Stochastic ground motion models to NGA-West2 and NGA-Sub databases using Bayesian neural network     

Vemula Sreenath  S. T. G. Raghukanth 《地震工程与结构动力学》2023,52(1):248-267

Ground motion models (GMMs) are traditionally developed from a frequentist approach. The Bayesian framework has received recent attention in developing nonergodic models, measuring uncertainty, or updating the model with additional data. However, no neural networks are developed to date in this framework to predict ground motion parameters or spectra. Hence, the present work develops a probabilistic Bayesian neural network (PBNN) to next-generation attenuation – West2 and Subduction databases using variational inference with mean-field assumption. Network inputs are magnitude, rupture distance, hypocentral depth, shear wave velocity, style of faulting, and region flags; outputs are peak ground values and response spectra. Both models have two hidden layers with seven neurons in each hidden layer. The models are verified for potential overfit, and their performance is validated through the parametric study by varying inputs. The output of a deterministic model is a point estimate. Considering probabilistic layers in hidden and output layers enables the model to capture within-model epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability. Obtained aleatory standard deviations are consistent with other models. Mean epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability are in the range 0.07–0.10 and 0.62–0.78 (ln units) for NGA-West2 and 0.09–0.16 and 0.67–0.95 for NGA-Sub models, respectively. The correlation coefficients between recorded and overall mean predictions ranged from 0.94 to 0.97 for NGA-the West2 model and from 0.91 to 0.95 for the NGA-Sub models. Network performance for out-of-training inputs showed increased epistemic deviations with no effect on aleatory deviations.  相似文献   

基于统计岩石物理模型的各向异性页岩储层参数反演          下载免费PDF全文

张冰  刘财  郭智奇  刘喜武  刘宇巍 《地球物理学报》2018,61(6):2601-2617

提出了各向异性页岩储层统计岩石物理反演方法.通过统计岩石物理模型建立储层物性参数与弹性参数的定量关系,使用测井数据及井中岩石物理反演结果作为先验信息,将地震阻抗数据定量解释为储层物性参数、各向异性参数的空间分布.反演过程在贝叶斯框架下求得储层参数的后验概率密度函数,并从中得到参数的最优估计值及其不确定性的定量描述.在此过程中综合考虑了岩石物理模型对复杂地下介质的描述偏差和地震数据中噪声对反演不确定性的影响.在求取最大后验概率过程中使用模拟退火优化粒子群算法以提高收敛速度和计算准确性.将统计岩石物理技术应用于龙马溪组页岩气储层,得到储层泥质含量、压实指数、孔隙度、裂缝密度等物性,以及各向异性参数的空间分布及相应的不确定性估计,为页岩气储层的定量描述提供依据.  相似文献   

大渡河猴子岩水库入库洪水过程预报-实时校正-概率预报集成     

李彬权  朱畅畅  梁忠民  陈云瑶  蒋晓蕾  张涛涛 《湖泊科学》2023,35(4):1481-1490

与传统确定性预报相比,洪水概率预报能够为防洪调度决策提供更为丰富的信息。以大渡河猴子岩水库以上流域为研究区,建立新安江次洪模型,并采用动态系统响应曲线进行实时洪水预报校正。在确定性预报校正基础上,建立基于水文不确定性处理器（HUP）的次洪概率预报模型,定量分析预报不确定性,实现入库洪水概率预报。结果表明：(1)利用猴子岩流域2009 2019年水文气象资料,建立的新安江次洪模型整体精度较高,率定期和验证期的洪量和洪峰相对误差均在±20%以内,平均确定性系数分别为0.69和0.72;经动态系统响应曲线校正后,洪峰和洪量误差均有降低,率定期和验证期的确定性系数分别提高0.13和0.09。(2)以2020年3场洪水未来48 h预报降雨为输入,新安江模型预报精度不高,且随着预见期增长而降低,但经动态系统响应曲线校正后,整体预报精度有所提高,洪量相对误差减小幅度超50%,确定性系数提高幅度超60%。(3)HUP次洪概率预报模型提供的分布函数中位数Q50的预报精度在一定程度上优于校正后的确定性预报;提供的90%置信区间覆盖率均在90%左右,离散度均在0.40以下,能以相对较窄的区间覆盖大部分实测值...  相似文献   

Astronomical time scale of the Turonian constrained by multiple paleoclimate proxies     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2020,11(4):1345-1352

One of the clocks that record the Earth history is(quasi-) periodic astronomical cycles.These cycles influence the climate that can be ultimately stored in sedimentary rocks.By cracking these(quasi-) periodic sedimentation signals,high resolution astronomical time scale(ATS) can be obtained.Paleoclimate proxies are widely used to extract astronomical cycles.However different proxies may respond differently to astronomical signals and nonastronomical noises including tectonics,diagenesis,and measurement error among others.Astronomical time scale constructed based on a single proxy where its signal-to-noise ratio is low may have uncertainty that is difficult to evaluate but can be revealed by utilizing other proxies.Here,we test eight astronomical age models using two astrochro no logical methods from four paleoclimate proxies(i.e.,color reflection L~* and b~*,natural gamma radiation,and bulk density) from the Turonian to the Coniacian of the Cretaceous Period at the Demerara Rise in the equatorial Atlantic.The two astrochronological methods are time calibration using long eccentricity bandpass filtering(E1 bandpass) and tracking the long eccentricity from evolutive harmonic analysis(tracking EHA).The statistical mean and standard deviation of four age models from the four proxies are calculated to construct one integrated age model with age uncertainty in each method.Results demonstrate that extracting astronomical signals from multiple paleoclimate proxies is a valid method to estimate age model uncertainties.Anchored at the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary with an age of 93.9 ± 0.15 Ma from biostratigraphy,the ages for CC11/CC12(calcareous nannofossil zones),Turonian/Coniacian(CC12/CC13),CC13/CC14,and Coniacian/Santonian boundaries are 91.25±0.20 Ma,89.87±0.20 Ma,86.36±0.33 Ma,and 86.03±0.32 Ma in E1 bandpass method,compared with 91.17±0.36 Ma,89.74±0.38 Ma,86.13±1.31 Ma,and 85.80±1.33 Ma respectively in tracking EHA method.These results are consistent with previous studies within error and provide a reliable estimation of uncertainties of the ages.  相似文献   

A Monte Carlo-based framework for risk-return analysis in mineral prospectivity mapping     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2020,11(6):2297-2308

Quantification of a mineral prospectivity mapping (MPM) heavily relies on geological, geophysical and geochemical analysis, which combines various evidence layers into a single map. However, MPM is subject to considerable uncertainty due to lack of understanding of the metallogenesis and limited spatial data samples. In this paper, we provide a framework that addresses how uncertainty in the evidence layers can be quantified and how such uncertainty is propagated to the prediction of mineral potential. More specifically, we use Monte Carlo simulation to jointly quantify uncertainties on all uncertain evidence variables, categorized into geological, geochemical and geophysical. On stochastically simulated sets of the multiple input layers, logistic regression is employed to produce different quantifications of the mineral potential in terms of probability. Uncertainties we address lie in the downscaling of magnetic data to a scale that makes such data comparable with known mineral deposits. Additionally, we deal with the limited spatial sampling of geochemistry that leads to spatial uncertainty. Next, we deal with the conceptual geological uncertainty related to how the spatial extent of the influence of evidential geological features such as faults, granite intrusions and sedimentary formations. Finally, we provide a novel way to interpret the established uncertainty in a risk-return analysis to decide areas with high potential but at the same time low uncertainty on that potential. Our methods are illustrated and compared with traditional deterministic MPM on a real case study of prospecting skarn Fe deposition in southwestern Fujian, China.  相似文献   

地下水数值模拟不确定性分析研究进展     

高烨  梁收运  王申宁  刘富强  张洪伟 《地下水》2020,(1):28-31,97

地下水数值模拟不确定性分析旨在提高研究区域地下水流的模拟精度。学者们将地下水数值模拟不确定性分析分为:模型的不确定性、参数的不确定性以及资料的不确定性三类,其中参数的不确定性分析在研究中是最为重要的。同时,对模型、参数、资料不确定性分析的研究进展和成果进行归纳总结,补充关于参数不确定性分析过程中的替代模型的一些研究成果以及模型不确定性分析的多模型分析;强调在地下水数值模拟的过程中,重视模型、资料的不确定性分析;展望未来,随着地下水数值模拟不确定性分析研究的深入,方法和应用会更加多样化。  相似文献   

Uncertainties of geochemical codes and thermodynamic databases for predicting the impact of carbon dioxide on geologic formations     

《Applied Geochemistry》2016

Numerical codes are applied to calculate chemical reactions following geologic carbon sequestration in deep formations and CO₂ leakage in shallow formations. However, using different thermodynamic databases generates variations in the simulation results, which are referred to as the model uncertainty. The PHREEQC and The Geochemist's Workbench codes were used to simulate anorthite dissolution for storage, retention, transfer, and near-surface formation waters in the respective geological units. For each of the formation waters, a simple one-dimensional scenario was simulated using eight different thermodynamic databases. Groundwaters in shallow aquifers commonly exhibit low ionic strengths (<0.5 mol/kgw) and low temperatures, whereas storage formation waters are characterized by high ionic strength (>1.0 mol/kgw) and high temperatures. In storage formations, mineral trapping is the most efficient process for long-term CO₂ storage. However, with respect to the geological formations and the time needed for anorthite dissolution, the model uncertainties associated with using different combinations of numerical codes and thermodynamic databases were largest (∼90%) for the storage formation waters at 58 °C and I = 6.5 mol/l. Conversely, in near-surface formation waters, the model uncertainty was less than 1%. Due to CO₂ dissolution, the calculated pH of the formation waters decreased to a range between pH 4.0 and 5.5. In this pH range, the dissolution mechanism of anorthite switches from the slow neutral mechanism to the faster acid mechanism, causing dissolution time length variations. The calculated pH variation further increased with rising ionic strength. A detailed examination of the reasons revealed the activity coefficient calculation method of the main aquatic species to have the largest impact on the simulated model results. The calculation method of the CO₂ activity coefficient had the second largest impact. Via calibration with the experimental data, a specific thermodynamic database can be chosen to represent these experimental results. However, the calibration of thermodynamic databases is not possible for all potential reactions in more complex geological systems at large ranges of temperature, ionic strength and pressure conditions. The uncertainties associated with using thermodynamic databases quantified in this study for CO₂ storage systems will therefore persist independently from previously conducted calibrations of thermodynamic databases with experimental or field data. In view of these model uncertainties, the modeller is encouraged to include a routine in the simulations for quantification of the model uncertainty depending on the specific scenario or to assess the simulation results as a range of values that represent a soft outcome.  相似文献   

Toward accountable land use mapping: Using geocomputation to improve classification accuracy and reveal uncertainty     

Johan Beekhuizen  Keith C. Clarke 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2010

The classification of satellite imagery into land use/cover maps is a major challenge in the field of remote sensing. This research aimed at improving the classification accuracy while also revealing uncertain areas by employing a geocomputational approach. We computed numerous land use maps by considering both image texture and band ratio information in the classification procedure. For each land use class, those classifications with the highest class-accuracy were selected and combined into class-probability maps. By selecting the land use class with highest probability for each pixel, we created a hard classification. We stored the corresponding class probabilities in a separate map, indicating the spatial uncertainty in the hard classification. By combining the uncertainty map and the hard classification we created a probability-based land use map, containing spatial estimates of the uncertainty. The technique was tested for both ASTER and Landsat 5 satellite imagery of Gorizia, Italy, and resulted in a 34% and 31% increase, respectively, in the kappa coefficient of classification accuracy. We believe that geocomputational classification methods can be used generally to improve land use and land cover classification from imagery, and to help incorporate classification uncertainty into the resultant map themes.  相似文献   

实验室盐度计校准结果的不确定度分析     

田锐  李扬眉 《海洋技术学报》2006,25(4):122-124

文中分析了实验室盐度计校准不确定度来源项,按不确定度的评定方法,以实例形式分析评定了校准结果的不确定度。  相似文献   

SPOT地面场定标与星上定标结果的比较分析   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

田庆久  郑兰芬  童庆禧 《遥感学报》1998,2(1):13-18

本文研究是在遥感辐射定标场选择的基础。利用６Ｓ大气辐射传输模型进行ＳＰＯＴ遥感数据的定标和地物的光谱反射率反演,即在遥感器飞越辐射定标场上空,在定标场选择若干像元区,测量遥感器对应的各波段地物的光谱反射率和大气光谱参量,并利用大气辐射传输模型给出遥感器人瞳处各光谱带的辐射亮度,最后确定它与遥感器对应输出的数字量化的数量关系,求解定标系数。然后,对相应的研究训练区的遥感数据进行大气辐射校正,进而反演训练区内的地物光谱反射率。最后,通过将反演值与实地测量的地物光谱反射率进行对比分析,来估算定标不确定度,并比较说明两种不同方式定标差异及优势和限制。  相似文献