农户受灾经历对气候变化感知与适应行为的影响研究     

曹振选  史兴民 《地域研究与开发》2021,40(1):150-155

采用陕北农户样本调查数据与气象数据,使用独立样本T检验和路径分析探究农户受灾经历对气候变化感知与适应行为的影响。结果发现:受灾经历越丰富的农户越能准确感知气温、降水变化和全球变暖。农户的受灾经历对气温变化感知有正向影响,并通过其对迁移适应行为有间接的负向影响;受灾经历对降水变化感知有负向影响,并通过其对技术适应行为有负向影响、对迁移适应行为产生正向影响;农户受灾经历增强了全球变暖信念,并通过其对经济适应行为和技术适应行为产生间接的正向影响;受灾经历对迁移适应行为有直接的负向影响。  相似文献   

Exploratory analyses of local institutions for climate change adaptation in the Mongolian grasslands: An agent-based modeling approach     

Jun Wang  Daniel G. Brown  Rick L. Riolo  Scott E. Page  Arun Agrawal 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):1266-1276

There has been a decrease in grazing mobility in the Mongolian grasslands over the past decades. Sedentary grazing with substantial external inputs has increased the cost of livestock production. As a result, the livelihoods of herders have become more vulnerable to climate variability and change. Sedentary grazing is the formal institutional arrangement in Inner Mongolia, China. However, this may not be an efficient institutional arrangement for climate change adaptation. Self-organized local institutions for climate change adaptation have emerged and are under development in the study area. In this study, we did exploratory analyses of multiple local institutions for climate change adaptation in the Mongolian grasslands, using an agent-based modeling approach. Empirical studies from literature and our field work show that sedentary grazing, pasture rental markets, and reciprocal pasture-use groups are three popular institutional arrangements in the study area. First, we modeled the social–ecological performance (i.e., livelihood benefits to herders and grassland quality) of these institutions and their combinations under different climate conditions. Second, we did exploratory analyses of multiple social mechanisms for facilitating and maintaining cooperative use of pastures among herders. The modeling results show that in certain value-ranges of some model parameters with assumed values, reciprocal pasture-use groups had better performance than pasture rental markets; and the comparative advantage of cooperative use of pastures over sedentary grazing without cooperation becomes more evident with the increase in drought probability. Agent diversity and social norms were effective for facilitating the development of reciprocal pasture-use groups. Kin selection and punishments on free-riders were useful for maintaining cooperation among herders.  相似文献   

The drying up of Britain? A national estimate of changes in seasonal river flows from 11 Regional Climate Model simulations     

Christel Prudhomme  Andy Young  Glenn Watts  Tracey Haxton  Sue Crooks  Jennifer Williamson  Helen Davies  Simon Dadson  Stuart Allen 《水文研究》2012,26(7):1115-1118

As climate change may modify the hydrological cycle significantly, understanding the impact on river flow is important because it affects long‐term water resources planning. Here, we describe a high‐resolution British assessment of changes in river flows in the 2050s under 11 different realisations of HadRM3. In winter, river flows may either increase or decrease, with a wide range of possible decreases in summer flow. These results should encourage adaptation that copes with a broad range of future hydrological conditions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

气候变化对水工程的影响及应对措施     

张建云  陆采荣  王国庆  贺瑞敏  刘翠善 《气候变化研究进展》2015,11(5):301-307

气候变化将使水利工程的服役环境发生较大改变,水工混凝土作为水利工程建设最主要的建筑材料之一,其对极端气候变化较为敏感与脆弱。本文以水库大坝、大型调水工程等水利工程为对象,系统总结了部分已观测到的低温冻害、寒潮和干旱等气候条件对水利工程影响的事实。结合未来气候变化趋势及其可能的影响,从改善水工材料性能的工程措施角度,分析了在水利工程设计、施工、运行阶段可采取的应对措施,并从规划修订、预案制订、监测预报等非工程措施角度,分析了在防洪安全、水资源安全等领域可采取的减缓适应对策,以提高水工程应对气候变化的能力。  相似文献   

西藏自治区旅游气候适应性分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

石磊  黄晓清  尼玛吉  次仁央宗  罗珍 《冰川冻土》2015,37(5):1412-1419

本文利用西藏38个气象站点的观测资料计算1980-2014年的风效指数和温湿指数,进行聚类分析,结合旅游区景观特征及行政区划等因素对西藏旅游景点进行区划,使用风效指数、温湿指数及空气含氧量指标对区划后的旅游区进行气候条件评价和趋势分析.研究表明:西藏旅游资源可分为6个区域,各区风效指数、温湿指数的空间分布呈现出自东南向西北递减的规律,东部地区生物气温相对舒适,适宜旅游的时段为3-10月,而西部地区生物气温较低,适宜旅游的时段为5-9月.逐月含氧量呈抛物线状的变化,最高值出现在8月,最低值在1月.藏东南区域含氧量相对较高,常年在60%以上,部分区域在70%以上.近年来,西藏各地气候正在向更为温暖、舒适的方向发展,西藏年风效指数和年温湿指数呈显著的线性增长趋势,增幅分别为21.79·(10a)^-1、0.32·(10a)^-1.与过去30 a相比,雅鲁藏布江流域及西藏东部部分地区近5 a的旅游适宜期延长了1~2个月.  相似文献   

Influence of stock origin and environmental conditions on the survival and growth of juvenile freshwater pearl mussels (Margaritifera margaritifera) in a cross-exposure experiment     

《Limnologica》2015

The freshwater pearl mussel (Margaritifera margaritifera) is a highly specialized and sensitive freshwater bivalve, whose survival in the juvenile phase is indicative of high quality habitats. This contribution investigates the use of juvenile freshwater pearl mussels as bioindicators, considering the influence of mussel stock and study stream conditions on juvenile performance, as described by survival and growth rates. A standardized cross experiment was carried out investigating juvenile performance in four different pearl mussel stocks originating from the Rhine, Danube and Elbe drainages, representing distinct genetic conservation units. The juveniles were exposed in five study streams which were selected to integrate pearl mussel streams with different water qualities and recruitment status of the mussel population. Per study stream, five standard mesh cages containing an equal number of 20 (10 × 2) juvenile pearl mussels per stock in separate chambers were installed. Survival and growth rates of juveniles were checked after three months (i.e. before their first winter) and after nine months (i.e. after their first winter). Mussel stock and study stream conditions significantly influenced juvenile performance. Growth rates were determined by study stream conditions and increased with stream water temperature, organic carbon and C/N ratios. Survival rates varied stock-specifically, indicating different levels of local adaptation to their native streams. Due to the detection of stream-specific differences in juvenile performance, freshwater pearl mussels appear suitable as bioindicators. However, a careful consideration of stock-specificity is necessary to avoid false interpretation of bioindication results. The comparison of stock-specific survival in native versus non-native streams implicates that exposure of juveniles outside their native habitats is able to increase breeding success or else serve for risk spreading in breeding programs.  相似文献   

近地表风沙对植物及植被的影响综述   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

赵存玉  姚正毅  薛娴 《中国沙漠》2014,34(5):1307-1312

风沙活动是干旱和半干旱地区,尤其是沙漠和沙漠化地区的重要地表营力过程之一。文章就有关近地表风沙对沙地植物及植被的影响与沙生植物及植被对风沙生境的生态适应对策和响应研究进行了归纳总结,指出了需要进一步加强的研究方向、内容,旨在为进一步深入开展相关研究提供参考与借鉴,为干旱,半干旱沙区植被恢复与重建中防风固沙植物种选择、合理配置、沙区植物资源合理利用与管理提供科技支撑。  相似文献   

IPCC 第五次评估报告关于适应气候变化与可持续发展的新认知     

段居琦  徐新武  高清竹 《气候变化研究进展》2014,10(3):197-202

IPCC发布的《气候变化2014：影响、适应和脆弱性》进一步提升了国际社会对于适应气候变化和可持续发展的认识水平,主要表现在：适应气候变化的研究视角从自然生态脆弱性转向更为广泛的社会经济脆弱性及人类的响应能力;阐明了气候风险与社会发展的关系,明确了适应在气候灾害风险管理中的积极作用;提出了减少脆弱性和暴露度及增加气候恢复能力的有效适应原则;提出了适应极限的概念,指出这一概念对于适应气候变化的政策含义;提出了保障社会可持续发展的气候恢复能力路径;强调要注重适应与减缓的协同作用和综合效应,指出转型适应是应对气候变化影响的必要选择。报告认为,气候变化、影响、适应及社会经济过程不再是一个简单的单向线性关系,需要纳入统一的系统框架下予以认识和理解。  相似文献   

《巴厘行动计划》以来适应气候变化谈判进展及未来需求分析     

李玉娥  马欣  何霄嘉 《气候变化研究进展》2014,10(2):135-141

回顾了《巴厘行动计划》以来形成的与适应气候变化议题相关的国际决议及谈判进展,分析了这些决议对推动发展中国家适应气候变化进程的可能作用和面临的障碍,综述了发展中国家和发达国家对“2015气候协议”的利益诉求和建议。作者认为：《巴厘行动计划》以来,《联合国气候变化框架公约》下适应气候变化方面的谈判取得了较明显的进展,建立了适应委员会、国家适应计划进程和应对损失与危害的国际机制等;资金、技术研发、推广和使用、政策法规、机构设置与能力、信息等是提高发展中国家适应气候变化的限制因素;资金、技术转让和能力建设仍是“2015气候协议”谈判的重点和难点。针对非洲集团和小岛屿国家联盟全球适应目标和应对气候变化造成的损失与危害的补偿的提议,作者建议加强科学研究,开发评估方法和工具,探讨气候自然变率和人类活动导致的气候变化影响的归因;同时建议中国进一步加强适应气候变化的南南合作。  相似文献   

Trend of Salt Lake Changes in the Background of Global Warming and Tactics for Adaptation to the Changes   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

ZHENG Mianping  QI Wen  JIANG Xianfeng  ZHAO Yuanyi  LI Minghui Open Laboratory of Saline Lake Resources  Environment  Chinese Academy ofGeological Sciences  Beijing R & D Center for Saline Lakes  Epithermal Deposits  Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences  Beijing 《《地质学报》英文版》2004,78(3):795-807

Salt lakes are a mirror of climatic changes and provide holographic records of environmental changes of lakes. According to a study of geological hazards in typical salt lake areas in China and other regions, the authors explain how geological hazards in salt lake areas are caused by natural agents and how humans can seek benefits, avoid hazards and reduce losses on the premise that they have monitored and mastered the trend of salt lake changes in advance and even can store flood and recharge water in lakes and extract saline resources. The climate  相似文献