Predicting cumulative sediment depostition in large reservoirs     

R. M. Phatarfod  T. E. Unny  K. Ponnambalam 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1990,4(3):241-251

Sediment deposition and its accumulation in a large resorvoir depends on the inflow and reservoir storage content, respectively. Because of this fact it is possible to model the cumulative deposition of sediment as an additive process defined on a bivariate Markov chain. Using the bivariate Markov chain model the mean and variance of the cumulative deposition of John Martin Reservoir, Colorado, U.S.A. are estimated and compared with observed sedimentation data.  相似文献   

Bayesian Equivalent Sample Toolkit (BEST): an Excel VBA program for probabilistic characterisation of geotechnical properties from limited observation data     

Yu Wang  Zijun Cao 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2016,10(4):251-268

In site investigation, the amount of observation data obtained for geotechnical property characterisation is often too sparse to obtain meaningful statistics and probability distributions of geotechnical properties. To address this problem, a Bayesian equivalent sample method was recently developed. This paper aims to generalize the Bayesian equivalent sample method to various geotechnical properties, when measured by different direct or indirect test procedures, and to implement the generalized method in Excel by developing an Excel VBA program called Bayesian Equivalent Sample Toolkit (BEST). The BEST program makes it possible for practitioners to apply the Bayesian equivalent sample method without being compromised by sophisticated algorithms in probability, statistics and simulation. The program is demonstrated and validated through examples of soil and rock property characterisations.  相似文献   

A geospatial analysis of multi-scalar regional inequality in China and in metropolitan regions     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2017

This paper provides a geospatial analysis of regional inequality across provinces, prefectures and counties in China from 1997 to 2010 under a comparative spatiotemporal conceptual framework. Despite significant spatial agglomeration at all spatial scales, the extent of agglomeration shows an obviously downward trend from 2003 to 2006. Substantially stronger agglomeration of economic development is demonstrated at county scales. Local indicators of spatial autocorrelation (LISA) are employed to visualize the local spatial characteristics of economic growth. Four snapshots (in the years 1997, 2001, 2005, and 2010) of LISA indicate a dramatic north-shifting of hot spots of economic growth in response to the northward movement of foreign investors and spatial agglomeration besides institutional forces in China. Furthermore, local spatial agglomeration demonstrates a heterogeneous process: hot spots of economic development along the coast, cold spots in western China and no significant spatial clusters in central China. As the major carries of scale economies, metropolitan regions see decreasing internal agglomeration during this period with the exception of the Yangtze River Delta area, which shows a strong spatial spillover into its neighbourhood. Finally, LISA Markov and geovisualization methods are employed to predict the long-run properties of spatial distribution in multi-scalar China. The results show that downward co-movements of a county with its neighbours are more frequently encountered, perhaps resulting in the continuous concentration of poor areas in the long run.  相似文献   

遥感时间序列影像变化检测研究进展   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

赵忠明  孟瑜  岳安志  黄青青  孔赟珑  袁媛  刘晓奕  林蕾  张蒙蒙 《遥感学报》2016,20(5):1110-1125

同一区域、不同时期大量历史数据的积累,以及同一区域能够方便地获取高时间分辨率遥感数据,使遥感时间序列影像变化检测成为近年来遥感技术与应用的研究热点。本文系统总结和评述了当前遥感时间序列影像变化检测的相关研究进展和应用状况,在阐明遥感时间序列分析的意义,以及时间序列影像在变化检测中的优势的基础上,从非遥感领域时间序列变化检测方法出发,针对遥感时间序列影像变化检测的需求,明确和归纳了遥感时间序列变化检测的问题与类型,并对当前最新研究进行了综述,总结了各种方法的优点与不足,重点介绍了基于经验模态分解的遥感时间序列影像异常信息检测方法和基于隐马尔可夫模型的土地利用/覆盖变化检测方法,以期能够为相关研究提供参考。最后总结了该研究领域的发展趋势和存在问题,并对今后的研究工作和未来发展方向进行了展望。  相似文献   

Study of evolution forecast of the area of the Huanghe River mouth     

Guo Yongsheng  Xu Xuegong  Fan Zhaomu  Wu Peihong  Zhu Xiaoge 《海洋学报(英文版)》1993,12(2):249-259

From 1979 to 1989, the current Qingshuigou course of the Huanghe River formed a sub - delta which resembles a beak extending into the Laizhou Bay. It covers 618 km2 in area. To meet the needs of developing and constructing the Huanghe River Delta and under the presupposition of keeping the current course for 15-20 a, we forecast mainly by using the OM (1, 1) model that the front border of the sub-delta will be close to 119°30'E and its area will become 923 km2by the end of the year 2000. The Huanghe River will make land 760 km2 in area.  相似文献   

Data quality check procedures of an operational coastal ocean monitoring network     

Dong Jiing Doong  Shen Hsien Chen  Chia Chuen Kao  Beng Chun Lee  Sun Pei Yeh 《Ocean Engineering》2007,34(2):234-246

Field oceanographic and meteorological data are required for ocean engineering. In response to the requirement of field data, an operational coastal ocean monitoring network was established around Taiwan coast, including nine deep-water data buoys, one shallow-water pile station, 10 coastal weather stations and 10 tide stations. Data quality check procedures are necessary to ensure the accuracy of measurements. This paper presents the data quality check procedures on ocean wave data which includes automatic and manual check procedures. The checking criteria are derived using statistical theory in this paper. In addition, a sea-state-dependent algorithm is presented in this study in order to derive checking criteria of time-continuity check. It is showed to have better performance of picking up suspicious data than using fixed threshold process. This data quality check program is now used on the operational monitoring network.  相似文献   

A method for estimating earthquake occurrence probability using first- and multiple-order Markov chain models   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Yukio Fujinawa 《Natural Hazards》1991,4(1):7-22

It is valuable in earthquake prediction to determine the occurrence probability of major earthquakes by making use of data obtained from precursory phenomena up to the time of the evaluation. In this study, the time evolution of the state determined by earthquakes and precursory phenomena was modelled using Markov chains. Various probabilities suitable for earthquake prediction were derived from the transition probability of the Markov chain with a chosen length of memory time. As an example, earthquake sequence records for northern China, which covered a period of about two thousand years, were examined and the results were also obtained from modern scientific observations of the radon anomaly which covered a period of about 10 years.Assuming moderate-sized earthquakes of two magnitude ranges 4 3/4 M 5 3/4, 6 M 6 3/4 as precursors to large earthquakes of a magnitude range, 7 M 8 1/2, transition probabilities were calculated for a time interval from 2 to 40 yr. The results showed that the precursory time of moderate-sized earthquakes is mainly distributed in a time span of around several years and that the earthquake occurrence probability is considerably large when the precursory earthquakes occur successively. Furthermore, it was shown that a larger moderate-sized earthquake (4 3/4 M 5 3/4) is a more effective precursor than an entire moderate-sized earthquake (4 3/4 M 6 3/4).Second, a multiple precursor case was tried by means of simulation based on the radon anomaly data obtained during a limited observation period. Simultaneous occurrence of two precursors makes the earthquake occurrence probability increase by 1.5–2.0 for a reasonable choice of a mean recurrence interval of the radon anomaly compared with the case where only a moderate-sized earthquake was treated as the precursor. However, the probability is much the same if the average recurrence interval of the radon anomaly is the same through time, including the preparatory period before the earthquake.  相似文献   

Real-time flood forecasting with the use of inadequate data     

IOANNIS NALBANTIS 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):269-284

Abstract

A modelling scheme is developed for real-time flood forecasting. It is composed of (a) a rainfall forecasting model, (b) a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, and (c) a stochastic error model of the ARMA family for forecast error correction. Initialization of the rainfall-runoff model is based on running this model on a daily basis for a certain period prior to the flood onset while parameters of the error model are updated through the Recursive Least Squares algorithm. The scheme is suitable for the early stages of operation of flood forecasting systems in the presence of inadequate historical data. A validation framework is set up which simulates real-time flood forecasting conditions. Thus, the effects of the procedures for rainfall-runoff model initialization, forecast error correction and rainfall forecasting are assessed. Two well-known conceptual rainfall-runoff models (the Soil Moisture Accounting model of the US National Weather Service River Forecast Service—SMA-NWSRFS and TANK) together with data from a Greek basin are used for illustration purposes.  相似文献   

Analysis of agricultural drought in Iiuni,Eastern Kenya: application of a Markov model     

E. K. Biamah  G. Sterk  T. C. Sharma 《水文研究》2005,19(6):1307-1322

In semi‐arid Kenya, episodes of agricultural droughts of varying severity and duration occur. The occurrence of these agricultural droughts is associated with seasonal rainfall variability and can be reflected by seasonal soil moisture deficits that significantly affect crop performance and yield. The objective of this study was to stochastically simulate the behaviour of dry and wet spells and rainfall amounts in Iiuni watershed, Kenya. The stochastic behaviour of the longest dry and wet spells (runs) and largest rainfall amounts were simulated using a Markov (order 1) model. There were eight raingauge stations within the watershed. The entire analysis was carried out using probability parameters, i.e. mean, variance, simple and conditional probabilities of dry and rain days. An analysis of variance test (ANOVA ) was used to establish significant differences in rainfall characteristics between the eight stations. An analysis of the number of rain days and rainfall amount per rain day was done on a monthly basis to establish the distribution and reliability of seasonal rainfall. The graphic comparison of simulated cumulative distribution functions (Cdfs) of the longest spells and largest rainfall amounts showed Markovian dependence or persistence. The longest dry spells could extend to 24 days in the long rainy season and 12 in the short rainy season. At 50% (median) probability level, the largest rainfall amounts were 91 mm for the long rainy season and 136 mm for the short rainy season. The short rains were more reliable for crop production than the long rains. The Markov model performed well and gave adequate simulations of the spells and rainfall amounts under semi‐arid conditions. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

比特币平台挖矿策略及其收益综述     

洪阳  王立松  葛春鹏 《南京气象学院学报》2019,11(5):532-540

区块链技术是比特币平台的底层技术,由于其具有透明性、不可伪造性、不可更改性等特点,被广泛应用于虚拟货币、供应链等系统中.然而,大部分区块链平台,如比特币平台,面临包括自私挖矿在内的诸多问题,这将直接导致比特币并不安全,从而严重影响区块链的发展.自私挖矿是一种比特币挖掘策略,它是指自私矿工选择性地发布之前的隐匿的区块从而获得比诚实矿工更多的额外收益.本文在模拟诚实矿工挖矿实验基础上,重点研究自私挖矿情况下矿工的最佳相对收益.采用中心极限定理和节点状态转化图建立了两个节点分布概率模型,再运用马尔可夫随机过程和函数极值法依次求得两个模型下的最佳收益.同时设计并进行自私挖矿模拟实验,得出自私挖矿中节点算力和收益的关系,从而进一步验证模型的合理性.  相似文献