinants of coastal municipalities’ behaviour and intervening factors, and conduct regression analyses to explain coastal municipalities’ risk perception, hazard prioritization, implementation of management processes for dealing with hazards, and the number of implemented or planned hazard responses. Six key factors were identified that influence hazard responses at the municipal level: experience with hazards; competing priorities; hazard visibility; access to resources (financial and technical capacity) and governance (institutional setting and political capacity). We conclude that municipal hazard responses can be reinforced by increasing the effectiveness of risk communication, promoting participatory processes, providing support for municipalities’ identified needs and priorities, ensuring municipalities have access to relevant information and expertise, and implementing integrated coastal governance and management.  相似文献   

Developing institutions for the clean development mechanism (CDM): African perspectives     

Harald Winkler  Ogunlade Davidson  Stanford Mwakasonda 《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):209-220

Abstract

The clean development mechanism (CDM) requires developing countries to set up designated national authorities (DNAs). The DNA should be designed to both attract investment and to establish an effective regulatory framework for project approval—including assessment to ensure that CDM projects contribute to national sustainable development objectives. Since CDM investment flows to Africa are uncertain, however, countries cannot risk large investments in institutional infrastructure and need to build on existing institutions. This article examines the critical functions that a DNA has to fulfil, and outlines several institutional models. It concludes that models that minimize institutional cost by drawing on existing institutions for environmental impact assessment and promotion of foreign direct investment are likely to be the best starting-point for DNAs in many African countries.  相似文献   

Chaotic dynamics analysis and control of iterative procedure of capacity spectrum method     

Dixiong Yang  Gang Li 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2009

The capacity spectrum method (CSM), capable of predicting the demands of forces and deformations of the inelastic system, has been applied in the ATC and FEMA guidelines. The deformation of an inelastic system is solved iteratively by using the equivalent linearization for CSM, which actually forms a nonlinear map or discrete dynamical system. However, the iterative procedure of CSM did not converge for some inelastic systems, and the complicated dynamical phenomena for the solutions such as the periodic oscillation, period-doubling bifurcation and chaos may occur, which were shown in the bifurcation plots of iterative map of the simplified CSM in ATC40 and FEMA440. This paper presents a novel method to analyze and control the non-convergence of the iterative procedure of CSM from the perspective of chaotic dynamics. The Lyapunov exponent of the dynamical system is employed to identify the evolutional state and stability of solutions. Finally, the stability transformation method as a simple, versatile and effective chaos feedback control approach is applied to control the convergent failure of CSM in ATC40 and FEMA440. The numerical results illustrate that the stability transformation method can capture the desired fixed points of the dynamical system and obtain the stable convergent solutions of CSM.  相似文献   

区域大气环境容量测算及二氧化硫总量平衡分配研究   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

周昊  李元宜 《气象与环境学报》2006,22(5):19-23

利用CALPUFF中尺度模型模拟计算出来的影响矩阵建立容量模型,使用专业的数学计算软件Lindo对容量模型进行计算,在综合考虑中部城市群区域的客观情况下,得到基于环境容量的辽宁中部城市群SO2排放总量平衡分配方案,为环境管理提供科技支撑。  相似文献   

Capacity building in the marine sector in the Pacific Islands: the role of the University of the South Pacific's Marine Studies Programme     

Joeli Veitayaki  G. Robin South 《Marine Policy》2001,25(6):169

Capacity building in the marine sector is a priority for Pacific Island nations, which face major challenges in the sustainable management of their marine resources under UNCLOS III and the various Conventions and Agreements stemming from UNCED. The University of the South Pacific (USP), with its 12 Pacific Island members (Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu) has taken up this challenge through the establishment of its Marine Studies Programme (MSP) in 1993. The MSP is one of the four focal areas identified in USP's 1998 Strategic Plan. The breadth of MSP's activities is substantial, ranging from awareness raising at the village level to sophisticated post-graduate research in marine science. The substantial regional and international cooperation, research and training involved in these endeavours require USP to respond to education, training and research needs at many levels. As USP services more than 23 million square kilometres of ocean space and less than 1.7 million people, only a small percentage of this population have access to face-to-face teaching. USP's success to date is a measure of staff dedication, innovation and the confidence of the university, its members, and its donor partners. Capacity building in the marine sector will remain a high priority for many years to come, and MSP must continue to play a leading role.  相似文献   

Mapping and estimating land change between 2001 and 2013 in a heterogeneous landscape in West Africa: Loss of forestlands and capacity building opportunities     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2017

In West Africa, accurate classification of land cover and land change remains a big challenge due to the patchy and heterogeneous nature of the landscape. Limited data availability, human resources and technical capacities, further exacerbate the challenge. The result is a region that is among the more understudied areas in the world, which in turn has resulted in a lack of appropriate information required for sustainable natural resources management. The objective of this paper is to explore open source software and easy-to-implement approaches to mapping and estimation of land change that are transferrable to local institutions to increase capacity in the region, and to provide updated information on the regional land surface dynamics. To achieve these objectives, stable land cover and land change between 2001 and 2013 in the Kara River Basin in Togo and Benin were mapped by direct multitemporal classification of Landsat data by parameterization and evaluation of two machine-learning algorithms. Areas of land cover and change were estimated by application of an unbiased estimator to sample data following international guidelines. A prerequisite for all tools and methods was implementation in an open source environment, and adherence to international guidelines for reporting land surface activities. Findings include a recommendation of the Random Forests algorithm as implemented in Orfeo Toolbox, and a stratified estimation protocol − all executed in the QGIS graphical use interface. It was found that despite an estimated reforestation of 10,0727 ± 3480 ha (95% confidence interval), the combined rate of forest and savannah loss amounted to 56,271 ± 9405 ha (representing a 16% loss of the forestlands present in 2001), resulting in a rather sharp net loss of forestlands in the study area. These dynamics had not been estimated prior to this study, and the results will provide useful information for decision making pertaining to natural resources management, land management planning, and the implementation of the United Nations Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (UN-REDD).  相似文献