青藏高原活动地块地震频次的Hurst指数分析     

李永强  王培玲 《高原地震》2006,18(1):36-40

应用地震活动频次的Hurst指数研究青藏高原各活动地块的地震预报问题。结果表明,对1970年以来各地块的地震作回溯性预报检验,得到的R值均能通过97.5%置信水平的检验,因而地震活动频次的Hurst指数的研究在青藏高原各地块的地震预报中有一定的预报效能。  相似文献   

甘肃三个台地磁日变赫斯特指数的时序特征          下载免费PDF全文

许康生  李英  李秋红 《地震工程学报》2017,39(1):107-111

选用甘肃嘉峪关、兰州和天水地磁台2011—2013年的观测数据,重点研究地磁垂直向日变化波形下行段的赫斯特指数变化的时序特征。结果表明,在此3年内,嘉峪关台和兰州台地磁垂直向日变化波形下行段的赫斯特指数变化范围分别是0.08和0.06,天水台在2012年存在一个赫斯特指数幅度超过正常变化范围的过程,在此过程完成后的2013年7月22日,在距离天水130km的漳县和岷县交界发生M6.6地震。结合其他学者的研究结果,认为这一赫斯特指数的异常变化过程可能反映了区域性地球深部(下地壳与上地幔)热物质运移变化而引起地球局部居里面变化,也可能是地震孕育过程在地磁日变中的表征。这一发现有益于进一步研究地磁日变异常的机理、震磁关系以及地震预报的探索。  相似文献   

Characterizing the Spatio-temporal Dynamics and Variability in Climate Extremes over the Tibetan Plateau during 1960-2012     

ZHOU Yuke 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2019,10(4):397-414

Extreme climate events play an important role in studies of long-term climate change. As the Earth’s Third Pole, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is sensitive to climate change and variation. In this study on the TP, the spatiotemporal changes in climate extreme indices (CEIs) are analyzed based on daily maximum and minimum surface air temperatures and precipitation at 98 meteorological stations, most with elevations of at least 4000 m above sea level, during 1960-2012. Fifteen temperature extreme indices (TEIs) and eight precipitation extreme indices (PEIs) were calculated. Then, their long-term change patterns, from spatial and temporal perspectives, were determined at regional, eco-regional and station levels. The entire TP region exhibits a significant warming trend, as reflected by the TEIs. The regional cold days and nights show decreasing trends at rates of -8.9 d (10 yr)^-1 (days per decade) and -17.3 d (10 yr)^-1, respectively. The corresponding warm days and nights have increased by 7.6 d (10 yr)^-1 and 12.5 d (10 yr)^-1, respectively. At the station level, the majority of stations indicate statistically significant trends for all TEIs, but they show spatial heterogeneity. The eco-regional TEIs show patterns that are consistent with the entire TP. The growing season has become longer at a rate of 5.3 d (10 yr)^-1. The abrupt change points for CEIs were examined, and they were mainly distributed during the 1980s and 1990s. The PEIs on the TP exhibit clear fluctuations and increasing trends with small magnitudes. The annual total precipitation has increased by 2.8 mm (10 yr)^-1 (not statistically significant). Most of the CEIs will maintain a persistent trend, as indicated by their Hurst exponents. The developing trends of the CEIs do not show a corresponding change with increasing altitude. In general, the warming trends demonstrate an asymmetric pattern reflected by the rapid increase in the warming trends of the cold TEIs, which are of greater magnitudes than those of the warm TEIs. This finding indicates a positive shift in the distribution of the daily minimum temperatures throughout the TP. Most of the PEIs show weak increasing trends, which are not statistically significant. This work aims to delineate a comprehensive picture of the extreme climate conditions over the TP that can enhance our understanding of its changing climate.  相似文献   

2000—2018 年锡林郭勒地区干旱时空变化及其气候响应          下载免费PDF全文

吴英杰  全强  陈晓俊  王文君  周泉成  尹航  李玮 《干旱区地理》2020,43(5):1289-1397

温度植被干旱指数（Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index,TVDI）是一种反映干旱状况的重 要方法。以内蒙古自治区锡林郭勒为研究区,基于温度植被干旱指数,采用趋势分析、R/S 分析方 法,探究了锡林郭勒地区 2000—2018 年温度植被干旱指数 TVDI 时空变化特征及其降水、气温气候 因子对 TVDI 变化的影响关系。研究表明：（1）19 a 间,TVDI 的偏差值呈现先减少后增大的趋势, 19 a 平均 TVDI 值为 0.55,TVDI 值范围为 0.51 ~ 0.61,说明锡林郭勒地区整体处于轻旱状态。（2）19 a 间,锡林郭勒地区 TVDI 呈明显增加的面积占 9.48%、轻度增加的面积占 18.52%,增加的趋势主要 分布在东乌珠穆沁旗东北部地区;TVDI 呈明显减少的面积占 28.65%、轻度减少的面积占 9.03%,减 少趋势的主要体现苏尼特右旗、苏尼特左旗、阿巴嘎旗和镶黄旗地区。19 a 来锡林郭勒地区变化趋 势为：东部强于西部。Hurst 指数的平均值为 0.44,大于 0.44 的地区占总面积的 47.7%,整体干旱持 续性略弱于反持续性。（3）TVDI 与年平均气温相关关系较弱,而与月平均气温又较强的相关性。  相似文献   

DIGITAL MAPPING OF HURST CASTLE SPIT,HAMPSHIRE     

R. L. COLLIN 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1996,21(11):1049-1054

This paper serves two purposes. The first is to make available to the geomorphological community the first in a short series of up-to-date digital maps of ‘classic’ coastal landforms of the U.K. — Hurst Castle Spit. The second is to demonstrate that conventional surveying techniques and readily available graphics software on a PC or Mackintosh will provide an entry into digital mapping for geomorphological applications. Comments are included on how the digital map may be utilized.  相似文献   

Uncertainty,entropy, scaling and hydrological stochastics. 2. Time dependence of hydrological processes and time scaling / Incertitude,entropie, effet d'échelle et propriétés stochastiques hydrologiques. 2. Dépendance temporelle des processus hydrologiques et échelle temporelle     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3)

Abstract

The well-established physical and mathematical principle of maximum entropy (ME), is used to explain the distributional and autocorrelation properties of hydrological processes, including the scaling behaviour both in state and in time. In this context, maximum entropy is interpreted as maximum uncertainty. The conditions used for the maximization of entropy are as simple as possible, i.e. that hydrological processes are non-negative with specified coefficients of variation and lag-one autocorrelation. In the first part of the study, the marginal distributional properties of hydrological processes and the state scaling behaviour were investigated. This second part of the study is devoted to joint distributional properties of hydrological processes. Specifically, it investigates the time dependence structure that may result from the ME principle and shows that the time scaling behaviour (or the Hurst phenomenon) may be obtained by this principle under the additional general condition that all time scales are of equal importance for the application of the ME principle. The omnipresence of the time scaling behaviour in numerous long hydrological time series examined in the literature (one of which is used here as an example), validates the applicability of the ME principle, thus emphasizing the dominance of uncertainty in hydrological processes.  相似文献   

基于县域单元的湖北省碳排放时空格局演变特征     

周玄德  窦文章  詹庆明  孜比布拉·司马义  邓祖涛  曾勇 《测绘通报》2022,(11):149

识别碳排放区域异质性对于制定有效的碳减排政策具有重要意义。本文运用线性回归模型、变异系数法、Hurst指数和空间自相关分析方法,开展湖北省县域碳排放空间格局演变特征研究。结果表明,1997-2017年间,湖北省碳排放总体呈显著的波动上升趋势,年均增速高达4.74%;各县域碳排放变化波动性存在显著地域差异,整体呈“中低波动居多,高波动较少”的趋势;各县域碳排放变化长期相关性特征明显,整体以中强持续性特征为主,比例达70%,分布相对较广,其中强持续性区域主要集中在武汉市内;各县域碳排放空间分布聚集效应显著,呈以武汉为核心向周围不断辐射的圈层格局。  相似文献   

气候模式应用中的不确定性分析   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

张世法  顾颖  林锦 《水科学进展》2010,21(4):504-511

为了分析和评价气候变化对水文水资源的影响,根据中国东部地区1956～2000年实测年降水量系列数据,采用多年均值、系列趋势变化指标和反映系列可持续特性的Hurst系数等3项指标,对CGCMA3、MPI-ECHAM5和平均GCM等3种气候模式模拟的同期年降水系列数据进行了检验。检验结果表明,3种气候模式模拟结果与实测值之间,以及不同模式模拟结果之间,不仅定量方面差异很大,而且在定性方面甚至出现相悖的结果,不确定性十分显著。同样,根据3种气候模式预测的未来2001～2050年年降水量和季平均气温推得的未来年径流量系列数据,其多年均值、系列趋势变化指标和干旱年年径流量多项指标也存在明显的不确定性。据此对气候模式及其应用提出了相应的建议。  相似文献   

Stochastic computational modelling of highly heterogeneous poroelastic media with long‐range correlations     

Diego G. Frias  Mrcio A. Murad  Felipe Pereira 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2004,28(1):1-32

The compaction of highly heterogeneous poroelastic reservoirs with the geology characterized by long‐range correlations displaying fractal character is investigated within the framework of the stochastic computational modelling. The influence of reservoir heterogeneity upon the magnitude of the stresses induced in the porous matrix during fluid withdrawal and rock consolidation is analysed by performing ensemble averages over realizations of a log‐normally distributed stationary random hydraulic conductivity field. Considering the statistical distribution of this parameter characterized by a coefficient of variation governing the magnitude of heterogeneity and a correlation function which decays with a power‐law scaling behaviour we show that the combination of these two effects result in an increase in the magnitude of effective stresses of the rock during reservoir depletion. Further, within the framework of a perturbation analysis we show that the randomness in the hydraulic conductivity gives rise to non‐linear corrections in the upscaled poroelastic equations. These corrections are illustrated by a self‐consistent recursive hierarchy of solutions of the stochastic poroelastic equations parametrized by a scale parameter representing the fluctuating log‐conductivity standard deviation. A classical example of land subsidence caused by fluid extraction of a weak reservoir is numerically simulated by performing Monte Carlo simulations in conjunction with finite elements discretizations of the poroelastic equations associated with an ensemble of geologies. Numerical results illustrate the effects of the spatial variability and fractal character of the permeability distribution upon the evolution of the Mohr–Coulomb function of the rock. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于Hurst指数的矿化强度识别－以山东大尹格庄金矿为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

万丽  邓小成  王庆飞  刘欢 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2013,43(1):87-92

探索成矿元素分布的分形特征是揭示矿化富集程度的重要途径之一。运用重标极差分析（R/S）方法,研究了山东大尹格庄金矿-210 m中段多勘探线Au品位序列随采样尺度变化的趋势,探讨元素序列的Hurst指数与矿化强度的关系。结果显示:具有不同矿化强度的勘探线Au的Hurst指数存在明显差异,且均大于0.5;矿化连续分布或间断出现的勘探线元素品位序列的Hurst指数大于0.65,表明元素序列具有标度不变性和长相关性,序列的持续强度与矿化程度基本一致,可为区域矿化强度定量识别提供一种新的有效方法。  相似文献