The 2003 December 26 Bam earthquake (Iran), Mw 6.6, aftershock sequence   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M. Tatar  D. Hatzfeld  A. S. Moradi  A. Paul 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,163(1):90-105

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Probability of earthquake recurrence with nonuniform stress rates and time-dependent failure     

James H. Dieterich 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,126(2-4):589-617

Current methods for calculation of long-term probabilities for the recurrence of large earthquakes on specific fault segments are based upon models of the faulting process that implicitly assume constant stress rates during the interval separating earthquakes and instantaneous failure at a critical stress threshold. However, observations indicate that the process of stress recovery following an earthquake involves rate variations at all time scales in addition to stress steps caused by nearby earthquakes. Additionally, the existence of foreshocks, aftershocks and possible precursory processes suggest that there may be significant time dependence of the earthquake nucleation process. A method for determining the conditional probabilities for earthquake occurrence under conditions of irregular stressing is developed that could be useful at all time scales including those pertinent to short-and intermediate-term prediction. Used with models for earthquake occurrence at a stress threshold, the addition of variable stressing introduces a simple scaling of the conditional probabilities by stress level and stress rate. A model for the time-dependent nucleation of earthquake slip has been proposed recently that is based upon laboratory observations of fault strength. This failure criterion results in large but relatively short duration changes in the probability of earthquake recurrence particularly following stress steps. Applied to populations of earthquakes the models predicts a 1/t decay of seismicity following stress steps as observed for aftershocks and for frequency of foreshock-mainshock pairs. The model suggests that variations of seismicity rates of small earthquakes in the nucleation zone of the expected earthquake directly indicate variations in probability of recurrence of the large earthquake.  相似文献   

1991年大同—阳高5.8级地震的序列     

啜永清 《山西地震》1991,(3):13-17

对1991年3月大同—阳高5.8级地震的震源特点、序列特征及震前序列活动进行了分析研究,得出这次5.8级地震是1989年大同—阳高地震的晚期强余震、地震子序列为主余震型序列的结论。从1989年以来大同老震区的弱震活动分析表明,其弱震的几个起伏是大同及其周围应力场加强的信号,可作为今后地震监测预报的窗口。  相似文献   

Correlation of foreshocks and aftershocks and asperities     

Vindell Hsu  Charles E. Helsley  Eduard Berg  David A. Novelo-Casanova 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1984,122(6):878-893

A close correlation in spatial distribution of local seismic activity and energy release patterns before and after the 1979 Petatlan, Mexico earthquake suggests heterogeneity within the fault plane of this major low-angle thrust event associated with subduction along the Middle America Trench. A simple two-asperity model is proposed to account for the complexity. Foreshocks and aftershocks of the neighboring 1981 Playa Azul earthquake showed a similar pattern. As both events occurred at the junction of the Orozco Fracture Zone and the Middle America Trench, we speculate that the observed complex fault plane is caused by subduction of the rugged ocean floor of the Orozco Fracture Zone. Short-term precursory seismicity prior to the Petatlan earthquake can be explained by using the asperity model and migration of a slip front from the south-east to the north-west across the main shock source region.  相似文献   

Physics of fracturing and seismic energy release: A review     

S. J. Gibowicz 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1986,124(4-5):611-658

This review was prepared as an opening lecture for the International Symposium on Physics of Fracturing and Seismic Energy Release, held at the Castle of Liblice near Prague from October 28 to November 1, 1985, and organized by the Geophysical Institute of the Czechoslovak Academy of Sciences. The review attempts to classify and synthesize results of recent studies in fracture mechanics and earthquake source physics. The following topics are discussed: recent developments in fracture mechanics, earthquake source modeling, heterogeneous fault planes, foreshocks and aftershocks, faults and fractals, and moment tensor solutions. This rather broad range of topics prevents presentation of a complete list of all relevant works, though over one hundred and seventy references are cited.  相似文献   

Numerical Modeling of the Ston-Slano (Croatia) Aftershock Sequence     

Herak  Marijan  Herak  Davorka  Markušić  Snježana  Ivančić  Ines 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2001,45(3):251-266

The rate of aftershock occurrence after the M6 Ston-Slano (Croatia) earthquake is modeled as the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS). Increase of the modeled cumulative number of aftershocks with time was fitted to observations by the least-squares criterion using the combined grid-search and Monte-Carlo approach. This enabled not only the estimation of the most probable ETAS parameters, but also the determination of their confidence limits, as well as the estimation of the bias between them. It has been found that the bias is significant for some of the parameter pairs, regardless of the threshold magnitude assumed. Residual analyses revealed that all strong aftershocks (M _L 4.5) occurred during the periods of normal to high aftershock activity. There were two periods of quiescence in the sequence, both of which were followed by a strong aftershock.  相似文献   

A conjugate strike-slip fault system within the extensional tectonics of Western Turkey     

Mustafa Aktar  Hayrullah Karabulut  Serdar Özalaybey  Dean Childs 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,171(3):1363-1375

Three main shocks M-1, M-2 and M-3 (17 October 2005 at 05:45 UTC, M _w 5.4; 17 October at 09:46 UTC, M _w 5.8 and 20 October at 21:40 UTC, M _w 5.9) and their associated aftershocks within the Gulf of S i ğac i k, 50 km southwest of Izmir, Turkey were studied in detail. A temporary seismic network deployed during the activity allowed the hypocentre of M-3 and subsequent aftershocks to be determined with high accuracy. A relative relocation technique was used to improve the epicentres of M-1 and M-2. All three main shocks have strike-slip mechanisms which agree with the linear trends of the aftershock locations. Two distinct zones were illuminated by the aftershock locations. The zones contain clear echelon patterns with slightly different orientations from the trend of the aftershock distribution. M-2 and M-3 ruptured along of the eastern rupture zone which aligns N45°E. However the strike direction of M-1 is not clearly identified. The alignment of the two rupture zones intersect at their southern terminus at an angle of 90°. The fault zones form conjugate pair system and static triggering is considered as a probable mechanism for the sequential west to east occurrence of M-1, M-2 and M-3. This earthquake sequence provides seismological evidence for conjugate strike-slip faulting co-existing within a region dominated by north–south extension and well-developed east–west trending normal faults.  相似文献   

Expansion of aftershock areas caused by propagating post-seismic sliding   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Naoyuki Kato 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,168(2):797-808

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Source mechanism of the 2000 November 15 Lake Van earthquake (M_w= 5.6) in eastern Turkey and its seismotectonic implications     

A. Pinar  Y. Honkura  K. Kuge  M. Matsushima  N. Sezgin  M. Yilmazer  Z. Ö&#;ütçü 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,170(2):749-763

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Coulomb static stress variations in the Kachchh, Gujarat, India: Implications for the occurrences of two recent earthquakes (M_w= 5.6) in the 2001 Bhuj earthquake region     

Prantik Mandal  R. K. Chadha  I. P. Raju  N. Kumar  C. Satyamurty  R. Narsaiah  A. Maji 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,169(1):281-285

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