宁夏及青海地震活动性统计指标及未来地震趋势的综合概率预报     

许文俊 《高原地震》1995,(2)

本文叙述了地震活动的综合概率预报方法，并对宁夏及青海地区（３５°００’－４１°００’Ｎ，１００°００’－１０７°４０’Ｅ）１９７０年以来的地震活动资料进行了统计计算，对１９９２年－１９９３年该区地震活动进行了综合预报效能检验。并据此对该区１９９４年－１９９５年的地震趋势做了估计。  相似文献   

全球最优插值客观分析   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

屠伟铭  张跃堂 《气象学报》1995,53(2):148-156

主要叙述国家气象中心实时运行的全球资料同化系统中的客观分析方案，该方案采用最优插值统计方法，使用所有可以使用的各种类型有不同误差的观测资料和模式的６ｈ预报值，给出数值形式的全球分析值。在两年的业务运行中，为Ｔ４２中期数值预报谱模式提供了较好的初始场。  相似文献   

欧亚500 hPa月平均大气环流的年际振荡特征   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

何敏  罗艳 《应用气象学报》1995,6(4):461-467

文章用主分量、功率谱、带通滤波及复主分量分析方法，对欧亚地区1951～1992年的500hPa月平均高度场进行分析，研究了欧亚大气环流年际振荡的时空分布特征。结果表明:欧亚500hPa月平均大气环流主要存在准2.5年、准3.5年振荡周期。副热带地区大气环流以准3.5年振荡为主要周期；中高纬地区以准2.5年振荡为主要周期。复主分量分析还表明了这两种振荡的传播方向和随时间变化各不相同。欧亚500hPa月平均大气环流的准3.5年振荡特征与赤道东太平洋海温的变化及厄尔尼诺现象有密切的关系。  相似文献   

Large to intermediate-scale aquifer heterogeneity in fine-grain dominated alluvial fans (Cenozoic As Pontes Basin,northwestern Spain): insight based on three-dimensional geostatistical reconstruction     

O. Falivene  L. Cabrera  A. Sáez 《Hydrogeology Journal》2007,15(5):861-876

Facies reconstructions are used in hydrogeology to improve the interpretation of aquifer permeability distribution. In the absence of sufficient data to define the heterogeneity due to geological processes, uncertainties in the distribution of aquifer hydrofacies and characteristics may appear. Geometric and geostatistical methods are used to understand and model aquifer hydrofacies distribution, providing models to improve comprehension and development of aquifers. However, these models require some input statistical parameters that can be difficult to infer from the study site. A three-dimensional reconstruction of a kilometer scale fine-grain dominated Cenozoic alluvial fan derived from more than 200 continuously cored, closely spaced, and regularly distributed wells is presented. The facies distributions were reconstructed using a genetic stratigraphic subdivision and a deterministic geostatistical algorithm. The reconstruction is only slightly affected by variations in the geostatistical input parameters because of the high-density data set. Analysis of the reconstruction allowed identification in the proximal to medial alluvial fan zones of several laterally extensive sand bodies with relatively higher permeability; these sand bodies were quantified in terms of volume, mean thickness, maximum area, and maximum equivalent diameter. These quantifications provide trends and geological scenarios for input statistical parameters to model aquifer systems in similar alluvial fan depositional settings.  相似文献   

兰州市空气质量预报系统结构及效果检验   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

杨民  王庆梅  马印飞  李文莉 《干旱气象》2002,20(2):22-26,40

文中从潜势预报、浓度预报、统计预报和数值预报 4方面介绍了兰州市空气质量预报业务系统的研究方法和结构特点。对 2 0 0 1年 4～ 10月兰州市空气质量预报与日报 (实况 )进行了分析研究 ,结果表明 ,该系统对兰州市空气质量预报有较强的预报能力 ,适用于兰州市空气质量预报业务。  相似文献   

应用K指数和TOT指数作江苏中期降水预报的试验   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

宋海鸥  王永红等 《气象科学》2002,22(2):242-246

用国家气象中心的T63和T106中期数值预报产品，计算所划定区域的K指数和TOT指数作为预报因子，并统计与江苏省9个代表站降水的相关。用逐步回归方法建立了江苏省4－7月第4－6天的PP降水预报方程36个、MOS降水预报方程108个，多级判别临界值144组。在此基础上经统计制作江苏省降水概率预报。  相似文献   

Robustness analysis of geodetic horizontal networks   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

P. Vaníček  M. R. Craymer  E. J. Krakiwsky 《Journal of Geodesy》2001,75(4):199-209

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中国西北大旱年发生概率的统计推断   总被引：6，自引：7，他引：6  

栗珂  赵东  杨碧轩  郭宏武  高炬 《高原气象》2001,20(1):66-70

根据中国西北近500a旱涝等级资料，用Bernoulli试验等理论模式，对大旱年发生的概率特征进行了研究，得出大旱年发生的统计规律。在全球气候变暖的大背景下，给出了21世纪中国西北大旱年发生概率的统计推断结果。  相似文献   

Estimation of Hourly and Daily Global Solar Radiation at Clear Days Using an Approach Based on Modified Version of Gaussian Distribution     

S. M. El shazly 《大气科学进展》1996,13(3):349-358

The performance of two models,Jam and Baig,based on the modified version of Gaussian distribution function in estimating the daily total of global solar radiation and its distribution through the hours of the day from sunrise to sunset al any clear day is evaluated with our own measured data in the period from June 1992 to May 1993 in Qena Egypt The results show a high relative deviation of calculated values from measured ones,especially for Jain model,in the most hours of the day,except for those near to local noon.This misfit behavior is quite obvious in the early morning and late afternoon A new approach has been proposed in this paper to estimate the daily and hourly global solar radiation This model performs with very high accuracy on the recorded data in our region.The validity of this approach was verified with new measurements in some clear days in June and August 1994.The resultant very low relative deviation of the calculated values of global solar radiation from the measured ones confirms the  相似文献   

利用历史地震影响烈度的统计特性进行地震区划     

贾素娟  鄢家全 《地震研究》1996,19(3):277-285

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