人工神经网络和决策树模型在滑坡易发性分析中的性能对比   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

田乃满  兰恒星  伍宇明  李郎平 《地球信息科学学报》2020,22(12):2304-2316

机器学习模型广泛应用于区域性滑坡易发性分析。模型的选择关系到评价结果的可信度、准确率和稳定性。现有滑坡易发性分析模型对比研究侧重模型的预测精度。模型的稳定性和数据量敏感性对机器学习模型的性能评估同样非常重要。本文以福建省南平市蔡源流域为研究区,以四川省绵阳市北川县为验证区,从预测精度、稳定性和数据量敏感性3个方面深入对比BP（Back Propagation）人工神经网络模型和CART（Classification and Regression Tree）决策树模型在滑坡易发性分析中的效果,主要结论如下:① 在逐渐增加一定数量训练样本的过程中,BP人工神经网络模型预测精度的增长率更高。在蔡源流域内,当训练样本数量增加10 000时,BP人工神经网络模型的预测精度上升5.22%,CART决策树模型的预测精度上升2.11%。② BP人工神经网络的预测精度高于CART决策树模型,且较为稳定。在100组数据集上,BP人工神经网络模型验证集预测精度的均值和验证集滑坡样本预测精度的均值分别为81.60%和84.86%,高于CART决策树模型的72.97%和76.59%。与此同时,BP人工神经网络模型对应预测精度的标准差分别是0.32%和0.37%,小于CART决策树模型的0.35%和0.67%。③ BP人工神经网络模型分析的滑坡易发区相比CART决策树模型,更接近实际滑坡的空间分布。最后,北川县的验证实验也出现了相同的现象。  相似文献   

Glacial forest refugium in Howard Valley,South Island,New Zealand     

Maureen J. Marra  Glenn D. Thackray 《第四纪科学杂志》2010,25(3):309-319

Fossils of forest habitat beetles and leaves of Nothofagus menziesii provide evidence of a forest refugium at times between ca. 34 000 and ca. 18 500 cal. a BP at an upland site in Howard Valley, located adjacent to glaciated valleys in South Island, New Zealand. The stratigraphy of the glacial‐aged terrace sequence of organic‐rich silts and fluvial sand/gravels indicates that soil development occurred episodically for around 15 000 a. Fifty‐four beetle taxa represent seven habitat types: forest, forest or scrub, riparian and aquatic, litter, grass/tussock, marshland and moss habitats. Leaf and beetle fossils indicate that forest dominated by N. menziesii persisted at the site for most of the time period represented, and tree line taxa such as Taenarthrus sp. 1 (Carabidae) and Podocarpus sp. (Podocarpaceae) indicate that the site may represent the upper tree limit for full‐glacial time. The finding of forest at this elevated site adds to the growing fossil evidence for multiple forest refugia in New Zealand during the last glaciation and is consistent with the pollen records, which have consistently indicated the presence of forest species during the last glaciations. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Central England temperature since AD 1850: the potential of stable carbon isotopes in British oak trees to reconstruct past summer temperatures     

G. H. F. Young  R. J. Bale  N. J. Loader  D. Mccarroll  N. Nayling  N. Vousden 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(6):606-614

In regions with seasonal temperate climatic regimes, tree growth is rarely controlled by any single environmental factor. As a consequence, the development of robust palaeoclimate reconstructions has proved challenging. Tree‐ring stable carbon isotope ratios (δ¹³C), however, are controlled primarily by photosynthetic rate, not by net growth. Therefore, at sites where climatic controls on tree‐ring growth are not strongly expressed, a robust (isotopic) palaeoclimate signal may still potentially be preserved. This hypothesis was tested using a 160‐year record of δ¹³C measured from the pooled latewood cellulose of six Quercus petraea L. (sessile oak) trees from Allt Lan‐las in West Wales, UK. Raw δ¹³C values were corrected for changes in the isotopic ratio of atmospheric carbon dioxide and for changes in the behaviour of trees due to the increasing availability of atmospheric CO₂ since AD 1850. Strong correlations with local summer temperature and sunshine are reported, and also with the Central England Temperature record over the full length of the isotopic chronology (AD 1850–2010) (r = 0.69, P < 0.001). We conclude that tree‐ring stable isotopes can be used to extract strong palaeoclimate signals even from oak trees growing in a temperate maritime climate. This demonstrates the potential for extracting robust palaeoclimatic information from the very long and well‐replicated oak chronologies which have been developed in western and central Europe primarily for dating rather than palaeoclimatic research purposes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于GIS与SDM技术的可视化空间数据分类研究   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

贾泽露  张彤 《测绘科学》2007,32(1):115-118

提出将GIS与可视化空间数据挖掘技术之集成的基本框架。在此基础上,基于VisualC++6.0和Ma-pObject2.0组件技术设计和开发了一个可视化交互空间数据挖掘分类系统,系统采用决策树方法和贝叶斯网络作为数据挖掘方法的基本算法,采用训练与学习相结合实现空间数据的分类。文中用实例数据对系统性能、算法和规则有效性进行了验证。结果表明,该系统是一个适用的、可扩展的可视化交互空间数据挖掘工具,系统能够实现数据挖掘实时动态的交互控制,实现了数据挖掘过程的可视化、挖掘模型的可视化和结果的可视化显示、可视化思考、可视化分析与评价。  相似文献   

基于决策树的洪泽湖湿地信息提取     

张楼香  阮仁宗 《测绘与空间地理信息》2015,(2):87-91

湿地是地球的重要组成部分,快速而准确地提取湿地信息,是湿地动态监测和可持续发展的一项基础而重要的工作.以洪泽湖淡水湿地为研究对象,采用2006年8月19日的Landsat5 TM遥感影像为数据源,采用经K-T变换光谱增强后的数据及利用灰度共生矩阵分析影像第一主成分的纹理统计量作辅助分类变量,基于地物光谱特征、纹理特征和形状特征,运用决策树分类法提取洪泽湖湿地植被信息,将其分类结果与最大似然法的分类结果进行比较.结果表明:1)洪泽湖地区的湿地植被比较丰富,面积约占全湖的10.74％,其中以浮水植物为主.2)基于决策树的分类结果的精度有了明显的提高,总精度由77.33％提高到86.33％,Kappa系数由0.7292提高到0.8354,证明基于决策树分类方法是提取淡水湿地植被信息的有效手段.  相似文献   

Adaptation to climate change in desertified lands of the marginal regions in Egypt through sustainable crop and livestock diversification systems     

Hassan M. El Shaer 《寒旱区科学》2015,7(1):0016-0022

Environmental degradation resulting from current climate changes, including prolonged drought, land degradation, desertification, and loss of biodiversity, is presenting enormous challenges to achieve ...  相似文献   

Evaluating the relationship between biomass,percent groundcover and remote sensing indices across six winter cover crop fields in Maryland,United States     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2015

Winter cover crops are an essential part of managing nutrient and sediment losses from agricultural lands. Cover crops lessen sedimentation by reducing erosion, and the accumulation of nitrogen in aboveground biomass results in reduced nutrient runoff. Winter cover crops are planted in the fall and are usually terminated in early spring, making them susceptible to senescence, frost burn, and leaf yellowing due to wintertime conditions. This study sought to determine to what extent remote sensing indices are capable of accurately estimating the percent groundcover and biomass of winter cover crops, and to analyze under what critical ranges these relationships are strong and under which conditions they break down. Cover crop growth on six fields planted to barley, rye, ryegrass, triticale or wheat was measured over the 2012–2013 winter growing season. Data collection included spectral reflectance measurements, aboveground biomass, and percent groundcover. Ten vegetation indices were evaluated using surface reflectance data from a 16-band CROPSCAN sensor. Restricting analysis to sampling dates before the onset of prolonged freezing temperatures and leaf yellowing resulted in increased estimation accuracy. There was a strong relationship between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and percent groundcover (r² = 0.93) suggesting that date restrictions effectively eliminate yellowing vegetation from analysis. The triangular vegetation index (TVI) was most accurate in estimating high ranges of biomass (r² = 0.86), while NDVI did not experience a clustering of values in the low and medium biomass ranges but saturated in the higher range (>1500 kg/ha). The results of this study show that accounting for index saturation, senescence, and frost burn on leaves can greatly increase the accuracy of estimates of percent groundcover and biomass for winter cover crops.  相似文献   

胡杨树轮δ13C记录的艾比湖地区夏季最高温度变化     

尚华明 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2013,7(5):7-13

摘要：艾比湖是新疆北部生态环境最为敏感和脆弱的地区,这里分布的大片长龄胡杨是过去气候变化良好的记录体。本文利用艾比湖东岸的胡杨树轮资料,分析其宽度和稳定碳同位素组成,建立了树轮宽度年表和δ^13C序列,并对δ^13C序列进行了校正处理。树轮参数的气候意义分析表明胡杨树轮宽度所含的气候信息较少,而树轮δ^13C校正序列与精河夏季高温显著负相关,为荒漠平原区树轮气候研究提供了新的资料。研究区夏季的高温超过了光合作用的适宜温度,降低光合作用速率（A）,而地下水埋深较浅,叶片气候导度（g）并没有因受到水分条件限制而减小,在以上两个因素的共同作用下,叶片内部二氧化碳浓度（Ci）升高,导致胡杨δ^13C与夏季高温负相关关系。建立了胡杨树轮δ^13C校正序列与精河夏季高温的转换方程,方差解释量为33．0％。重建的精河145a来夏季高温序列反映了这一地区气候变暖的趋势,其升温的幅度高于北半球夏季升温幅度,但二者冷暖阶段变化并不完全一致。  相似文献   

TREE INVASION IN MEADOWS OF LASSEN VOLCANIC NATIONAL PARK,CALIFORNIA*     

Alan H. Taylor 《The Professional geographer》1990,42(4):457-470

The causes of tree invasion into meadows in Lassen Volcanic National Park were investigated by dating invasive trees and associating age structure patterns with regional variations in fire history, grazing, and climate change. Massive invasion was associated primarily with cessation of livestock grazing and burning between 1905 and 1933, but climatic change may also have contributed. Maintenance of meadows may require continued use of unnatural processes due to uncertainties about pre-European fire regimes and other resource considerations.  相似文献   

Palaeoecological evidence of changes in vegetation and climate during the Holocene in the pre‐Polar Urals,northeast European Russia     

Seija Kultti  Minna Vliranta  Kaarina Sarmaja‐Korjonen  Nadia Solovieva  Tarmo Virtanen  Tommi Kauppila  Matti Eronen 《第四纪科学杂志》2003,18(6):503-520

This study investigated Holocene tree‐line history and climatic change in the pre‐Polar Urals, northeast European Russia. A sediment core from Mezhgornoe Lake situated at the present‐day alpine tree‐line was studied for pollen, plant macrofossils, Cladocera and diatoms. A peat section from Vangyr Mire in the nearby mixed mountain taiga zone was analysed for pollen. The results suggest that the study area experienced a climatic optimum in the early Holocene and that summer temperatures were at least 2°C warmer than today. Tree birch immigrated to the Mezhgornoe Lake area at the onset of the Holocene. Mixed spruce forests followed at ca. 9500–9000 ¹⁴C yr BP. Climate was moist and the water level of Mezhgornoe Lake rose rapidly. The hypsithermal phase lasted until ca. 5500–4500 ¹⁴C yr BP, after which the mixed forest withdrew from the Mezhgornoe catchment as a result of the climate cooling. The gradual altitudinal downward shift of vegetation zones resulted in the present situation, with larch forming the tree‐line. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献