Methods for the identification of models for hydrological forecasting have to consider the specific nature of these models
and the uncertainties present in the modeling process. Current approaches fail to fully incorporate these two aspects. In
this paper we review the nature of hydrological models and the consequences of this nature for the task of model identification.
We then continue to discuss the history (“The need for more POWER‘’), the current state (“Learning from other fields”) and
the future (“Towards a general framework”) of model identification. The discussion closes with a list of desirable features
for an identification framework under uncertainty and open research questions in need of answers before such a framework can
be implemented. 相似文献
Systematic microthermometric measurements of fluid inclusions in the PGE-polymetallic deposits hosted in the Lower Cambrian black rock series in southern China were performed, and the results suggest: (1) there exist two types of fluid inclusions. TypeⅠis of NaCl-H2O system with low-medium salinity, and its homogenization temperatures (Th) and salinities are 106.9- 286.4℃ and ( 0.8- 21.8) wt%NaCl eq. respectively; TypeⅡ is of CaCl2-NaCl-H2O system with medium-high salinities, and its homogenization temperatures and salinities range from 120.1℃ to 269.6℃ and ( 11.4- 31.4) wt%NaCl eq., respectively. The typeⅡ fluid inclusions have been discovered for the first time in this kind of deposits; (2) two generations of ore-forming fluids were recognized. Characteristics of fluid inclusions in the PGE-polymetallic ores and carbonate-quartz stockworks in the underlying phosphorites are almost of no difference, they may represent ore-forming fluids at the main metallogenic stage. The peak value of homogenization temperature of those fluid inclusions is about 170℃, while their salinities possess a remarkable bimodal distribution pattern with two peak values of (27-31) wt%NaCl eq. and (4-6) wt%NaCl eq. On the contrary, fluid inclusions in the carbonate-quartz veins in the hanging wall may represent ore-forming fluids at the post-metallogenetic stage. The homogenization temperatures and the peak values of salinities are mostly 130-170℃ and (12-14) wt%NaCl eq., respectively; (3) nobel gas isotopic composition analyses in combination with the microthermometric measurements of fluid inclusions suggest that the ore-forming fluids at the main metallogenetic stage were probably derived from mixing of basinal hot brines with the CaCl2-NaCl-H2O system and seawater with the NaCl-H2O system; (4) in the Early Cambrian, the basinal hot brines were trapped in the Caledonian basins, which were distributed along the southern margin of the Yangtze Craton, and where giant thick sediments were accumulated, and expelled and migrated laterally along the strata because of the pressure caused by overlying sediments. The basinal hot brines absorbed Ni, Mo, V, PGE from the surrounding rocks and were transformed into ore-bearing hydrothermal fluids with the CaCl2-NaCl-H2O system and medium-high salinities, then ascended along faults and mixed with seawater of the NaCl-H2O system, and finally PGE-polymetallic deposits or occurrences were formed in the black rock series. 相似文献
Flood stories in the Hebrew Bible and the Koran appear to be derived from earlier flood stories like those in the Gilgamesh Epic and still earlier in the Atrahasis. All would have their source from floods of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.
The Gilgamesh Epic magnifies the catastrophe by having the flood begin with winds, lightning, and a shattering of the earth, or earthquake. Elsewhere in Gilgamesh, an earthquake can be shown to have produced pits and chasms along with gushing of water. It is commonly observed that earthquake shaking causes water to gush from the ground and leaves pits and open fissures. The process is known as soil liquefaction. Earthquake is also a possible explanation for the verse “all the fountains of the great deep (were) broken up” that began the Flood in Genesis. Traditionally, the “great deep” was the ocean bottom. A more recent translation substitutes “burst” for “broken up” in describing the fountains, suggesting that they erupted at the ground surface and were caused by an earthquake with soil liquefaction. Another relation between soil liquefaction and the Flood is found in the Koran where the Flood starts when “water gushed forth from the oven”. Soil liquefaction observed erupting preferentially into houses during an earthquake provides a logical interpretation if the oven is seen as a tiny house. A case can be made that earthquakes with soil liquefaction are embedded in all of these flood stories. 相似文献
The internal architecture of the immense volumes of eruptive products in Continental Flood Basalt Provinces (CFBPs) provides vital clues, through the constraint of a chrono-stratigraphic framework, to the origins of major intraplate melting events. This work presents close examination of the internal facies architecture and structure, duration of volcanism, epeirogenetic uplift associated with CFBPs, and the potential environmental impacts of three intensely studied CFBPs (the Parana-Etendeka, Deccan Traps and North Atlantic Igneous Province). Such a combination of key volcanological, stratigraphic and chronologic observations can reveal how a CFBP is constructed spatially and temporally to provide crucial geological constraints regarding their development.
Using this approach, a typical model can be generated, on the basis of the three selected CFBPs, that describes three main phases of flood basalt volcanism. These phases are recognized in Phanerozoic CFBPs globally. At the inception of CFBP volcanism, relatively low-volume transitional-alkaline eruptions are forcibly erupted into exposed cratonic basement lithologies, sediments, and in some cases, water. Distribution of initial volcanism is strongly controlled by the arrangement of pre-existing topography, the presence of water bodies and local sedimentary systems, but is primarily controlled by existing lithospheric and crustal weaknesses and concurrent regional stress patterns. The main phase of volcanism is typically characterised by a culmination of repeated episodes of large volume tholeiitic flows that predominantly generate large tabular flows and flow fields from a number of spatially restricted eruption sites and fissures. These tabular flows build a thick lava flow stratigraphy in a relatively short period of time (c. 1–5 Ma). With the overall duration of flood volcanism lasting 5–10 Ma (the main phase accounting for less than half the overall eruptive time in each specific case). This main phase or ‘acme’ of volcanism accounts for much of the CFBP eruptive volume, indicating that eruption rates are extremely variable over the whole duration of the CFBP. During the waning phase of flood volcanism, the volume of eruptions rapidly decrease and more widely distributed localised centres of eruption begin to develop. These late-stage eruptions are commonly associated with increasing silica content and highly explosive eruptive products. Posteruptive modification is characterised by continued episodes of regional uplift, associated erosion, and often the persistence of a lower-volume mantle melting anomaly in the offshore parts of those CFBPs at volcanic rifted margins. 相似文献
Hydrographic observations in the eastern Arabian Sea (EAS) during summer monsoon 2002 (during the first phase of the Arabian
Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX)) include two approximately fortnight-long CTD time series. A barrier layer was observed occasionally
during the two time series. These ephemeral barrier layers were caused byin situ rainfall, and by advection of low-salinity (high-salinity) waters at the surface (below the surface mixed layer). These barrier
layers were advected away from the source region by the West India Coastal Current and had no discernible effect on the sea
surface temperature. The three high-salinity water masses, the Arabian Sea High Salinity Water (ASHSW), Persian Gulf Water
(PGW), and Red Sea Water (RSW), and the Arabian Sea Salinity Minimum also exhibited intermittency: they appeared and disappeared
during the time series. The concentration of the ASHSW, PGW, and RSW decreased equatorward, and that of the RSW also decreased
offshore. The observations suggest that the RSW is advected equatorward along the continental slope off the Indian west coast. 相似文献
The major obstacles for modelling flood processes in karst areas are a lack of understanding and model representations of
the distinctive features and processes associated with runoff generation and often a paucity of field data. In this study,
a distributed flood-modelling approach, WetSpa, is modified and applied to simulate the hydrological features and processes
in the karst Suoimuoi catchment in northwest Vietnam. With input of topography, land use and soil types in a GIS format, the
model is calibrated based on 15 months of hourly meteorological and hydrological data, and is used to simulate both fast surface
and conduit flows, and groundwater discharges from karst and non-karst aquifers. Considerable variability in the simulation
accuracy is found among storm events and within the catchment. The simulation results show that the model is able to represent
reasonably well the stormflows generated by rainfall events in the study catchment. 相似文献
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