21世纪重庆中雨以上天数的预估分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张天宇  程炳岩  唐红玉  刘晓冉 《气象科学》2010,30(2):151-157

利用用于IPCC-AR4的全球气候模式产品,验证其对重庆地区极端降水指数中雨以上天数(dR10)模拟能力的基础上,对模拟能力较好的模式进行组合,预估高(A2)、中(A1B)、低(B1)三种排放情景下未来21世纪重庆地区dR10的变化。不同排放情景下未来重庆dR10的变化不太一致。与目前气候(1980—1999年)相比,不同情景下未来21世纪重庆地区dR10在多数时期将可能减少。21世纪的后90a(2011—2100年),A2情景下重庆dR10减少最多,平均减少1.3d;3种情景平均将减少0.5d。21世纪初期(2011—2040年)、中期(2041—2070年)和后期(2071—2100年),A2情景下重庆dR10减少都最多,分别平均减少1.6d、1.6d和0.7d;3种情景平均分别减少0.8d、0.6d和0.1d。  相似文献   

基于PPAR模型视二维地震时间序列预测的初步研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王琼  王海涛  李莹甄 《地震》2003,23(3):10-18

PP投影寻踪是一种长于分析非正态、非线性的高维数据的新统计方法,它通过投影降维,客观地寻找反映高维数据结构特征的投影方向,从而解决“维数祸根”和高维数据间的非正态、非线性问题。将PP理论和时间序列分析中的自回归(AR(K))模型结合起来,建立投影寻踪自回归预测模型(PPAR)。尝试实现地震震级和时间的视二维预测,即在固定研究区里。实现震级和时间二要素的预测,进而建立视二维地震时间序列的投影寻踪自回归模型。研究中首先选取北天山地区作为实验区,模型的回归拟合和外符检验效果较理想,可实现视二维预测目标。考虑到实际预测意义。即中强地震的预测,又以天山地区为研究区。令其震级序列的震级阈值分别为5．0和5．5,分别以未删除余震和删除余震的序列建立模型。对比分析表明,后所建立的模型要优于前的模型。特别是对时间间隔序列的预测。两外符检验的合格率均较高,故认为对于震级和时间二要素的预测是有一定实效的。  相似文献   

城市洪涝易损性分类与诊断研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

朱聪  秦蓓蕾  王文圣  丁晶 《云南地理环境研究》2005,17(2):15-18

城市洪涝易损性分析对城市防洪安全具有极其重要的作用。将基于加速遗传算法的投影寻踪模型应用于城市洪涝易损性分类与诊断。运用建议模型探讨了湖南省29个城市的洪涝易损性,将全省洪涝易损性程度划分为5个等级:低度易损性、较低度易损性、中度易损性、较高度易损性、高度易损性,同时与模糊评价结果进行了对比。研究表明,投影寻踪模型客观考虑了各个影响因子的权重,结果合理、可靠,可以在实际的类似问题中应用。  相似文献   

Modern chemometric data analysis – methods for the objective evaluation of load in river systems     

Corinna Kowalik  Jürgen W. Einax 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2006,34(5):425-436

Environmental data are highly variable. They also include uncertainties resulting from all steps of the analytical process e. g. sampling, or sampling pre‐treatment. However, a lot of information is unfortunately often lost because only univariate statistical methods are used for data evaluation and interpretation. This neglects correlation between different pollutants and relationships among various sampling points. It is therefore necessary to apply additional methods of analysis that can accommodate such relationships. This ability is provided by the established, and by the more modern, multivariate statistical methods because they can analyze complex sets of multidimensional data. These methods are used to visualize large amounts of data and to extract latent information (e. g. differently polluted areas, dischargers, or interactions between different environmental compartments). The goal of this paper is to present the use of established statistical techniques, like cluster or factor analysis, and the progress made in basic modern techniques (e. g. cluster imaging, multiway‐partial least squares regression, projection pursuit, or information theory) and to demonstrate each with examples and illustrations.  相似文献   

投影寻踪回归方法在长江三角洲地区降水量预报中的应用          下载免费PDF全文

葛旭阳 《气象科学》2002,22(1):88-92

本文首先利用北半球大气环流、SST场以及环流特征量指数等资料，普查了与长江三角洲地区降水量关系密切的预测因子，并根据投影寻踪回归方法（PPR）建立了该地区降水量预报模型。试验结果表明，该统计方法具有稳健性，对降水量的预测效果较好。  相似文献   

国家西部测图工程成果1980西安坐标系与CGCS2000国家大地坐标系转换方案的设计与实现     

黄青伦  霍健  龚健辉 《四川测绘》2010,33(1):24-26

通过对西部测图工程成果数据的坐标转换试验,提出了一种有效的坐标转换方案。文中详细探讨了转换过程中的技术要点、解决方案以及在VB．NET中代码实现的过程。  相似文献   

Recent behavior and possible future evolution of the glacieret in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains under conditions of climate warming     

Peter NOJAROV  Emil GACHEV  Karsten GRUNEWALD 《山地科学学报》2019,(1):16-29

This research reveals relationships between climate variables and inter-annual dynamics in the area of the glacieret located in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains. The study period is 1993–2017. The correlations are identified using statistical methods. Also, a statistical model is constructed, including some climate variables as predictors. Despite the evident decrease of the glacieret's size in the period from the 1950 s onwards, the long-term trends for the last decades have been insignificant. The main climatic factors influencing the inter-annual dynamics in the area of the glacieret are air temperature, precipitation, zonal and meridional winds and relative humidity. With respect to the dynamics in the area of the glacieret, the important trends in the different climate variables are those of the warm period air temperatures and zonal(u) wind. They also determine to a great extent its future development by acting in two opposite directions – rising temperatures in the warm period will lead to a rapid decrease of its area by the end of the melting season, while the change of wind directionfrom west to east in the warm period will increase its area. The influence of the zonal wind in the warm period is explained mainly by the location of the glacieret in the cirque. Generally, the glacieret is tilted downwards from west to east. Thus, westerly winds facilitate blowing away the snow from the surface of the glacieret, assisting its melting in the warm period. Easterly winds do not have such an effect. The combination of the opposite effects of these two most important climate variables leads to the most likely scenario for the future development of the glacieret, according to which by the middle of this century it is expected to turn into a semi-permanent snow patch, which disappears after some summers, and by the end of the century to completely melt every year before the end of the melting season.  相似文献   

全球变暖背景下春季Hadley环流与东亚夏季风环流年际对应关系的多模式预估   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

周波涛 《地球物理学报》2012,55(11):3517-3526

观测事实揭示,春季Hadley环流在年际时间尺度上与东亚夏季风环流和降水具有密切联系.在未来全球变暖背景下,春季Hadley环流与东亚夏季风环流和降水的这种年际关系是否会发生变化？针对该问题,本文在评估的基础上选取五个气候模式,分析了A1B排放情景下春季北半球Hadley环流年际变率的未来变化及其与东亚夏季风环流和降水的年际关系.多模式集合(MME)预估结果表明,在全球变暖背景下,与20世纪末期(1970—1999年)相比,到21世纪末期(2070—2099年),春季北半球Hadley环流的年际变率强度将减弱,减弱幅度达32%.随着春季Hadley环流年际变率的减弱,其与夏季西太平洋副热带高压和东亚夏季风强度的联系将变弱.MME模拟结果还显示,春季Hadley环流与夏季东亚西风急流和降水的关系也降低,但各单个模式间存在较大差异.  相似文献   

The attenuated Ricker wavelet basis for seismic trace decomposition and attenuation analysis     

Xuebing Zhang  Cai Liu  Xuan Feng  Bonan Li  Kexin Li  Qin You 《Geophysical Prospecting》2020,68(2):371-381

The widely used wavelets in the context of the matching pursuit are mostly focused on the time–frequency attributes of seismic traces. We propose a new type of wavelet basis based on the classic Ricker wavelet, where the quality factor Q is introduced. We develop a new scheme for seismic trace decomposition by applying the multi-channel orthogonal matching pursuit based on the proposed wavelet basis. Compared with the decomposition by the Ricker wavelets, the proposed method could use fewer wavelets to represent the seismic signal with fewer iterations. Besides, the quality factor of the subsurface media could be extracted from the decomposition results, and the seismic attenuation could be compensated expediently. We test the availability of the proposed methods on both synthetic seismic record and field post-stack data.  相似文献   

动态匹配追踪中利用连续相位求取瞬时频率     

刘汉卿  张繁昌  代荣获  印兴耀 《物探与化探》2015,(1):211-216

动态匹配追踪算法将信号的瞬时特征作为先验信息引入到信号分解中,缩小了时频原子库的搜索范围,提高了匹配追踪效率。但在利用瞬时相位获取瞬时频率信息时会得到无物理意义的负频率,不能直接应用于匹配追踪,已有文献并没有给出瞬时频率存在负异常时的解决方案。基于此,笔者通过研究主值相位与解缠相位之间的差异,提出了利用连续相位求取瞬时频率,并推导了连续相位的求取公式;然后通过实例分析,获得了反映三种不同相位数值变化的趋势图;最后通过对比三种相位求取的瞬时频率,证明由连续相位求取的瞬时频率不存在负异常,可直接应用于匹配追踪算法。  相似文献